Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

This is literally a sign of the times...
https://x.com/duediligenceguy/status/17 ... 2134864932

[winston]

by behappyalways:-

As Copper Soars, Telecoms Sitting On $7 Billion Mother Lode Of Old Cable

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -old-cable

[winston]

Trafigura says copper’s spike isn’t justified by fundamentals

By Jack Farchy

While investors have piled into copper futures, the market in leading consumer China has been flashing signs of weakness.

Disappointing mine supply “has led to a significant concentrates shortage, resulting in smelters having to cut production and pointing to tighter inventories of refined metal even if demand is lacklustre.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/714399

[behappyalways]

Why Copper Demand Is Skyrocketing
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g8Nar1s5UgM

[winston]

Copper's Correction: Time to Re-Evaluate Your Investments

Copper prices have risen by around 15% year-to-date, driven by speculative bets on impending shortages.

This speculation is fueled by copper’s critical role in electrification, particularly in grid-scale energy and data center infrastructure, and the challenges associated with launching new projects for fresh ore supply.

Higher global inventories and evidence of lower near-term demand, particularly highlighted by an unexpected contraction in China's manufacturing sector, led to a downturn in copper prices.

Source: INO.com

https://www.ino.com/blog/2024/06/copper ... =blogclick

[behappyalways]

China's Copper Exports Jump To Record On 'Export Arbitrage'
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/d ... nationally

[winston]

Hedge funds’ bullish copper bets run into China’s slowdown

China accounts for more than half of global demand.

Everything in China pointed to a market that should be slumping, and yet prices were soaring on a wave of speculative money.

On one side are bullish fund managers in London and New York, who have plowed 10s of billions of dollars into copper with an eye to future shortages.

On the other are Chinese purchasers, more focused on the here and now, who have rarely if ever been so gloomy.

Prices have dropped about 13% from the peak above US$11,100 a tonne, as speculators sharply reduced their bullish bets in the wake of the surge – with much of that reduction driven by trend-following funds.

Business is shrinking significantly. The physical sales business is very bleak.

Copper in Shanghai’s tax-free bonded zone has been selling at a highly-unusual discount to London Metal Exchange prices for more than a month.

That was painful for many Chinese merchants, who consider the second quarter the peak season for fabricators to purchase and prepare raw material stocks after the annual political meetings of the country.

Instead, copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen by 78% since the end of Chinese New Year to a record high for this time of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... s-slowdown

[winston]

Copper weighed down by rising inventories, China trade data in focus

By Siyi Liu & Colleen Howe

Copper inventories in LME warehouses climbed to 206,775 tonnes on Wednesday, having doubled since the middle of May to their highest since October 2021.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718726

[winston]

Few New Major Copper Discoveries As Focus Remains On Older Deposits (S&P Global)

What’s our take?

If this analysis is anything to go by, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on the price of copper.

Given how much copper would be needed for the electrification of the world, and the lack of new deposit discoveries, the copper market could see a large imbalance in demand outweighing supply from 2027 onwards according to this research.

Copper exploration budgets in 2023 were 34% lower than the peak in 2012, and even lower when adjusted for inflation.

Also, the average lead time for creating new mines has jumped to 17.9 years from 12.7 years.

This has been fueled by longer times for exploration, permitting, feasibility studies, construction, and financing.

All in all, given most of the newly discovered sites are years away from being finished, production from these mines may not come to market soon enough to alleviate projected supply deficits. This, of course, would be very bullish for the price of copper.

Source: Simply Wall Street

[winston]

<Research>HSBC Global Research Expects Copper Prices to Stay High, Prefers CMOC & ZIJIN MINING w/ TP Raise

HSBC Global Research noted its optimism in a report that copper prices will remain elevated due to recovering demand from the energy transition and tight copper concentrate supply.

According to the broker, copper demand will continue to be supported by strong demand for energy transformation, such as grid investment, renewable energy installations and electric vehicle production.

Demand for real estate completions also has the potential to improve in 2H24 as the Chinese government rolls out more stimulus packages for the real estate sector.

Related News: M Stanley: Recent Copper Prices Backed on Still Tight Supply; ZIJIN, CMOC Expected to React Positively

On the supply side, the broker believed copper concentrate supply may be vulnerable to disruptions in mine production.

Stocks of copper concentrate at mainland ports have rebounded since April, partly due to increased use of copper scrap, but stocks are still below historical figures.

HSBC is bullish on CMOC (03993.HK) as its copper output growth from production expansion is faster than its peers. The broker maintained a Buy rating on the stock, with the target price on its H-shares raised from $9.4 to $9.5.

HSBC also preferred ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) for its diversified portfolio of mines, which has brought steady growth and favourable exposure to gold production. The broker kept its Buy rating and elevated its H-share target price from $20.9 to $21.3.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN