not vested
Tesla - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* US 200.00
Recommendation SELL
Tesla Inc. – Earnings decline to a 4-year low1Q25 results were below our expectations.
1Q25 Revenue/Adj. PATMI was at 17%/12% of our FY25e forecasts.
Adj. PATMI (excl. stock-based compensation, “SBC”) fell due to lower auto revenue, lower margins from lower average selling prices (ASPs), and higher OPEX from AI projects.
337k deliveries (-13% YoY), a record YoY decline and the lowest since 2Q22’s 255k.
Gross margins contracted by 110bps to 16.3%, the lowest since 2Q19’s 14.5%.
ASPs declined for the 9th quarter, while auto revenue fell 20% YoY.
We reduce our FY25e revenue/PATMI estimates by 18%/63% to reflect margin headwinds due to soft pricing, lowered demand, US tariffs on China exports, and the EV tax credit removal.
We lower our DCF target price to US$200 (prev. US$265) and maintain our SELL recommendation.
Our WACC/growth rate assumptions of 9%/5% remain unchanged.
We are still cautious on TSLA with multiple headwinds of tariffs, loss of tax credit and market share loss in China.
Source: Phillips
https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/TSLA/It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
