Wow. The breadth in commodity price spikes is the highest in two years, per Bloomberg. This is not disinflationary
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1795094937270116731
In the first two years of the pandemic, the US government debt surged by $7 trillion.
Over the same period, the Federal Reserve created $5 trillion in new money-- with most of that going to buy Treasury bonds.
In other words, the Fed ‘printed’ over 70% of the money that the US government borrowed in the first two years of the pandemic. And that $5 trillion of new money created 9% inflation.
So just imagine how much inflation the Fed will create if they print 70% of the $20 trillion that the US government will need over the next decade...
No one knows for sure. But it’s probably going to be a lot more than their magical 2% target.
Goods are now dropping in value
Rent inflation is finally improving
Cars are finally getting cheaper
Car insurance costs seem to have peaked
Consumers are less worried about inflation
1. Initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis.
2. Stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.
3. Odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated.
4. September's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.
5. Money supply growth is still accelerating.
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