by winston » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:14 am
vested
Baidu Inc (BIDU US / 9888 HK) - Major beneficiary of economic recovery and advertising spend growth
Being the first to report this earnings season, Baidu’s 4Q22 results beat mainly due to
(1) low expectations
(2) less-than-expected revenue decline, and
(3) tight cost control by the company.
While core advertising revenue was weak in 4Q22, management highlighted that recovery for search advertising spend has been positive in Jan 2023 and the post-Chinese New Year period.
Operating margin, while down quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), improved year-on-year (YoY) by 660 basis points (bps).
Recovery in advertising verticals such as travel and lifestyle categories, and a focus by advertisers on performance-based advertisements are likely to benefit Baidu.
While near term financial impact of AI chatbot technology is likely to be negligible, we believe a successful initial launch of Baidu’s ERNIE chatbot could catalyse a more positive investor view towards Baidu’s longer term business potential.
We gain more confidence and turn more positive on Baidu’s outlook, seeing several tailwinds for the company in FY23:
(1) post-Covid economic recovery benefiting Baidu’s ad verticals,
(2) relatively low revenue base in FY22 and expectations for FY23 revenue growth,
(3) upcoming positive catalysts on the launches of the ERNIE chatbot in the next few months, and autonomous driving solutions in 2H23, and
(4) relatively more attractive (lower) valuations compared to peers.
We tweak our estimates for FY23 and FY24 slightly and maintain our FV at USD190 (BIDU US) / HKD184 (9888 HK). BUY.
Source: OCBC
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