JD.com (JD), 9618 HK; 02 (Mar 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

3Q25 Results Preview: Top-line Growth Moderates; Profitability To Improve On Easing FD Price War

JD’s 3Q25 top-line growth remains solid and was guided to grow at low teens, down from 2Q25 revenue growth of 22.4% yoy due to the high base effect last year.

Management guided easing FD investment intensity in 3Q25 alongside order volume expansion.

Meanwhile, 4Q25 promotions are expected to further boost cross-channel synergies between retail and food delivery.

Management targets breakeven in food delivery in the medium term.
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Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$167.00 (US$43.00), up from HK$166.00.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

Food delivery loss likely narrowed qoq in 3Q25F

We estimate JD’s total 3Q25F revenue grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb295.7bn, while non-GAAP net profit decreased by 67.2% yoy to Rmb4.3bn.

Food delivery loss likely narrowed qoq to Rmb10bn in 3Q25F (from Rmb13bn in 2Q25), helped by improving unit economics and order volume.

We estimate JD retail’s rose 10.6% yoy in 3Q25F, with a 5.5% operating margin, mainly helped by strong growth in the general merchandise category.

We believe new business loss further expanded in 3Q25F, dragged by JD Jingxi and international businesses.

Reiterate Add, with a higher DCF-based TP of HK$157.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4A4466CFD6

[winston]

<Research>CICC: JD-SW (09618.HK) Rating Kept at Outperform; Profit Beats on Solid Retail Performance/ Narrowed Losses from Food Delivery

CICC published a research report forecasting JD-SW (09618.HK) 3Q25 revenue to increase by 14% YoY to RMB297.1 billion, and non-GAAP net profit to decline by 67% YoY to RMB4.3 billion, higher than CICC's previous expectations, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.5%.

The broker anticipated that JD-SW's 3Q25 revenue growth in electronic categories will slow down, but daily necessities will continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate.

The solid profit margin for retail business and better-than-expected food delivery losses may drive 3Q25 net profit to beat prior predictions.

Considering the recent lower-than-expected new business losses, CICC raised its 2025 adjusted net profit forecast for JD-SW by 1.8% to RMB27.5 billion, and maintained its 2026 profit forecast at RMB38.4 billion.

Therefore, the broker kept rating/ target price for JD.com (JD.US) at Outperform/ US$41, corresponding to an 11x adjusted PE ratio for 2026 and a 28.7% upside.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

<Research>M Stanley Downgrades JD.com (JD.US) to Underweight on Aftereffects of Trade-in Subsidies

Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com (JD.US) from Equalweight to Underweight, with a target price of US$28 for its ADRs.

Compared to BABA-W (09988.HK) (BABA.US) and PDD Holdings (PDD.US), JD.com has benefited the most from China's trade-in subsidies, but the policy effect is waning and has become a high base since last quarter.

JD.com's 4Q25 revenue growth is expected to slow to 5.6% YoY, with sales of home appliance and electronics possibly declining YoY. Revenue growth is estimated to further slow to 4.4% next year.

This situation will reduce the Company's operating leverage over the next 12 months, and its continued investment in new businesses will also drag down its long-term profit margins and return on equity (ROE).

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

not vested

China's JD.com tops third-quarter revenue estimates as demand holds up

JD.com, which is the top retailer of home appliances in China, has also benefited from government-backed trade-in policies that allow consumers to exchange older appliances for newer ones.

The company reported a 14.9 percent rise in total revenue to 299.1 billion yuan (HK$326.82 billion) in the third quarter ended September 30, compared with analysts' average estimate of 294.05 billion yuan, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Quarterly net income attributable to JD.com's ordinary shareholders fell to 5.3 billion yuan from 11.7 billion yuan a year earlier, owing to the company's hefty investments in international expansion and new business segments.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/316724/

[winston]

not vested

JD-SW Craters ~4% as CEO Sandy Xu Says National Subsidy Demand Slows in ST, but Can Promote Industrial Upgrade

JD-SW (09618.HK) 's 3Q25 non-GAAP net income dropped by 56% YoY to RMB5.8 billion, beating the forecasts of RMB3.35-5 billion from 16 brokers as summarized by our reporters.

Related News: JD LOGISTICS 3Q NP RMB2.03B, Down 7.9% YoY

JD-SW's CEO, Sandy Xu, responded to the issue of slowing national subsidy demand by saying that, since last year, national subsidy policies significantly stimulated consumer demand, particularly for home appliances and computers, according to Chinese media.

This also inevitably led to a high base situation in industry growth in the short term.

However, more importantly, national subsidies can drive the upgrade of the whole home appliance industry, promoting product innovation, intellectualization and greening, so as to inject momentum for high quality growth in the industry.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

Brokers│Opinion

Jefferies│Quarterly results beat and long-term themes remain

Daiwa│Last quarter's GPM beat

Goldman Sachs│JD Retail's core performance strong

Nomura│4Q25 guidance weak

Citi│Last quarter's results beat

CLSA│Challenging times lying ahead

CICC│JD Retail's 3Q25 profit margin beat and food delivery losses narrowed QoQ

BOCI│3Q25 performance dismal, focus on strategic execution

Morgan Stanley│Operating profit missed

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

<Research>G Sachs Rates JD-SW as Buy; 3Q Rev. Growth Solid

According to a report from Goldman Sachs, JD-SW (09618.HK) achieved strong revenue growth of 15% YoY in 3Q25, 1% and 2% higher than the broker's and the market's forecasts, respectively.

Its JD Retail even reached a record-breaking profit margin of 5.9%.

In Goldman Sachs' opinion, JD Retail's profit was solid in 9M25, maintaining a YoY increase of 34%, surpassing the full-year level for FY24, which may prompt JD-SW to adopt an aggressive investment strategy in new growth areas.

Related News: JD LOGISTICS 3Q NP RMB2.03B, Down 7.9% YoY

Goldman Sachs gave JD-SW a Buy rating and a target price of HKD174.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN