US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Risk Control & CTA Buying: Potential $150-200 billion buying...and $25-50 billion in stock weekly buybacks through year-end.
https://x.com/themarketear/status/1854975931703582922

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Blackstone (BX)... asset management
Morningstar (MORN)... financial services
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)... cybersecurity
Cisco Systems (CSCO)... network technology
Nvidia (NVDA)... semiconductor giant
Texas Instruments (TXN)... semiconductors
GoDaddy (GDDY)... website hosting
Twilio (TWLO)... cloud services
Netflix (NFLX)... video streaming
Expedia (EXPE)... online travel agency
DoorDash (DASH)... food-delivery app
Cava (CAVA)... restaurants
Marriott International (MAR)... hotels
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)... homebuilder
Watsco (WSO)... HVAC equipment
Johnson Controls (JCI)... HVAC and security
LabCorp (LH)... medical testing
Ryder System (R)... logistics
Leidos (LDOS)... defense contractor
ONEOK (OKE)... natural gas
Cheniere Energy (LNG)... natural gas
Williams Companies (WMB)... natural gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

[behappyalways]

The S&P 500 is quite expensive here. We really need to see some explosive earnings growth. Otherwise multiple compression could come from stocks losing some of their recent gains. Either way, not a bad place to trim some of the more expensive and extended positions.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1855609420094283897


What a run it's been! US financial assets are back to trading at 6.3x GDP, just as they were in late 2021 before the market slipped as the Fed hiked. The backdrop is quite a bit different this time, however.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1855597667071430967

[winston]

Souring S&P 500 profit outlook a bad sign for stock market rally

Corporate America’s earnings growth over the next year, which could pump the brakes on the blistering stock market rally before long.

A key indicator known as earnings-revision momentum – a gauge of upward-to-downward changes to expected per-share earnings over the next 12 months for the S&P 500 – has slumped into negative territory and is hovering near its second-worst reading in the past year,

Souring outlook on profit growth may dent a further S&P 500 advance after this year’s run made valuations stretched and positioning elevated.

The benchmark has been on track for its second consecutive year of gains, rising more than 20 per cent, and is at its most expensive level since April 2021.

“The big issue heading into 2025 is whether the Fed will be able to continue easing policy and if earnings momentum will favour laggards outside of Big Tech.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... rket-rally

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

PNC Financial Services (PNC)... financial services
Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)... reinsurance
Cisco Systems (CSCO)... networking tech
Sea Limited (SE)... Singaporean tech giant
Autodesk (ADSK)... software and 3D modeling
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... live events
Fox (FOX)... mass media
DoorDash (DASH)... food-delivery app
Simon Property Group (SPG)... shopping centers
Honeywell (HON)... manufacturing
Johnson Controls (JCI)... industrial equipment
Kinder Morgan (KMI)... oil and gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas
L3Harris Technologies (LHX)... defense contractor

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Biogen (BIIB)... biotechnology
Moderna (MRNA)... biotechnology
STMicroelectronics (STM)... chipmaker

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

US Stocks are certainly outperforming the rest of the world.

It is now at a 75-year high!
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1857403929518383424

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Express (AXP)... financial giant
PNC Financial Services (PNC)... financial services
Brown & Brown (BRO)... insurance
MetLife (MET)... insurance
Progressive (PGR)... insurance
W.R. Berkley (WRB)... insurance
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)... Warren Buffett's holding company
Moody's (MCO)... credit-ratings firm
Imax (IMAX)... movie theaters
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... gyms
Procter & Gamble (PG)... consumer goods
Walmart (WMT)... "World Dominator" of discount retail
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Kimco Realty (KIM)... retail REIT
Tanger (SKT)... retail REIT
Digital Realty Trust (DLR)... data-center REIT
Dover (DOV)... manufacturing
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Amgen (AMGN)... drugmaker
Guess (GES)... apparel
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)... brewing giant

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

European equities are underperforming their US counterparts by the most in 48 years!
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1863221525777666233


Amazing. US stocks are trading at a 75-year high in relative terms vs European equities
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1863223215163658552

[behappyalways]

Fascinating chart. Never before has optimism been so great when valuations were so high. Is this what euphoria looks like?
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1864053927659921502

[winston]

As Big Tech profit growth slows, investors hunt for a new thing

The Magnificent Seven tech giants – Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – are expected to post a combined earnings increase of 18 per cent in 2025, down from a projected 34 per cent for 2024.

Strip out Nvidia, arguably the biggest beneficiary of Wall Street’s AI mania, the rest of the group is expected to post a measly 3 per cent increase in profits in 2025.

The S&P 500 Index’s earnings growth is projected to reach 13 per cent in 2025, up from 10 per cent this year. In other words, the tech giants are no longer setting the pace for Corporate America.

In the week through Dec 4, the information technology group had its largest outflow in six weeks at US$1.4 billion.

Small-cap stocks, which have been trailing the broader market this year, had US$4.6 billion of inflows, putting them at an annualised record high of more than US$30 billion.

Last week, the Magnificent Seven companies traded at 41 times projected earnings, the highest valuation multiple since early 2022. The entire S&P 500 has seen a jump as well, with its ratio of 23 times the highest since 2021.

I’d rather buy the rest of the S&P 500 at 18 times (forward earnings) versus the entire S&P 500 at 23 or 24 times.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... -new-thing