HK & China - Market Direction 01 (May08 - Oct08)

[winston]

Dow: up 121
Dow Futures: Flat
Nikkei: up 0.5%
SSE: Close
HK pre-market: up 60 points only

1) SSE is close so HK will it's direction from the US
2) The US$700b package will be passed but it has not been reflected in the Dow futures yet
3) Also, Window dressing time.
4) Should be ok to buy a call today

[winston]

HSI down 275 now. Much weaker than expected.

A lot of the HK properties are being hit because HSBC lowered interest rates by 0.5%.

Also, Ping An is very weak because of it's investment in Fortis.

Still very tempted to buy a Call but that means betting against the market... very dangerous to think that I'm right and the market is wrong

[winston]

If you are a short-term trader, the trend is your friend. And it is very obvious what the trend is today ....

The market will first gap down. Thereafter, if there is a technical rebound, I may buy a Put for today only. ( It is a holiday in HK tomorrow so I dont want to carry my put over the holiday. A day is a lifetime, if you are on the wrong side of a big bet ) .

Potential Risks:-
1) HK may ban short-selling
2) The garment may want to support the market
3) Window dressing for the quarter ( quite unlikely now )
4) The shorts may cover some of their positions today as they are now sitting on good windfall profits

[financecaptain]

Beware ! Yet again maybe good long term investment opportunity ! Stock markets are likely to experience meltdown today. After what happened to US Congress and Wall Street yesterday .... Winter and I do not mean Christmas, is definitely coming .... Party is suspended temporarily.

[winston]

Ok, HSI was down 1100 this morning. It is now down 480.

Time to buy a put ?

When the opportunity comes, I need to separate the facts from the impression ( noise )..

[winston]

Hong Kong central bank unveils plan to help banking sector
AFP, HONG KONG

Hong Kong’s de facto central bank yesterday announced a package of temporary measures aimed at increasing liquidity into the city’s nervous banking system as financial turmoil dried up credit.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) unveiled five moves to try to increase assistance to the city’s banks, which are reluctant to lend to each other because of the recent turmoil in the credit markets.

“Continuing stress in the financial systems of developed markets has caused some concern among licensed banks in Hong Kong over the credit worthiness of each other,” an HKMA spokesman said.

“This concern, together with a wish to preserve liquidity to meet their own contingent needs, has led to a general shortage of interbank liquidity and difficulties on the part of individual licensed banks in obtaining funding in the interbank market,” he said.

“The five measures will provide further tools for the HKMA to help ensure that Hong Kong’s banking system continues to function effectively,” the spokesman said in a statement.

The five technical measures include lending term money to banks for up to one month against credit-worthy capital, extending repayment periods for some borrowing, removing some penalties and lending against US dollar assets.

It will also consider requests to conduct foreign exchange swaps between the US and Hong Kong dollar.

The measures will be introduced tomorrow and remain in place until March.

The spokesman said Hong Kong’s banking system was healthy and robust, and was well prepared for the turbulent conditions.

[winston]

Hmmm..... must be a bad report then. ( As if the world cares what the IMF has to say ).

================================

IMF delays China report

The International Monetary Fund has delayed holding discussions about a report on China's economy and its currency to avoid adding to upheaval in global markets, the head of the IMF said.

Global growth is expected to weaken in the face of the world wide credit crisis. Analysts say China's growth will also soften this year, but remain close to 10 percent so providing welcome support to a struggling global economy.

"We have delayed [the report] just because it was obvious that there was no need to risk further problems in the current situation,'' IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

Ties between the IMF and China have been strained since the fund introduced new currency surveillance rules last year.

REUTERS

[-dol-]

"We have delayed [the report] just because it was obvious that there was no need to risk further problems in the current situation,'' IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

How else would the market view such a comment?

Sometimes, no news is bad news.

[LenaHuat]

"We have delayed [the report] just because it was obvious that there was no need to risk further problems in the current situation,'' IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

How else would the market view such a comment?

Sometimes, no news is bad news.

What else could it be but problematic news?

[kennynah]

in this US based problem, IMF is not a participant, I guess