Bonds 06 (Oct 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

US bonds on best run since March

Treasuries booked a fourth-straight week of gains – the best winning streak since March – on building investor confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates next quarter.

That zeitgeist has prompted money managers to pile into Treasuries in recent weeks, with Citigroup Inc describing positioning as now “at extremes.”

Swaps contracts tied to Fed meetings imply an over 90% probability the US central bank brings down its current 5.25% to 5.5% target rate range down in March.

A US$155bil round of fresh fixed-rate note and bond sales next week may temper the extent of any further decline in yields before year-end.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ince-march

[behappyalways]

China's 10-year government bond yield drops to the lowest since 2022. #China
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/ ... 5721081955

[behappyalways]

Foreign ownership of US government bonds has been on the decline since 2015
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 1928713502

[winston]

Bonds Are the Place to Be Right Now (Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Are Yielding 6%)

by Marc Lichtenfeld

There were 9 million job openings in December, up from 8.9 million in November. Prior to the pandemic, there had never been 8 million jobs available in a month.

In January, employers added 353,000 jobs. That’s a big number, and it’s an increase from December’s 333,000. Wages are also up 4.5% over last year.

And corporate earnings are expected to have grown 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, while fourth quarter GDP was a robust 3.3%.

Should China’s woes make their way over to the U.S., the economy could hit the brakes and rates could in fact be lowered.

Investment-grade corporate bonds are yielding 6%. Non-investment-grade bonds rated BB or better are yielding more than 7%.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/02/08/ ... ielding-6/

[behappyalways]

2/2 US #bonds are heading thru 5% at 10y tenor (Orange). See how #termpremia (black) are rising too
https://twitter.com/crossbordercap/stat ... 7404642339

[behappyalways]

Bonds are not in a great place. We project 5 1/4% for US 10yr. Fall in rate expectations has stalled and now term premia (black line) are also rising
https://twitter.com/crossbordercap/stat ... 0293616046

[behappyalways]

I'm as guilty as anyone in putting together complex theories about what drives the 10-year yield.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 4790547748

[winston]

TLT: Why Hold Long Bond ETFs in 2024?

by Kent Thune

TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds, and these bonds are particularly sensitive to interest rates. When interest rates fall, the price of long-term bonds tends to rise more than bonds with shorter maturities.

Risks of Holding TLT in 2024:-
1. Interest rate risk
2. Lower current yields

Source: Etf

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tlt-why- ... 00126.html

[behappyalways]

We believe #bonds are in a structural bear market that, absent intervention, will see yields rise for the next +20yrs and you need a new hedge. Note that on a total return basis ie plus interest, Treasuries have broken 35yr support vs #gold, and the next target is 20% lower!
https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1791460420374462486

[behappyalways]

Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japan ... -time-2013


Starting today, Janet is back to selling notes and bonds again and damn does she have a lot to sell.
https://x.com/ces921/status/1793260479910932619


Global Bond Market On Verge Of Selloff As Commodities Reawaken
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1793292012541657137