by winston » Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:10 pm
not vested
Hume Cement Industries (HUME) – BUY
Strong earnings and margins ahead. We expect Hume to record stronger earnings in
2024, supported by stronger demand and more construction activities on the back of
improved foreign labour intake.
We expect prices to remain elevated at >RM350/mt in FY24. With coal prices having retreated recently and ASPs remaining elevated, cement players should see better margins ahead.
Better utilisation rate with uptick in construction activities. The industry is expected
to grow this year with utilisation rates normalising as construction activities rebound with
the acceleration of infrastructure projects and some affordable housing projects. This will
lead to stronger demand and stable prices, which act as the primary drivers of improvements in the earnings outlook. Long-term prospects still rest on key projects including MRT3, Pan Borneo Highway, ECRL, RTS and PSR.
Maintain BUY with a target price of RM2.54 based on 15x FY24F PE, lower than the
industry’s 2011-13 average 19x PE, prior to earnings disappointment in 2017 to reflect the
positive outlook for the industry on the back of economic recovery.
SHARE PRICE CATALYST
Rising cement but falling coal prices. Hume is poised to benefit from rising cement
prices and falling coal costs (accounting for 52% of its COGS at floating basis).
We favour Hume for its strong clinker capacity, and it is operating at a robust 75% utilisation rate compared with the industry average of 60%.
In FY24, we anticipate improved results driven by:
a) increased construction activity,
b) higher cement prices,
c) lower coal prices due to global decarbonisation, and
d) effective cost-cutting measures.
Source: UOBKH
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