not vested
Alphabet Inc. – Focused on reducing expense base
PSR Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: 131
4Q22 results was within expectations on both revenue and earnings.
FY22 revenue/PATMI is at 99%/95% of our FY22e forecasts.
Adj. PATMI (excl. unrealised losses) is at 100% of our forecasts.
Revenue was dragged by 2% YoY decline in ad revenue, and 6% FX headwinds.
Cloud momentum is still strong with 32% YoY growth for 4Q22. But there was a -US$480mn operating loss.
Cloud accounts for only 10% of total revenue.
Slowing FY23e expenses growth with 12,000 job cuts in 1Q23e, reducing office facilities, and more prudent investments.
Guidance for FY23e CAPEX is roughly in line with FY22 We cut our FY23e revenue forecast by 9% to account for continued weakness in digital advertising demand, while reducing CAPEX spend by 20% to reflect a general slowdown in expenses.
Our FY23e EBITDA forecasts are also cut by 17% to reflect slower-than- anticipated margin expansion due to expected US$2.3bn severance-related charges.
We maintain BUY with a raised DCF target price of US$131.00 (prev. US$124.00) due to potential upside from increasing YouTube Shorts monetisation, continued strength in Cloud, and margin expansion in FY24e from the slowing pace of expense growth as a % of revenue, with a WACC of 7.3% and terminal growth of 3.5%.
Source: Phillips
https://www.stocksbnb.com/reports/alpab ... ense-base/