China Life 2628;

[winston]

vested

China Life Insurance to double its 2024 profit as investment income rises

China Life Insurance (2628) expects its earnings to jump by more than 122 percent last year as income from investment surged.

The state-owned company estimated that the net profit will be in a range of 102.4 billion yuan (HK$110.2 billion) to HK$112.6 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of approximately 122 percent to 144 percent, a filing on Friday said.

The stock market rebounded rapidly after a period of low volatility, resulting in a substantial year-on-year increase in the total investment returns of the insurer, it said.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... come-rises

[winston]

<Research>CMBI: CHINA LIFE 4Q24 Potential NP Drop May be due to Investment Volatility

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)'s net profit in 4Q24 may sink due to investment volatility, despite better capital market, according to a research report by CMBI.

Considering the investment volatility, the broker revised down its EPS forecast on CHINA LIFE for 2024 by 14% to RMB3.85, while that for 2025 and 2026 were raised by 4% and 8% to RMB2.68 and RMB2.81 respectively.

The broker estimated that the NBV of CHINA LIFE will grow by 19.2% and 9.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and maintained its target price of HKD20 for CHINA LIFE H-shares with a Buy rating.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance (2628 HK / 601628 CH) - Strong results expected but less visibility on dividends

We expect China Life to be a key beneficiary of the medium-term growth trend of increasing demand for protection and wealth management by China’s rising middle class, given that it is a leading domestic life insurer with ~15-20% estimated market share.

The regulatory shift towards more long-term and protection product mix is positive for future margins but near-term performance may be bumpy amid volatile equity market conditions and long-term Chinese government bond yields which have trended below historical average levels.

Looking ahead, we expect management to focus on continued improvements in the quality and productivity of its agent force to bolster its new business value (NBV) growth.

Given the divergence between reported net profits under the old and new accounting standards, there were uncertainties over China Life’s dividends leading up to its FY23 results announcement.

This eventually saw a dip of 12% when results were released.

For its upcoming FY24 results, we believe there is still low visibility on the amount of dividends it will declare, despite the expected significant jump in its earnings. HOLD.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance first-half profit up by 6.9 percent to 40.9 billion yuan

China Life Insurance (2628) recorded a 6.9 percent rise in first-half net profit to 40.9 billion yuan (HK$44.45 billion), and proposed an interim dividend of 23.8 fen. 

New business value, a key metric to insurers, jumped by over 20 percent to 28.55 billion yuan in the six months.

Gross written premiums saw a 7.3 percent growth to a record 525.1 billion yuan, and revenue also rose 2.2 percent to 239.5 billion yuan. 

China Life’s total assets reached nearly 7.3 trillion yuan as of the end of June. The embedded value was 1.48 trillion yuan, up by 5.5 percent from a year ago. 

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/310096/

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance's 2025 profit surges 44pc to 154.1 billion yuan

China Life Insurance (2628) recorded a 44.1 percent surge in 2025 net profit to 154.1 billion yuan (HK$174.6 billion) and lifted the final dividend by 37 percent to 61.8 fen. 

Together with the interim dividend, the full-year payout rose 31.7 percent to 85.6 fen. 

New business value, a key metric to insurers, jumped by 35.7 percent to 45.8 billion yuan.

Gross written premiums saw an 8.7 percent growth to 729.9 billion yuan, and revenue also grew 16.5 percent to 616.1 billion yuan. 

Embedded value stood at 1.47 trillion yuan, remaining at the top of the industry, the company said.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/327689/

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance Southbound’s double-edged sword

China Life has not avoided the significant swing of Southbound (SB) flows, with the industry seeing SB flows at more than 4 s.d. below mean in Mar (Fig 1).

Relative-to-peers, China Life’s SB flows seem to be less under pressure, with SB flows “only” 1.8 s.d. below the mean in Mar (industry average was -4.4) (Fig 3).

We continue to see China Life’s bancassurance channel benefitting from conversion of a wave of maturing time deposits into savings insurance policies (Fig 6).

China Life’s H-share price remains highly leveraged to both Southbound flows and the A-share market with over 95% correlation coefficients to both of these factors.

We reiterate Add, with a lower TP of HK$41.9, due to a lower sustainable ROE assumption. It remains one of our sector top picks.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 89C7159578

[winston]

not vested

<Research>BofAS Keeps Buy Rating on CHINA LIFE (02628.HK), Expects 1Q NBV to Grow 20-30%

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) 's 2025 net profit rose 44%YoY, BofA Securities issued a research report saying.

In 4Q25, due to a significant QoQ decline in investment income and lower insurance service revenue, the Company recorded a net loss of RMB13.7 billion.

The broker expected CHINA LIFE's 1Q26 new business value to grow by 20-30%.

However, due to the Company's aggressive investment strategy, BofA Securities anticipated a YoY decline in net profit, but believed that short-term fluctuations in investment income should not affect its forecasts for the Company's long-term and normal investment returns.

BofA Securities raised its 2026 earnings forecast for CHINA LIFE by 5%, but lowered its 2027 earnings forecast by 1%.

The broker kept its target price/ rating for CHINA LIFE's H-shares at $33.1/ Buy.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

not vested

<Research>CLSA: CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) 2025 DPS Up 32% Exceeds Initial Guidance; Rating Outperform

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)'s 2025 net profit was in line, with a proposed final DPS of RMB0.618, and a full-year DPS reaching RMB0.856, representing a 32% YoY rise, topping previous guidance, CLSA said in its research report.

The full-year net profit hiked 44% YoY to RMB154.078 billion, implying a net loss of RMB13 billion in 4Q25, which the broker viewed within expectations due to already-high earnings growth and capital market adjustments in 4Q25.

Related News: BofAS Maintains 'Buy' Rating on China Life (02628.HK), Expects 1Q24 New Business Value to Grow 20-30%

In light of the recent adjustments in the A-share market, CLSA revised its earnings and book value forecasts but maintained CHINA LIFE H-share target price at HKD33 and the A-share (601628.SH) target price at RMB45.

The H-share rating was Outperform, and the A-share rating was Hold.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

not vested

<Research> M Stanley Cuts CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) TP to HKD37.9, Rates Overweight

Morgan Stanley issued a research report after China Life Insurance (02628.HK) announced its full-year 2025 results, updating the groups risk-reward forecast.

The target price for its H-shares was lowered from HKD43.1 to HKD37.9, with a rating of "Overweight".

The bank's forecasts for shareholder-attributable profit for this year and next year remain largely unchanged, with variations within 0.5%.

M Stanley stated that China Life Insurance is the largest state-owned life insurer in China and is placing greater focus on value growth and market-oriented mechanisms, with its strategy expected to remain stable.

The bank noted that China Life Insurance's product strategy in 2024 and 2025 was more prudent than that of most peers, with lower interest rate risk associated with new business.

It is regarded as a high-quality insurer in mainland China, and the bank expects the value of new business (VNB) to achieve healthy growth in 2026. (hc/da)

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

JPM: CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) 1Q New Business Value Surges 75.5% YoY Far Above Expectations; Reiterates Overweight as Top Pick

JPM released a research report stating that CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) 's 1Q results are likely to trigger market divergence.

The bank maintains a positive view, believing that strong new life insurance policy sales form a compelling equity story, largely offsetting the significant decline in earnings caused by A-share market volatility.

New business value in 1Q surged 75.5% YoY, far exceeding the banks expectation of above 20%.

Momentum in both agency and bancassurance channels remained robust, achieving growth despite a high base in 1Q last year, indicating market share gains and deeper distribution channel capabilities.

The bank noted that net profit for the period fell 32% YoY to RMB19.5 billion, below its forecast of a 13% decline.

It believes this does not pose significant share price risk, as the dividend policy has shifted to a progressive framework that decouples dividends from reported earnings.

Market consensus has already factored in a 19% YoY decline in FY26 net profit, with earnings risks partly reflected in valuation.

The core solvency adequacy ratio rose 28 ppts QoQ to 157%, a leading level within the industry.


JPM reiterated CHINA LIFE as its top pick with an Overweight rating, expecting a positive share price reaction.

The TP is HKD40, based on 8x projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio. (ec/w)

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN