An uneasy calm takes hold in the global economyAcross the rest of Asia, 2026 marks a shift in growth drivers. Export-led expansion, which carried much of Asia through 2025, is giving way to investment-driven growth.
Standard Chartered's Eric Robertsen notes that increased European spending on defence and infrastructure, has the potential to spur growth as monetary policy becomes less supportive and export momentum fades.
by Eric Robertsen
Global growth in 2026 is expected to remain at 3.4 per cent, unchanged from 2025.
Much of the resilience seen in 2025 reflected two factors.
The first was a wave of export front-loading, as firms rushed shipments to the US ahead of potential tariff increases.
The second was consumer behaviour that was more robust than expected, supported by easing inflation, strong labour markets and monetary easing.
In 2026, we expect exports to play a smaller role as front-loading fades. While the consumer will stay resilient in 2026, growth will increasingly be supported by domestic investment and fiscal policy.
Most central banks are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles as disinflationary progress slows.
While inflationary pressures have eased across much of the world, they are building more clearly in the US as more businesses pass tariff-related costs to consumers.
Source: Business Times
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... al-economy
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