Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Strait of Hormuz

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran, are expected to result in widespread disruptions to global shipping, with reports that Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to traffic.

The strait is the gateway to the Persian Gulf and the world’s biggest energy choke point, handling roughly one-third of all seaborne crude oil.

The US Navy has issued a stark warning to the shipping industry, advising merchant ships to avoid a “maritime warning zone” covering the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, according to an online post by Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer of the Baltic and International Maritime Council, an international shipping association.

Source: SCMP

[winston]

Strait of Hormuz

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global crude with about 13 million barrels per day moving through it in 2025, could lead to a 1970s-style energy shock.

If Iran closes the Strait, it could "drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices retest the record highs of 2022," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

Source: CNBC

[winston]

Opec+ confirms 206k barrel-a-day production hike for April

Source: The Edge

[winston]

US-Iran risks - what about the LNG market?

Qatar accounts for around 20% of global LNG trade and all exports transit the Strait of Hormuz, making even temporary shipping disruptions highly market-sensitive

Spot LNG prices have barely reacted to US–Iran escalation, suggesting markets may be pricing low probability rather than high impact

North Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) is most exposed given near-total LNG import dependence for power generation, while China is relatively buffered by domestic supply and pipeline gas

A short disruption would likely cause price spikes and freight premia, while a prolonged interruption could trigger structural repricing and demand destruction in price-sensitive Asian markets

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/indu ... ecid=29881

[behappyalways]

Satellite Images Reveal Aftermath Of Drone Attack On Saudi Arabia's Biggest Refinery
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-sh ... one-strike

[behappyalways]

Trump Announces US To Cover Insurance For All Ships Traveling Through Gulf, Will Provide US Navy Escorts
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/oil ... ce-tankers

[winston]

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says oil market well supplied amid Iran war

"The crude markets are very well supplied. ​There are hundreds of millions of barrels on ⁠the water away from the Gulf. But ​more importantly, we have a series of announcements that ​we're going to be making".

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/325870/

[behappyalways]

China Halts Diesel, Gasoline Exports As Paralyzed Hormuz Risks Energy Shock
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china- ... ergy-shock


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china- ... ergy-shock
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us ... tures.html

[behappyalways]

Kuwait cuts oil production as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global energy market
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/07/kuwait- ... ormuz.html

[winston]

SPR

G7 nations, alongside other IEA members, hold over 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency strategic oil reserves.

As of March 2026, amid rising prices, discussions are underway for a coordinated release of 300 million to 400 million barrels, which constitutes roughly 25-30% of these total reserves.

The U.S. specifically holds approximately 351 million to 695 million barrels in its own stockpile.

Source: Council of Foreign Relations