China Life 2628; ADR (LFC)

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance
A better 1Q24F NBV growth outlook

We expect China Life to have a stronger NBV growth in 1Q24F at the cost of a weaker NBV growth in 4Q23F, given its early preparation for 2024 presales.

3Q23’s net profit fell by 104% yoy under new accounting standards, primarily due to the weak stock market which could extend to 4Q23F, in our view.

We expect China Life to be more sensitive to the equity market compared to its peers, considering its higher mix of equity investments at FVTPL.

We reiterate Add rating; TP cut to HK$15.60 due to lower sustainable ROEV.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 6DF728B4BA

[winston]

not vested

China Life Insurance (2628 HK / 601628 CH) - On a stronger footing

We expect China Life to be a key beneficiary of the medium-term growth trend of increasing demand for protection and wealth management by China’s rising middle class, given that it is a leading domestic life insurer with ~15-20% estimated market share.

The regulatory shift towards more long-term and protection product mix is positive for future margins but near-term performance may be bumpy amid the current challenging operating environment hampered by volatile equity market conditions and long-term Chinese government bond yields which have trended below historical average levels.

Looking ahead, we expect management to focus on continued improvements in the quality and productivity of its agent force to bolster its new business value (NBV) growth.

Given the divergence between reported net profits under the old and new accounting standards, there were uncertainties over China Life’s dividends leading up to its FY23 results announcement.

This eventually saw a dip of 12% when results were released. BUY (2628 HK) / SELL (601628 CH).

Source: OCBC

[winston]

vested

China Life Insurance (2628 HK / 601628 CH) - Still room for fiscal policy support ahead

We expect China Life to be a key beneficiary of the medium-term growth trend of increasing demand for protection and wealth management by China’s rising middle class, given that it is a leading domestic life insurer with ~15-20% estimated market share.

The regulatory shift towards more long-term and protection product mix is positive for future margins but near-term performance may be bumpy amid the current challenging operating environment hampered by volatile equity market conditions and long-term Chinese government bond yields which have trended below historical average levels.

Looking ahead, we expect management to focus on continued improvements in the quality and productivity of its agent force to bolster its new business value (NBV) growth.

Given the divergence between reported net profits under the old and new accounting standards, there were uncertainties over China Life’s dividends leading up to its FY23 results announcement.

This eventually saw a dip of 12% when results were released. BUY (2628 HK) / SELL (601628 CH).

Source: OCBC

[winston]

vested

Market rally boosts China Life's fortunes

Profit for the first nine months is expected to increase as much as 185 percent, buoyed by investment returns.

Net income will reach between 101.1 billion yuan (HK$110.5 billion) and 108.8 billion yuan, a surge between 165 percent and 185 percent.

Chinese insurers' profits have the potential to double on average this year if their equity and fund holdings can appreciate 20 percent, even though bond yields have fallen.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... s-fortunes

[winston]

vested

<Alert>CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) Forecasts 1-3Q NP to Rocket 165-185% YoY

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) announced that, based on its preliminary estimates, net profit for 1-3Q24 is expected to range between around RMB101.135 billion to RMB108.767 billion under China Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises (ASBE), marking a YoY spike of around 165-185%.

Dividend History
Announce Date Event Particular
2024/08/29 Interim D:RMB 0.2
2024/04/26 Quarter 1 No Dividend
2024/03/27 Final D:RMB 0.43 (equivalent to HKD 0.47127)
2023/10/26 Quarter 3 No Dividend

The company noted that the significant stock market rebound in 3Q has resulted in a substantial YoY increase in the company’s investment returns.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

Insurer's earnings skyrocket 17-fold

by June Chen

Net profit surge more than 17-fold in the third quarter year-on-year to more than 66 billion yuan (HK$72.01 billion),

Revenue in the third quarter reached 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124 percent.

Gross investment income of 261 billion in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 152.4 percent.

The gross investment yield was 5.38 percent.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... et-17-fold

[winston]

vested

CHINA LIFE Collapses ~5% Amid Rumors of CN Reducing Life Insurance Product Predetermined Rates Next Season

2025/01/10

Rumor has it that China will lower the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products next season, heaping pressure on Chinese insurers today (10th).

Related NewsJPM: Rising Flu Cases in CN May Pose Adverse Claim Loss Risks for PICC P&C/ PING AN/ AIA

The market today was abuzz with news that documents related to the pricing mechanism for China's life insurance product interest rates may be released soon.

The industry expected a reduction in predetermined interest rates for life insurance products next season.

The upper limit is expected to decrease from 2.5% to 2% for the predetermined interest rate of newly filed ordinary insurance products and from 2% to 1.5% for the predetermined interest rate of newly filed participating insurance products, while the minimum guaranteed interest rate upper limit for newly filed universal insurance products is expected to drop from 1.5% to 1%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

CHINA LIFE 2024 Premium Income Up 4.7% YoY

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) announced that the accumulated premium income of the Company for the period from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2024 was approximately RMB671.7 billion, an increase of 4.7% year on year.

Related News - JPM: Rising Flu Cases in CN May Pose Adverse Claim Loss Risks for PICC P&C/ PING AN/ AIA

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

China Life Insurance Group: 2024 Consolidated Operating Income RMB1.1T+; 3 New Growth Poles To Be Cultivated

In 2024, China Life Insurance Group's three major business segments, naming insurance, investment and banking, had made concerted efforts, with the total new insurance amount in the domestic market exceeding RMB700 trillion, and the scale of investment in the real economy directly served by insurance funds amounting to approx. RMB5 trillion, China Life Insurance Group held the Conference on Further Deepening Reform and Promoting High-Quality Development Comprehensively and 2025 Working Meeting in Beijing saying.

Business development logged new highs, with the Group's consolidated operating revenue/ consolidated premium income surpassing RMB1.1 trillion/ RMB820 billion and consolidated net profit surging YoY.

The meeting emphasized that the Company will actively cultivate 3 major new growth poles, and focus on 3 major areas, naming pension, health and wealth management, striving to build 3 new listing platforms, coordinating connotative development with extensional growth, so as to improve quality and enhance efficiency in accordance with listing standards, and actively boost annual operating results.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

China Life Insurance (2628 HK / 601628 CH) - Steady premium income growth but rising headwinds

We expect China Life to be a key beneficiary of the medium-term growth trend of increasing demand for protection and wealth management by China’s rising middle class, given that it is a leading domestic life insurer with ~15-20% estimated market share.

The regulatory shift towards more long-term and protection product mix is positive for future margins but near-term performance may be bumpy amid volatile equity market conditions and long-term Chinese government bond yields which have trended below historical average levels.

Looking ahead, we expect management to focus on continued improvements in the quality and productivity of its agent force to bolster its new business value (NBV) growth.

Given the divergence between reported net profits under the old and new accounting standards, there were uncertainties over China Life’s dividends leading up to its FY23 results announcement.

This eventually saw a dip of 12% when results were released. BUY (2628 HK) / SELL (601628 CH).

Source: OCBC