Samudera

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"Although it may sound strange, my prediction for Omicron's impact on SMDR performance is positive," said PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk President Director Bani Maulana Mulia to Kontan.co.id, Monday (6/12).


He mentioned that Omicron might hinder the normalization of other circumstances. However, on the other hand, it will keep the freight rate high.

Unfortunately, he has not disclosed his freight rate . "The freight rate varies, of course, depending on the route and destination, but currently all shipping companies are enjoying high freight rates," he said.

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/sam ... an-omicron

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https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/seafinew2.jsp

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Most probably the company earns about above 25 cents for the year (FY2021) with 4th quarter contributing the highest quarter since freight rates in 4th quarter are much higher than 3rd

That's about a PE of more than 2 at present price. Maybe less than 2 depending on 4th quarter contribution.

There's a worry if FY2022 will see a collapse in earnings. But with increasing clarify, I think we might even see an increased in earnings. Firstly if 4th quarter FY2021 freight rates is carried into 1Q FY2022, we might see 10-12 cents earnings for 1Q. That is about 40% of FY2021 estimate earnings of 25 cents. To make the rest of 60% in the next 3 quarters is highly probable if rates do not fall too significantly.


But the main reason I think FY2022 we will see a huge increase in annual rates. I have been pondering why Samudera's earnings did not rise as significantly compared to its competitor RCL. My guess now is that the company is locked into low rates which are due for revision. With freight rates much higher now than the start of the year, the company will most probably see a much higher revised rates.

The main shippers all have annual rates agreement with their main customers so my guess is that Samudera does so especially with the main line operators it is dealing with. I could not find any newer information on the annual rates agreement and this is what I can find. Maybe someone can ask for an update on this during their next AGM.

As a feeder operator, our CCAs (connecting carrier agreements) with main line operators are applied on annual basis, therefore they can help to avoid rate cutting. Internally we have intensified cost efficiency programs

https://samudera.listedcompany.com/qa_20010628.html

(Significant portion of revenue of which rates to be revised)
Samudera has 2 customers contributing 36% of FY20 revenue

https://research.sginvestors.io/2021/07/...0.html?m=1


If investment is buying a portion of a business. At present price of 54 cents, the company has already earned the FY2021 25 cents and for FY2022, probably it will be able to matched FY2021 earnings

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長榮年終40個月超霸氣! 員工嗨:買房頭期款到手 陽明紅利獎金上看7個月 萬海年終傳最高11個月｜非凡財經新聞｜20211230
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NyMHdL80jwQ

Will the huge bonus affects earnings estimate?

Last year Samudera's total employee salary is about $11m (inc CPF, bonus and salary). It is about 2 cents per share. If bonus is 12 months, that will be around 2 cents per share and my estimate for 4th quarter is still valid.

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According to Bani, this year's revenue from container shipping has the opportunity to make a better contribution than bulk shipping. This strategy is expected to increase revenues by around 30% above 2021 revenues. “In 2021 our revenues will pass US$ 600 million, thus it is hoped that in 2022 the revenue target can be above US$ 700 million. We continue to expand our services and it is hoped that it will increase revenue significantly," he said.

Targeting 30% Revenue Growth, This is Samudera Indonesia's Strategy
https://www.beritasatu.com/ekonomi/8766 ... -indonesia

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Might result in lots of logistics business...

Indonesia passes law to relocate capital from Jakarta to Borneo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g3SSXBOlDgY

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Although there are operational disruptions due to Covid-19, including Omicron, shipping performance remains good because fares remain high, demand also remains high," he said.


In addition, SMDR also strives to continue to add new services. For example, for activities in Jakarta, SMDR adds additional services in Tanjung Priok for export-import activities. " This new additional service immediately fully absorbs the current high market demand," said Bani.


Samudera Indonesia (SMDR) Says Until Early 2022, Container Tariffs Remain High
https://newssetup.kontan.co.id/news/sam ... tap-tinggi

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PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk ( SMDR ) projects this year's revenue to exceed US$ 700 million.

President Director of PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk Bani Maulana Mulia said that this optimism departed from the achievement of revenue in 2021 exceeding the previous target and the current trend is still increasing.

Samudera Indonesia (SMDR) Targets Revenue Above US$ 700 Million This Year
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/sam ... -tahun-ini

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There is a big player selling Samudera. Everytime it hits around 56, the player will come in to block and try to push the share price down. He seems kinda convinced that Samudera is overvalued. He has been doing this a few times and for a few months already.

Looking at the shareholdings, I really doubt he has so many shares to sell for personally I have around 70 lots being borrowed.

My guess for samudera is that its PE is around 2, nta as for 2021 should be above 75 cents and dividend for 2021 should be around 5 to 8 cents...so I don't see any overvaluation. Some container shippers are reporting very good January 2022 revenue with Evergreen's Jan 2022 EPS of NT$6 compared to 1st Quarter EPS of NT$7.

As for its parent company Samudera Indonesia, its share price was up by more than 20% in the past month. Bulk of its profit will come from Samudera Shipping.

I keep an open mind that I might be wrong and the seller is right. In investing, sometimes you need conviction in what you are doing.

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https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c ... ing-prices


SINGAPORE - The first time the world took serious note of the importance and impact of container shipping on the global supply chain was in March 2021, when the giant container ship Ever Given got stuck and blocked the Suez Canal.


The incident saw worldwide container shipping rates skyrocketing. According to Clarkson Research, boxship charter rates quadrupled in 2021.

Come the new year, the surge in container rates has not subsided. In fact, never has container shipping begun a new year on such a high.



Two factors which could supercharge demand this year are the impending reopening in China, and US importers rushing to restock depleted inventories.

Seasoned analysts like Mr Judah Levine of Freightos see no chance of falling rates until underlying demand wanes. And that does not look likely any time soon.

Industry literature cites how the surge in rates has led to postponements in retirements of older container ships and spike in prices of second-hand vessels.

Clarkson' s second-hand container ship price index rose 33 per cent last year to a seven-year high, with the value of the global merchant fleet at US$1.042 trillion.



Some actual transacted prices have been even higher, according to trade publications.

The price of a 10-year old 4,500 TEU vessel is up some 270 per cent since June last year, while that for a 6,600 TEU second-hand vessel has shot up by over 140 per cent.

Meanwhile, the surge in rates is forcing shippers to abandon spot rates based on historical prices. Extensions and new rate fixtures are now being done on an average of 300 days ahead of the charter.




All this has translated into phenomenal profit for owners and operators of container vessels over the past year.

One company worth watching closely is mainboard-listed Samudera Shipping Line, which is expected to report its full-year results this month.

Samudera runs a thriving regional container shipping business which provides feeder services between Singapore and other regional ports in Asia. It also operates a bulk and tanker business which transports dry bulk, liquid and gas cargo, while its logistics arm does freight forwarding, warehousing and agency services.

But container shipping accounts for 95 per cent of its business.

Samudera' s half-year results to end-June 2021 surged 5.1 times to US$37.9 million, on the back of a 20 per cent rise in revenue to US$209.1 million. The half-year profit works out to 6.8 US cents or 9.2 Singapore cents per share (Samudera' s shares are quoted in Singapore currency, while financials are stated in US dollar).

Gross margin tripled from 7.4 per cent in 2020 to 21.4 per cent during the first half of the last financial year, thanks to surging shipping rates. Net cash from operating activities jumped to US$39 million, from US$13 million a year earlier.

As a result, Samudera came into the second half of 2021 with a cash position of US$108.6 million (or S$146 million), translating into 28 Singapore cents per share based on 529 million shares.

This is half its current market cap.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
Samudera riding wave of soaring container shipping rates
Record number of containers handled by Singapore ports last year figure set to increase


Given that the second half includes the traditional year-end high-season scramble for shipping space, the performance numbers to end-December 2021 could be significantly higher.

Even if its July-December 2021 numbers are only as good as the January-June figures, Samudera' s earnings per share will be over Singapore 18 cents, lowering its price-earnings multiple to three times (based on current stock price).

As at end-June last year, its net assets per share stood at 42.71 US cents, translating to 57 Singapore cents. Given container ship values have doubled since 2020, its real net asset value is likely to be much higher.

There is nothing listed on the Singapore Exchange at the moment with these kinds of ratios.

Charter rates are now being negotiated one to three years ahead at historically high rates. And should war break out in Eastern Europe, further tightening of the global supply chain crunch could further ratchet up rates.

Not surprisingly, the overwhelming consensus among industry insiders, including Mr Soren Skou, chief executive of shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk, is that while 2021 was a record year for container shipping worldwide, demand and pricing capacity in 2022 will remain extremely strong for container ship operators and possibly beat all previous records.

The good times look set to continue rolling for Samudera and its industry cohorts.

The Singapore-listed entity is 65 per cent controlled by Indonesia' s Samudera Shipping.

It would be interesting to see what the parent does after its Singapore unit reports results.