AIA Group 1299

[winston]

A Capital question mark?

AIA fell 4.4% today, following a pre-market block trade of 394.4m shares (3.7% of its shares) at HK$68, 6% below yesterday’s close.

While we cannot confirm the seller, we think Capital Group could be a likely seller, given its steady sell-down of its stake from Jan-Oct 2024 to below 5%.

If this is true, we see this large sell-down as a positive as we believe it removes a share price overhang.

Reiterate Add rating on stronger FY25F-27F DPS and VONB growth and capital management initiatives, with an unchanged TP of HK$103.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... F31E6BEE37

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group (1299 HK) 1H25: In-line VONB Growth;

Strong OPAT Beat AIA’s 1H25 VONB growth was in line with our expectation, mainly driven by solid growth in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Although AIA China still reported negative VONB growth due to assumption changes, margin expansion and strong growth targets in new regions will restore investor confidence in its growth story.

In addition, OPAT growth was a solid beat, supported by higher CSM release and improved operating variances.

Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

Aggressive growth target for AIA China

1H25 VONB growth of 14% y/y slightly below consensus; strong margin (+3.4ppt y/y) and CSM growth (+13.5% y/y)

Aggressive target of 40% VONB CAGR for AIA China’s new expanded geographies during 2025-2030 a pleasant surprise

Clear agent and agent leader development path, leveraging AI-driven models for customer and agent-side efficiency and future growth

Revise down FY25/26F earnings by 14%/5% to reflect the fair value changes of participating portfolio, but maintain VNOB, EV, and DPS forecasts; maintain BUY with TP of HKD100

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=27454