A global stock trader’s guide to navigating food protectionism
Source: Bloomberg
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... tectionism
Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze trading for four years.
The magnitude of the accelerating selloff in copper and other industrial metals suggests that investors are betting on much steeper declines in demand in the coming weeks.
Metals have been harder hit than other commodities like crops and energy.
Chinese demand remains a key uncertainty for everything from oil to copper and food. extreme weather risks and deep policy uncertainty in China.
Oil: Standard Chartered plc points to a "large surplus" of oil looming and top trader Trafigura Group sees near-term weakness persisting, Goldman Sachs Group Inc expects a tighter market as users switch from super-expensive gas to oil.
Natural Gas: Europe's gas stockpiles are higher than normal for this time of year, at about 88% of capacity. But much depends on the severity of the winter: a deep freeze will quickly erode inventories, while piling pressure on governments for tougher controls on demand and prices.
China: Clear shifts are unlikely to emerge before next year.
Grain supply may drop "over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down".
Aluminium's biggest-ever price spike last week was an interesting twist at the end of a bleak quarter for metals.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) will start consultations over a potential ban on Russian metal. The LME move casts new uncertainty over supply — especially for aluminium, but also for nickel and copper.
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