Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Oil falls as investors weigh ample 2025 supply outlook

Investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against Opec+ delaying its planned output increase by three months to April 2025.

The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts will start from next April with monthly increases of 138,000 bpd and lasting 18 months until September 2026. Opec+ pumps around half the world's oil.

The market is facing a surplus, there is no shortage of oil and there is not really any flashing sign of what to look forward to in the future to rally prices,".

And expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month will further ease the dollar's strength and support the oil market.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/202 ... ly-outlook

[behappyalways]

Five Takeaways From The Historic Russian-Indian Oil Deal

Russia agreed to supply India with nearly half a million barrels of discounted oil a day for 10 years in a deal that’s worth $13 billion a year at today’s prices and amounts to 0.5% of global supply.

1. Reliable Revenue & Accelerated Growth
2. Russia’s South Asian Energy Pivot
3. OPEC+ Probably Won’t Mind All That Much
4. Trump Isn’t Expected To Sanction India
5. China’s Basement-Bargain Price Demands Backfired

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... e_vignette

[behappyalways]

Saudi Arabia Becomes Top Buyer Of Russian Fuel Oil
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/saudi- ... n-fuel-oil

[winston]

Get Ready to Buy Big Oil

by Jeff Clark

XLE is currently trading at about the same price it was back in August. The sector is just about as oversold as it was back then as well.

And, the BPENER is on the verge of generating a buy signal.

This looks like a bullish setup to me. And, with the incoming Trump administration chanting the mantra of “Drill baby drill,” 2025 could prove to be a good year for the oil stocks.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/01/10/g ... y-big-oil/

[behappyalways]

Trump Vows To Refill SPR "Right To The Top" As China Tanker Rates Soar
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/t ... rates-soar

[behappyalways]

Russian Oil Flows From Second Biggest Baltic Port Unexpectedly Tumble
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/r ... dly-tumble

[behappyalways]

The United States remains the top producer of oil globally
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1883176652542239098

[winston]

Hedge funds boost bearish oil bets as trade war threatens demand

WTI futures traded in a US$4.75 range this week, buffeted by the president’s various pronouncements and actions, before ultimately posting their third straight weekly decline.

To be sure, some concerns about supply shortages remain amid the possibility of further sanctions on Iran and Russia, as well as potential tariffs on crude from Canada and Mexico.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ens-demand

[winston]

Saudi Aramco Boosts Oil Prices to Asia as Mideast Crude Soars (Bloomberg)

What’s our take?

Crude prices around the world could diverge substantially.

Asian demand for crude from the Middle East is rising due to new sanctions on Russian exports, while the US is trying to ‘drive Iran’s oil exports to zero’.

Meanwhile, oil inventories in the US rose unexpectedly, causing the price of West Texas crude to drop 2%.

The different types of oil produced in different parts of the world have always traded at different prices, but arbitrage opportunities kept them somewhat correlated.

If the market continues to ‘de-globalize’ there will be more divergence between prices in different regions, and more volatility if supply shocks occur.

Source: Simply Wall Street

[behappyalways]

European Oil Demand Set To Spike As Gas Prices Surge Beyond $100 A Barrel Equivalent
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/europe ... equivalent