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by winston » Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:57 am
Warning Sign No. 1: Staggering Inflows to Equity Funds
Equity funds have attracted more money in the past five months than they have over the past 12 years.
Warning Sign No. 2: The Market Looks Expensive by Virtually Any Measure
Warning Sign No. 3: An ETF Literally Named "Fear of Missing Out"
by behappyalways » Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:38 pm
by behappyalways » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:44 am
behappyalways wrote:From David Einhorn....
The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks.
The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud.
The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.
The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:
Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.
Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September.
HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli.
The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.
by winston » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:53 pm
First, mentions of inflation on corporate earnings calls has continued to accelerate.
Red flag number two: weakening profit margin outlooks.
Corporate sentiment appears to be peaking — our red flag number three here.
by winston » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:44 am
The equity's market cap has grown to be more than two times GDP, and how that is uncharted territory”.
Rising property valuations of homes and the interest in NFTs are also signs of a bubble.
by winston » Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:57 am
Utilities are the S&P 500's best-performing sector so far this quarter with a 10.2 percent gain.
They have been followed by other popular destinations for nervous investors, including real estate and healthcare.
In derivatives markets, the gap in price between the front month Cboe Volatility Index futures contract and the VIX index itself is higher than it has been about 85 percent of the time over the last five years.
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc - viewed as havens during uncertain times - have outperformed most G10 currencies this quarter.
The market that has gone 292 calendar days without a decline of 5 percent or more, nearly three times the average since World War II.
The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio on a forward 12-month basis stands at 21.3, a 35 percent premium to its 20-year average.
by behappyalways » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:33 pm
How many time to they say Winter is coming in the first three seasons of Game of Thrones?
by behappyalways » Sun Oct 03, 2021 2:23 pm
by winston » Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:42 pm
The sword of Damocles hanging over the market includes rising interest rates, Federal Reserve tapering due to begin soon, big increases in energy costs, ongoing supply chain issues, stagflation worries and Wall Street analysts that are not nearly as positive on the upcoming earnings seasons as they were for the second quarter. Add the debt ceiling and China worries, and the cauldron continues to simmer.
Bannister of Stifel has cited slowing liquidity, the potential for a continued drag on the economy from the COVID-19 variants and a host of additional negatives, like the ones we mentioned above.
Take some precautions right now:-
1. Take Profits
2. Stick With Safety
3. Sell the Meme Stocks
4. Add a Hedge
5. Go to Cash
by behappyalways » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:54 pm
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