Ping An 2318

[winston]

Game theory

We expect 3Q21F NBV to fall 33% yoy, given Jul/Aug’s estimated first year premium trends, coupled with notably lower margins from product mix shifts.

Given weak sales over 2Q-3Q, we think both agents and Ping An may have incentives to delay ‘jumpstart’; we thus see only 5% NBV growth for 4Q21F.

We view its recent share price decline driven by China property developer concerns as overdone, given its limited exposure to property developers.

Reiterate Add, but cut TP to HK$81. Our base case assumes a return to
double-digit NBV growth only in 2Q22F.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 41958286E1

[winston]

vested

Ping An weighs sale of US$1b Founder insurance business

Ping An Insurance (2318) is considering a sale of Founder Group's life insurance business, valuing the unit at US$1 billion (HK$7.8 billion), people familiar with the matter said

It would be the first disposal after the Founder Group's court-led restructuring.

The new company was created following the restructuring of Peking University Founder Group, the troubled business arm of the top Chinese university. Its assets include Founder Securities, Founder Technology Group, China Hi-Tech Group and Hong Kong-listed Founder Holdings (0418) and Peking University Resources (0618).

In July, a Chinese court approved a restructuring plan in which a consortium including Ping An and real estate developer Zhuhai Huafa Group agreed to invest 53.7 billion yuan (HK$64.9 billion) to 73.3 billion yuan in the company.

Earlier this year, Ping An said it would buy a 51.1 percent to 70 percent stake in Founder Group for as much as 50.75 billion yuan.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... e-business

[winston]

vested

Brokers See PING AN 3Q NBV to Drop Almost 30%, Eye on Life Reform Progress

PING AN (02318.HK) will announce the third quarter results next Wednesday (27th).

According to the forecast of four brokers as compiled by our reporters, the insurer's 3Q life and healthcare insurances may have their NBV ranged between RMB29.15-30.85 billion, down 28%-32% from RMB42.844 billion over a year ago.

The market will pay heed to the reform progress of life unit of PING AN, and the investment risk on Chinese properties (whether there will be need to have impairment provision), in addition to the adjustment on guidance for 2021 NBV positive growth.

Related News: Nomura Cuts PING AN (02318.HK) TP to $95.18; Rated Buy

Brokers│3Q21E life & healthcare NBV (RMB)│YoY change
Credit Suisse|29.15 billion|-32%
Nomura|30 billion|-30%
CCBI|30.85 billion|-28%
Calculated based on PING AN's 3Q20E life & healthcare NBV of RMB42.844 billion

Source: AAstocknews

[winston]

not vested

Signs of passing the darkest hour

Uncertainty about key issues concerning Ping An’s investors is reducing, in
our view. We see scope for further easing of concerns at the 3Q21 results.

We also expect the 3Q21 results to show better operating trends vs. 2Q21,
thus giving investors the confidence that the darkest hour has passed.

Ping An Bank’s results (reported earlier) were very positive, with 3Q21 net
profit up 33% yoy, which follows on from a strong 1H21.

Reiterate Add rating, TP raised slightly to HK$82 due to mark-to-market of
listed tech units within our SOP valuation.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 9202D39B5D

[winston]

vested

Ping An net slides 21pc as new business slumps

Ping An Insurance (2318) saw its net profit fall 21 percent in the first nine months, with the insurer's new business value of its life and health segments down by 18 percent.

Net profit dropped to 81.64 billion yuan (HK$99.36 billion) as the company made impairment provisions to its investments in China Fortune Land Development, it said in a filing.

Its operating earnings grew 9.2 percent to 118.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters while the revenue for the period amounted to 984.39 billion yuan, down 1.08 percent year on year

The new business value of its life and health business lost 17.8 percent to 35.24 billion yuan during the period as it optimized the team structure under a high-quality talent strategy and the decline in the number of agents led to the drop, it said.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ess-slumps

[winston]

vested

Brokers' Post-result Ratings, TPs, Views on PING AN (02318.HK) (Table)

Brokers|Ratings|TPs (HKD)
JPMorgan|Overweight|100
HSBC Global Research|Buy|94
Goldman Sachs|Buy|94
Nomura|Buy|95.18->93.28
Citigroup|Buy|93
UBS|Buy|90->88
CLSA |Buy|83
Credit Suisse |Outperform |85->80
Morgan Stanley|Overweight|82
Daiwa|Hold|58

Brokers|Views
JPMorgan| Agent number continued to drop in 3Q; no additional provisions to demonstrate adequate repayment capability
HSBC Global Research| 2021 NBV to post at least "double-digit decline"; unable to set out guidance for next year's business growth
Goldman Sachs| 3Q earnings growth beats; lowered guidance on 2021 agent number and NBV
Nomura| 3Q earnings growth slightly beats; NBV and revenue falling short of estimates
Citigroup| 3Q result mixed; NBV growth weakened
UBS| NBV in line; saw property risks as controllable
CLSA| 3Q NBV growth slightly misses; lowered NBV forecasts for 2021-23 by 5-9%
Credit Suisse| NBV growth misses; 3Q earnings growth basically stable
Morgan Stanley| Life and healthcare insurance NBV weakened
Daiwa| Insurance agency reform continued to disappoint

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

vested

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK/601318 CH) - Respectable OPAT growth

Ping An is China’s second largest life and property & casualty (p&c) insurer, with an integrated financials services platform.

Life insurance, p&c insurance and banking segments contributed 55%, 20% and 18% respectively to 2020 operating profits.

Driven by its strong agency focus, diversified business model and proprietary technology to improve the customer experience and facilitate cross-sales efforts, Ping An continues to deliver organic growth in life/health insurance and internet finance, benefiting from the rising protection and wealth management needs of China’s rising middle class.

Following a transition period for the company, we expect continued distribution cost discipline and life product mix improvements ahead.

To improve retention rates, the company has moved its recruitment model from mass hiring to an artificial intelligence (AI) based electronic process.

Potential further value at a later stage may be unlocked by separate listing of its Fintech and Securities businesses . BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

vested

Saving ammunition for the next quarter?

We think 4Q21’s weak individual FYP supports the thesis that ammunition
may have been saved for 1Q22F, at the expense of 4Q21.

Analysis of 2- and 3-year CAGR suggest 23-38% of 4Q21 individual FYP (Fig
2) may have been impacted, with this largely concentrated in Dec 2021.

With this equating to 8-14% of 1Q21 FYP, it should help reduce the pressure
for growth in 1Q22F, which is particularly acute given 1Q21’s high base.

Reiterate Add, with a slightly higher TP of HK$83, driven primarily to a rollforward of valuations.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 9B1172E3F5

[winston]

vested

PING AN 2021 Life Premium Dips 4% YoY, P&C's Sinks 5.5%

2022/01/14

PING AN (02318.HK) announced that the accumulated gross premium incomes of Ping An Life Insurance Company of China for the period from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 dipped 4% YoY to RMB457.03 billion; those of Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Company of China fell 5.5% YoY to RMB270.04 billion.

Related News: PING AN's Subsidiary PAB NP Grows 25.6% to RMB36.336B Last Yr

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Expect messy FY21F results

We expect FY21F NBV to again be adversely impacted by negative actuarial assumption changes, which would lead to a worse yoy decline in 4Q21F.

We also see FY21F net profit adversely impacted by further revaluation losses on its Lufax convertible bonds.

We expect Ping An Bank to report the best performance of the group, with the worst performer being the life insurance division.

Reiterate Add rating. Slight cut in our TP to HK$81 on marginally lower FY21F-23F EPS and NBV estimates.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 00D3EC1EAC