USD 07 (Apr 23 - Dec 27)

[winston]

The U.S. Dollar’s Last Stand

by Imre Gams

The key feature of this chart is the large head and shoulders pattern that’s been taking shape since July 2022.

There’s only one issue with this particular head and shoulders setup… it’s too obvious!

I scanned my Twitter feed to see if any other traders have spotted the same pattern, and indeed they have. This pattern has garnered thousands of views on Twitter alone.

As Jeff Clark likes to say, the market rarely rewards the popular trade.
the dollar seems poised for a big move. Until the direction of that move becomes clearer, it’s advisable for currency traders to stay on the sidelines.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/03/ ... ast-stand/

[winston]

The U.S. Dollar Will Likely Keep Falling From Here

by Brett Eversole

The dollar hit a 20-year high last year. But it has since been on a steady decline. And that’s the key reason stocks and commodities have been rallying.

When the dollar is rising, stocks and commodities tend to fall. And when the currency is falling in value – like it has been lately – these assets tend to rise.

The currency recently declined in seven out of eight weeks. That’s a consistent downtrend. And similar moves have happened just 1% of the time over the past 50 years.

The rapidly rising dollar was a headwind for stocks, commodities, and just about every U.S. asset last year. That’s over now. The dollar should keep falling… which is a good reason to stay bullish right now.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/19/ ... from-here/

[winston]

The dollar is weakening — here's what it means for investors

by Ines Ferré

In September 2022, the Dollar Index (DX-Y), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, reached a 20-year high of 114. Today, it's sitting just south of 100.

The majority of the data continues to point towards a lower US dollar. I think this could be the catalyst to keep driving stock prices higher. Bitcoin too."

Another likely winner is commodities, which are denominated in dollars.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-doll ... 22414.html

[winston]

Dollar’s Busted Bull Run Has Bears Calling End of an Era

by Alice Atkins and Carter Johnson

The US currency is teetering at the lowest level in more than a year after signs of cooling inflation bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will soon stop hiking interest rates.

Dollar bears are looking even further ahead, to what they say are inevitable rate cuts, something the market consensus sees happening at some point in 2024.

It would reduce import prices for developing nations, helping ease their inflation pressures. A greenback reversal also stands to bolster currencies like the yen. More broadly, a softer US currency would tend to boost American firms’ exports at the expense of their counterparts in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-b ... 00966.html

[winston]

Greenback's threat 'comes from within'

He warned that political deadlocks and the "growing weaponization" of currencies, will help to fuel de-dollarization, which refers to a coordinated effort by other countries to chip away at the greenback's dominance.

Over the last 23 years, data from the International Monetary Fund reveals a decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves, dropping from 72 percent to 59 percent.

However, Steil says neither the euro, which is grappling with the aftermath of the UK's exit from the European Union, nor the Chinese yuan, with a mere 3 percent share of global reserves, are probable contenders to challenge the US dollar's dominance.

Cutting Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication and freezing Moscow's dollar reserves after Putin's 2022 invasion, criticized by Steil and Elon Musk, is a "weaponization" analogous to antibiotics overuse, causing reduced engagement with the US financial system.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... om-within'

[behappyalways]

Imagine that. Futures traders are still net short the dollar according to Goldman.
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 9378038937

[behappyalways]

Perhaps the greenback has some catching up to do?
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 1303262593


Oh look, hedgies have seen the light and are going net long the dollar (as other specs remain quite short)
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 5726577041

[behappyalways]

The Dollar Index (DXY) is in the middle of a massive rally.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 0653863187

[behappyalways]

Dollar longs build as market participants realize that the greenback isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 4729008284

[winston]

The US dollar super bubble may finally be popped – by the Israel-Gaza war

The effects of war and inflation could send US financial markets into a tailspin, forcing China to completely ‘unpeg’ from the dollar – which could then collapse

by Andy Xie

The escalating war in the Middle East could be the straw that breaks the back of the US dollar super bubble.

As oil prices rise and the US budget deficit widens, bond yields will surge.

This is likely to pop the stock and property bubbles in the US, then everywhere else.

China’s surging trade surplus and wage inflation will only add pressure to its unofficial dollar peg. Once that “peg” breaks, the dollar will collapse.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... 053dbbd98a