USD 07 (Apr 23 - Dec 27)

[winston]

The Dollar Decline Has Started

by Imre Gams

If the Fed overshoots raising rates, the economy will eventually start cooling down. At this point, the Fed will go back to its old playbook of cutting rates and printing money to help stimulate the economy.

At the beginning of October, DXY was up nearly 4% year-to-date. As of writing, DXY is now up just 0.37%.

Based on my analysis, I expect at least another 10% decline or so before the dollar stabilizes.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/12/17/ ... s-started/

[behappyalways]

Robert Shiller Warns Of 'Cataclysm' For US Dollar Reserve Status If Confiscated Russian Assets Given To Ukraine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ian-assets

[winston]

The Dollar is in Danger

by Imre Gams

Currency brokers offer up to 40x to 50x leverage. So even if you only use a fifth of what a broker is offering you, you can still use 10x leverage.

10x leverage on a 2% move now becomes a 20% move instead.

An overbought RSI and strong resistance at 104 is a dangerous combination for the dollar.

I’m betting the dollar will stall at this level once again… and then start falling.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/01/23/ ... in-danger/

[winston]

China looking to pare down its United States debt holdings

China, the second-biggest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, cut its holdings by US$18.6bil to US$797.7bil as of the end of January from December.

Since April 2022, China’s holdings of US Treasury bonds have always been below US$1 trillion.

China will likely increase holdings of gold and other assets to further diversify its foreign exchange reserves.

Source: China Daily

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... t-holdings

[behappyalways]

Dollar's golden cross and some more...
https://twitter.com/themarketear/status ... 0592993394

[behappyalways]

Should not be a surprise.

THE USD remains as the world's currency

https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/ ... 8992949277

[behappyalways]

The petrodollar agreement is history! Why is Saudi Arabia so brave?

'24.06.14【觀點│龍行天下】Pt.3 石油美元協議走入歷史！沙特為什麼這麼勇敢？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F0KEeqFaM8s&t=25s

[behappyalways]

The dollar is weak, the United States is strong?
What did Trump think?

24.07.23【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 美元弱，美國強？川普咋想的？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8DUXuPhNW_8

[winston]

Speculative traders turn short dollar as Fed rate cuts loom

SPECULATIVE traders turned bearish on the dollar for the first time since February as the Federal Reserve looks set to kick off its easing cycle in September.

Traders have wagered some US$9.8 billion tied to more losses for the dollar, the most since January.

At the same time, leveraged funds took a bullish stance on the euro and started betting against the Mexican peso.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... -cuts-loom

[winston]

USD rally continues as jobless claims fall to seven-month low (Reuters)

What’s our take?

Continued USD strength could mask the impact of tariffs.

The outlook for the USD, interest rates, inflation and trade is getting complicated.

Global investors believe Donald Trump’s election win will be good for the US economy and stock market. That’s one reason for money to flow into the USD.

The other reason is that Trump’s campaign promises are generally regarded as inflationary, which would result in higher interest rates and make the USD more attractive than other currencies.

If the USD continues to rise, it would make imports cheaper for US consumers — and that could offset the effect of a 10% tariff — though not a 60% tariff.

If the oil price remains under pressure, that could also offset the impact of tariffs.

Trump wants to ‘drill, baby, drill’, which would pressure the price - eventually. It’s not quite as simple as turning the tap on or off.

To complicate matters more, Trump actually wants a weaker dollar to make US exports more competitive. He might struggle to get everything he wants.

Source: Simply Wall Street