USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Fears that the US dollar will collapse are nonsense, and doomsayers are often hawking gold, investment chief says

by Filip De Mott

Dollar collapse fears are bogus as the greenback can't be replaced anytime soon.

A lot of the talk is often from doomsayers trying to push gold

The dollar "is not only the established choice and, in most cases, the smart choice, but it is the only choice."

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fears-us ... 00377.html

[winston]

De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace, Jen Says

by Matthew Burgess

Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008.

Smaller nations are experimenting with de-dollarization while China and India are pushing to internationalize their currencies for trade settlement after the US and Europe cut Russian banks from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT.

The US currency now represents about 58% of total global official reserves, down from 73% in 2001.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollariz ... 44378.html

[behappyalways]

The divergence between the 10-year note yield and the US dollar suggests that the greenback may have room to run higher.

Adding to that is the concentrated long positioning in EURUSD, the largest component of the US dollar index (a whopping 57% weighting).

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 5605149707

[winston]

4 reasons investors expect US dollar to keep sliding

Some 87 per cent of 331 respondents in a Bloomberg survey expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 3 per cent or below later this year

A large group of investors believe the yen or yuan appreciation will be the primary cause of dollar decline

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... ep-sliding

[behappyalways]

白宮武器化美元 被制裁國家反彈棄美元 TVBS文茜的世界周報 20230422
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-wJOr6Vtw9U&t=5s

[winston]

The U.S. Dollar’s Last Stand

by Imre Gams

The key feature of this chart is the large head and shoulders pattern that’s been taking shape since July 2022.

There’s only one issue with this particular head and shoulders setup… it’s too obvious!

I scanned my Twitter feed to see if any other traders have spotted the same pattern, and indeed they have. This pattern has garnered thousands of views on Twitter alone.

As Jeff Clark likes to say, the market rarely rewards the popular trade.
the dollar seems poised for a big move. Until the direction of that move becomes clearer, it’s advisable for currency traders to stay on the sidelines.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/03/ ... ast-stand/

[winston]

The U.S. Dollar Will Likely Keep Falling From Here

by Brett Eversole

The dollar hit a 20-year high last year. But it has since been on a steady decline. And that’s the key reason stocks and commodities have been rallying.

When the dollar is rising, stocks and commodities tend to fall. And when the currency is falling in value – like it has been lately – these assets tend to rise.

The currency recently declined in seven out of eight weeks. That’s a consistent downtrend. And similar moves have happened just 1% of the time over the past 50 years.

The rapidly rising dollar was a headwind for stocks, commodities, and just about every U.S. asset last year. That’s over now. The dollar should keep falling… which is a good reason to stay bullish right now.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/05/19/ ... from-here/

[winston]

The dollar is weakening — here's what it means for investors

by Ines Ferré

In September 2022, the Dollar Index (DX-Y), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, reached a 20-year high of 114. Today, it's sitting just south of 100.

The majority of the data continues to point towards a lower US dollar. I think this could be the catalyst to keep driving stock prices higher. Bitcoin too."

Another likely winner is commodities, which are denominated in dollars.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-doll ... 22414.html

[winston]

Dollar’s Busted Bull Run Has Bears Calling End of an Era

by Alice Atkins and Carter Johnson

The US currency is teetering at the lowest level in more than a year after signs of cooling inflation bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will soon stop hiking interest rates.

Dollar bears are looking even further ahead, to what they say are inevitable rate cuts, something the market consensus sees happening at some point in 2024.

It would reduce import prices for developing nations, helping ease their inflation pressures. A greenback reversal also stands to bolster currencies like the yen. More broadly, a softer US currency would tend to boost American firms’ exports at the expense of their counterparts in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-b ... 00966.html

[winston]

Greenback's threat 'comes from within'

He warned that political deadlocks and the "growing weaponization" of currencies, will help to fuel de-dollarization, which refers to a coordinated effort by other countries to chip away at the greenback's dominance.

Over the last 23 years, data from the International Monetary Fund reveals a decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves, dropping from 72 percent to 59 percent.

However, Steil says neither the euro, which is grappling with the aftermath of the UK's exit from the European Union, nor the Chinese yuan, with a mere 3 percent share of global reserves, are probable contenders to challenge the US dollar's dominance.

Cutting Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication and freezing Moscow's dollar reserves after Putin's 2022 invasion, criticized by Steil and Elon Musk, is a "weaponization" analogous to antibiotics overuse, causing reduced engagement with the US financial system.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... om-within'