TOL @ May 30, 2021
New Money From The New Month
It would be a new month soon and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets sometime next week.
Thereafter, I think that it would be back to a sideways market, for a little while more.
The US market has been consolidating for about 40 days now. The last consolidation was for about 80 days.
Some "experts" including Cramer, are now expecting the markets to rise after the consolidation.
The following is a list of factors by Cramer, on what could drive the markets higher:-
1. Absence of IPOs
2. Demise of the SPACs
3. Pandemic Savings
4. Crypto Turmoil Curtailed
5. Buybacks
6. Capital Gains Worries Subsiding
7. Money Flowing into Index Funds
Personally, I do not know where the markets are heading. So I would probably be buying any oversold, fundamentally sound stock, that is trading at a fair valuation. And I would also be selling any overbought stock.
Intuitively, I think that it will be a tight boring Trading Market, until there is a new catalyst.
For next week, we have the following:-
1. June 1: Opec+ Meeting; Not expecting much.
2. June 7: New Products launch by Apple; Not expecting much too
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (31% from 34% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 22% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 30% (7 Counters)
c. US: 18% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 34% (6 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: To increase exposure to momentum stocks to 75%
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$66.66 from US$63.87 last week from US$65.51 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1904 from US$1882 last week from US$1844;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. With Bitcoin plunging, would those money from cryptos be flowing into Gold?
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$28.06 from US$27.65 from US$27.51
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.67 from US$4.51 from US$4.67;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$36480 from US$38547 last week from US$48,881 two weeks ago (@ Noon on May 29, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 38 from 34 last week from 40 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4204 from 4156 last week from 4174 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" last week from "Sell" two weeks ago
c. Sold GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF)
d. Sold Twitter
2. HK Equities - Higher. 29124 from 28458 from 28028;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Smoore
d. Sold ICBC
e. Traded ASM Pacific
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3601 from 3487 from 3490;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3179 from 3118 from 3055;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29149 from 28318 from 28084;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1594 from 1562 from 1583;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/2 IGB
b. Full Lock-down starting June 2
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on May 29 @ 12.30PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.86 from 108.94 last week from 109.37 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1253 from 3.1100 from 3.0977;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7712 from 0.7731 from 0.7776;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.2193 from 1.2180 from 1.2144;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7612 from 7.7641 from 7.7675;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1344 from 4.1413 from 4.1264;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3229 from 1.3316 from 1.3321;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. However, Tourism and Business Travel will not be happening soon
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3682 from 6.4343 from 6.4371;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.4196 from 1.4151 from 1.4096;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 90.03 from 90.02 from 90.32;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.58% from 1.62% last week from 1.64% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.14% from 0.16% from 0.15%
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.91 from 108.75 from 108.82;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.18 from 87.11 from 87.21;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2596 from 2869 from 2939; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
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Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun May 30, 2021 3:24 pm
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:11 pm
TOL @ Jun 6, 2021
Some Random Thoughts
The markets have been in a trading range so it's timely that I review some of the issues that are on affecting the markets:-
1. Expanded US Sanctions List: More Enforcement teeth. Treasury will now take lead from Defense. Not sure whether the US Funds have until Aug 2, 2022 or November 11, 2021 to divest. Monitoring my China Overseas Land (0688), Alibaba (9988) and Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033) on this issue.
2. Inflation: Raw Materials, Wages and Prices, are rising slowly. Should be good for the upstream Commodity companies. However, my Wilmar has not been moving. Only my RH Petrogas has been moving but it has been pathetic for so long that I have forgotten that I have this counter. Lesson Learnt: Always have a Stop Loss and a 3 Months Expiry Time.
3. Reopening: The number of Covid19 cases are dropping in China, US, Europe, Singapore, HK etc. Should be good for my China Overseas Land (0688), Conch Cement (0914), Uber etc. Need to buy more reopening counters eg. Airlines, Tourism, Casinos, Cosmetics, Retail etc.
4. Oil: Will the new supply from Iran and OPEC+, be able to counter the increasing demand from the reopening of the economies? US Summer Driving is coming up too.
5. Gold: Hitting Resistance; Sold GDXJ. Still sitting on GDX. If there's a crash, Gold would also be sold.
6. Bitcoin: Corrected more than 40% from the top. Would new money be still flowing into Cryptos? Would existing money in Cryptos be flowing out to other Assets eg. NFT, Gold, Speculative Tech etc?
7. Interest Rates: The Central Banksters will try to hold off raising rates as long as possible due to their "High Government Debts". It's likely that the markets will force the Central Banksters to act. So far, only the PBOC has been doing something reasonable. May need to buy some Banks for my portfolio.
8. Covid19: Vaccination and Testing are expanding. PPE restocking. Should be good for my Becton Dickson (BDX), Sino Biopharm (1177) and Riverstone for the next 1-2 years but they have been treading water.
9. Rolling Lockdowns: Something that we may have to get used to, for the next few years, with new variants etc. Maybe good to buy the vaccine companies if you need to have a jab every year.
10. Cybersecurity: With the two high profile hackings (Colonial Pipeline and JBS), this could also be something that we may have to live with. May buy a Cybersecuriity ETF to play this trend eg. HACK, BUG, CIBR or IHAK.
11. Clean Energy: With the US Infrastructure Program coming, my ICLN (Clean Energy ETF) should be doing well. Yet it has been treading water. This is the danger of chasing something after it has run up a lot.
12. Tech / Biotech Stocks: May be the time to buy. Correction has gone on for a while already. I only have ASM Pacific (0522), BABA, CPNG and Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033). Watching Tencent, Meituan, JD, Baidu, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, FB, NVDA, AMD, Microsoft, ARKK, ARKG, ARKF. ARKW etc.
Finally, I cannot see any risk on the horizon that can take the markets down. Hence, I would probably be continuing to trade the markets for a little while more.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 31% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 19% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (5 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 34% (8 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69.41 from US$66.66 last week from US$63.87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1894 from US$1904 last week from US$1882 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$27.92 from US$28.06 from US$27.65;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.52 from US$4.67 from US$4.51;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$36920 from US$36480 last week from US$38547 two weeks ago (@ 8.50 PM on June 4, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 57 from 38 last week from 34 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4230 from 4204 last week from 4156 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Buy" two weeks ago
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28918 from 29124 from 28458;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Conch Cement
d. Traded ASM Pacific
e. Traded Smoore
f. Traded Alibaba
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3592 from 3601 from 3487;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3151 from 3179 from 3118;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28942 from 29149 from 28318;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1578 from 1594 from 1562;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Traded Berjaya Land
c. Traded Serba Dynamik
d. Sold 1/4 Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 4 @ 8.30PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.84 from 109.86 last week from 108.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1117 from 3.1253 from 3.1100;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7692 from 0.7712 from 0.7731;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2146 from 1.2193 from 1.2180;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7578 from 7.7612 from 7.7641;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1282 from 4.1344 from 4.1413;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3256 from 1.3229 from 1.3316;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. When will Tourism and Business Travel resume?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4038 from 6.3682 from 6.4343;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat; 1.4162 from 1.4196 from 1.4151;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.39 from 90.03 from 90.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.63% from 1.58% last week from 1.62% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.14% from 0.16%
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 108.78 from 108.91 from 108.75;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 87.08 from 87.18 from 87.11;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2472 from 2596 from 2869; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Some Random Thoughts
The markets have been in a trading range so it's timely that I review some of the issues that are on affecting the markets:-
1. Expanded US Sanctions List: More Enforcement teeth. Treasury will now take lead from Defense. Not sure whether the US Funds have until Aug 2, 2022 or November 11, 2021 to divest. Monitoring my China Overseas Land (0688), Alibaba (9988) and Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033) on this issue.
2. Inflation: Raw Materials, Wages and Prices, are rising slowly. Should be good for the upstream Commodity companies. However, my Wilmar has not been moving. Only my RH Petrogas has been moving but it has been pathetic for so long that I have forgotten that I have this counter. Lesson Learnt: Always have a Stop Loss and a 3 Months Expiry Time.
3. Reopening: The number of Covid19 cases are dropping in China, US, Europe, Singapore, HK etc. Should be good for my China Overseas Land (0688), Conch Cement (0914), Uber etc. Need to buy more reopening counters eg. Airlines, Tourism, Casinos, Cosmetics, Retail etc.
4. Oil: Will the new supply from Iran and OPEC+, be able to counter the increasing demand from the reopening of the economies? US Summer Driving is coming up too.
5. Gold: Hitting Resistance; Sold GDXJ. Still sitting on GDX. If there's a crash, Gold would also be sold.
6. Bitcoin: Corrected more than 40% from the top. Would new money be still flowing into Cryptos? Would existing money in Cryptos be flowing out to other Assets eg. NFT, Gold, Speculative Tech etc?
7. Interest Rates: The Central Banksters will try to hold off raising rates as long as possible due to their "High Government Debts". It's likely that the markets will force the Central Banksters to act. So far, only the PBOC has been doing something reasonable. May need to buy some Banks for my portfolio.
8. Covid19: Vaccination and Testing are expanding. PPE restocking. Should be good for my Becton Dickson (BDX), Sino Biopharm (1177) and Riverstone for the next 1-2 years but they have been treading water.
9. Rolling Lockdowns: Something that we may have to get used to, for the next few years, with new variants etc. Maybe good to buy the vaccine companies if you need to have a jab every year.
10. Cybersecurity: With the two high profile hackings (Colonial Pipeline and JBS), this could also be something that we may have to live with. May buy a Cybersecuriity ETF to play this trend eg. HACK, BUG, CIBR or IHAK.
11. Clean Energy: With the US Infrastructure Program coming, my ICLN (Clean Energy ETF) should be doing well. Yet it has been treading water. This is the danger of chasing something after it has run up a lot.
12. Tech / Biotech Stocks: May be the time to buy. Correction has gone on for a while already. I only have ASM Pacific (0522), BABA, CPNG and Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033). Watching Tencent, Meituan, JD, Baidu, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, FB, NVDA, AMD, Microsoft, ARKK, ARKG, ARKF. ARKW etc.
Finally, I cannot see any risk on the horizon that can take the markets down. Hence, I would probably be continuing to trade the markets for a little while more.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 31% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 19% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (5 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 34% (8 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69.41 from US$66.66 last week from US$63.87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1894 from US$1904 last week from US$1882 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$27.92 from US$28.06 from US$27.65;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.52 from US$4.67 from US$4.51;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$36920 from US$36480 last week from US$38547 two weeks ago (@ 8.50 PM on June 4, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 57 from 38 last week from 34 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4230 from 4204 last week from 4156 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Buy" two weeks ago
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28918 from 29124 from 28458;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Conch Cement
d. Traded ASM Pacific
e. Traded Smoore
f. Traded Alibaba
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3592 from 3601 from 3487;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3151 from 3179 from 3118;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28942 from 29149 from 28318;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1578 from 1594 from 1562;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Traded Berjaya Land
c. Traded Serba Dynamik
d. Sold 1/4 Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 4 @ 8.30PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.84 from 109.86 last week from 108.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1117 from 3.1253 from 3.1100;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7692 from 0.7712 from 0.7731;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2146 from 1.2193 from 1.2180;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7578 from 7.7612 from 7.7641;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1282 from 4.1344 from 4.1413;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3256 from 1.3229 from 1.3316;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. When will Tourism and Business Travel resume?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4038 from 6.3682 from 6.4343;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat; 1.4162 from 1.4196 from 1.4151;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.39 from 90.03 from 90.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.63% from 1.58% last week from 1.62% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.14% from 0.16%
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 108.78 from 108.91 from 108.75;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 87.08 from 87.18 from 87.11;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2472 from 2596 from 2869; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:48 pm
TOL @ Jun 13, 2021
Summer Doldrums?
The markets have not been going anywhere for the past few weeks and it's getting to be very boring.
There are no animal spirits nor volatility, except for Cryptos but I do not speculate in Cryptos.
Anyway, the following are my views on the various countries that I trade in:-
1. US Stocks are elevated and I do not feel like chasing them. I'm still watching some US tech counters that have corrected. Not sure how the proposed "15% Minimum Global Corporate Tax" would affect their share prices though. It's likely that I would be buying ETFs here than Individual stocks.
2. For HK stocks, there could be some reopening plays but I dont want to be too early. I'm also watching some Tech counters in HK.
3. As for Singapore stocks, it has not gone anywhere for a while and I have not being able to find any convincing buy for a very long time. Maybe the travel bubble can take off soon eg. HK, Australia and NZ. BTW, I still have some Isetan and with the appointment of Savills to sell Wisma Atria, maybe there could be some action tomorrow.
4. For Malaysian counters, there are some action in the Penny Stocks but I dont really buy companies that I have not researched nor do I like Day-Trading. There could be some reopening plays but again, I dont want to be too early to the party. The "total lockdown" has just been extended for another 2 weeks.
So the Summer Doldrums is definitely here.
I still dont think that there's a crash on the horizon but the "The Motley Fool" did recently said that a crash is imminent due to the following reasons:-
1. Historically high valuations
2. Rallies from a bear-market bottom tend be volatile
3. Crashes and corrections happen on average, every 1.87 years
4. The Federal Reserve can't remain dovish forever
5. Margin Debt is skyrocketing
For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. Jun 15 & 16: US - Fed Meeting
2. Jun 16: Malaysia - Ruler's Conference
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 34% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 35% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (7 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$70.81 from US$69.41 last week from US$66.66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1879 from US$1894 last week from US$1904 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$28.05 from US$27.92 from US$28.06;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.55 from US$4.52 from US$4.67;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$35850 from US$36920 last week from US$36480 two weeks ago (@ 10.30 AM on June 12, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 54 from 57 last week from 38 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4247 from 4230 last week from 4204 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Buy" two weeks ago
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28842 from 28918 from 29124;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3590 from 3592 from 3601;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3158 from 3151 from 3179;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. Sold Ascendas Reit
5. Japan Equities - Flat. 28949 from 28942 from 29149;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1575 from 1578 from 1594;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Sold Berjaya Land
c. Traded Serba Dynamik
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 16 @ 10.40 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.66 from 109.84 last week from 109.86 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0993 from 3.1117 from 3.1253;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7708 from 0.7692 from 0.7712;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.2107 from 1.2146 from 1.2193;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7614 from 7.7578 from 7.7612;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1088 from 4.1282 from 4.1344;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3257 from 1.3256 from 1.3229;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3984 from 6.4038 from 6.3682;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat; 1.4108 from 1.4162 from 1.4196;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.56 from 90.39 from 90.03;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.45% from 1.63% last week from 1.58% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.15% from 0.16% from 0.14%
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.49 from 108.78 from 108.91;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.62 from 87.08 from 87.18;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2857 from 2472 from 2596; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Summer Doldrums?
The markets have not been going anywhere for the past few weeks and it's getting to be very boring.
There are no animal spirits nor volatility, except for Cryptos but I do not speculate in Cryptos.
Anyway, the following are my views on the various countries that I trade in:-
1. US Stocks are elevated and I do not feel like chasing them. I'm still watching some US tech counters that have corrected. Not sure how the proposed "15% Minimum Global Corporate Tax" would affect their share prices though. It's likely that I would be buying ETFs here than Individual stocks.
2. For HK stocks, there could be some reopening plays but I dont want to be too early. I'm also watching some Tech counters in HK.
3. As for Singapore stocks, it has not gone anywhere for a while and I have not being able to find any convincing buy for a very long time. Maybe the travel bubble can take off soon eg. HK, Australia and NZ. BTW, I still have some Isetan and with the appointment of Savills to sell Wisma Atria, maybe there could be some action tomorrow.
4. For Malaysian counters, there are some action in the Penny Stocks but I dont really buy companies that I have not researched nor do I like Day-Trading. There could be some reopening plays but again, I dont want to be too early to the party. The "total lockdown" has just been extended for another 2 weeks.
So the Summer Doldrums is definitely here.
I still dont think that there's a crash on the horizon but the "The Motley Fool" did recently said that a crash is imminent due to the following reasons:-
1. Historically high valuations
2. Rallies from a bear-market bottom tend be volatile
3. Crashes and corrections happen on average, every 1.87 years
4. The Federal Reserve can't remain dovish forever
5. Margin Debt is skyrocketing
For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. Jun 15 & 16: US - Fed Meeting
2. Jun 16: Malaysia - Ruler's Conference
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 34% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 35% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (7 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$70.81 from US$69.41 last week from US$66.66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1879 from US$1894 last week from US$1904 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$28.05 from US$27.92 from US$28.06;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.55 from US$4.52 from US$4.67;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$35850 from US$36920 last week from US$36480 two weeks ago (@ 10.30 AM on June 12, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 54 from 57 last week from 38 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4247 from 4230 last week from 4204 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Buy" two weeks ago
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28842 from 28918 from 29124;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3590 from 3592 from 3601;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3158 from 3151 from 3179;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. Sold Ascendas Reit
5. Japan Equities - Flat. 28949 from 28942 from 29149;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1575 from 1578 from 1594;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Sold Berjaya Land
c. Traded Serba Dynamik
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 16 @ 10.40 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.66 from 109.84 last week from 109.86 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0993 from 3.1117 from 3.1253;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7708 from 0.7692 from 0.7712;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.2107 from 1.2146 from 1.2193;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7614 from 7.7578 from 7.7612;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1088 from 4.1282 from 4.1344;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3257 from 1.3256 from 1.3229;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3984 from 6.4038 from 6.3682;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat; 1.4108 from 1.4162 from 1.4196;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.56 from 90.39 from 90.03;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.45% from 1.63% last week from 1.58% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.15% from 0.16% from 0.14%
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.49 from 108.78 from 108.91;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.62 from 87.08 from 87.18;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2857 from 2472 from 2596; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:42 pm
TOL @ Jun 20, 2021
Deciphering The Fed Speak
The following are some of the reactions after the Fed meeting:-
1. Commodities are down. It does not help that the USD is rising and that China would be releasing some of their stockpiles. So is this a buying opportunity or is this the end for Commodities? Intuitively, I think that it's just profit-taking after the huge run-up and there could be some buying opportunity later.
2. USD is rising eventhough the two rates increase would only be in 2023, (brought forward from 2024). Will the Feds now be moving the rates increase from 2023 to 2022 in the next few Feds Meeting? (The Jackson Hole meeting is not too far away, on August 26-28).
3. Value Stocks has dropped. Is this a buying opportunity?
4. Tech Stocks is rallying. Is it time to chase tech stocks now?
This four issues are inter-connected so I think that it would be better for me to wait and see where things are going first.
It could get volatile very quickly so it's safer to ease my way into things over the next few weeks.
Let's revisit what the Fed is supposed to be doing. Congress has assigned the Fed to conduct the nation's monetary policy to support the goals of :-
1. Maximum employment
2. Stable prices and
3. Moderate long-term interest rates
It's the last objective that is the most important. The US government owes so much money that they need to keep interest rates as low as possible, for as long as possible. The rest are smokes and mirrors.
Theoretically speaking, employment and stable prices, could be achieved through various Stimulus Programs without the existence of the Feds. However, the Feds can create money out of thin air and that is a very valuable tool. And the Feds would be continuing to do that until confidence in the whole system is totally lost.
Anyway, I'm starting to watch my exposure to Equities. It's currently still at a safe level of 35%.
However, it would not be fun if the markets starts correcting while I'm sitting on 35% Equities.
So going forward, I may need to trim some of my holdings whenever there's a chance.
For next week, there's not much happening and I think that things would be very slow until the arrival of new money from the new month of July and thereafter, the Q2 Earnings season.
As for Covid19, I think that the rolling lockdowns will continue due to the new variants. Therefore, I'm not keeping my hopes too high for any quick reopening. I'm also not too sure that those travel bubbles can take off and be sustained. I'm now looking at 2H 2022 for any meaningful reopening.
Finally, to all the fathers out there, a very "Happy Father's Day" to you!
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (35% from 33% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (10 Counters)
c. US: 15% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 32% (9 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71.40 from US$70.81 last week from US$69.41 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1764 from US$1879 last week from US$1894 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.93 from US$28.05 from US$27.92;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.12 from US$4.55 from US$4.52;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$35372 from US$35850 last week from US$36920 two weeks ago (@ 11.15 AM on June 19, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 30 from 54 last week from 57 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4166 from 4247 last week from 4230\two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Sell"
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Flat. 28801 from 28842 from 28918;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought SJM
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3525 from 3590 from 3592;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3144 from 3158 from 3151;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Flat. 28964 from 28949 from 28942;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1589 from 1575 from 1578;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Bought KPower
c. Traded Berjaya Land
d. Sold 1/2 Serba Dynamik
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 18 @ 2.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.01 from 109.66 last week from 109.84 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0891 from 3.0993 from 3.1117;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7539 from 0.7708 from 0.7692;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1907 from 1.2107 from 1.2146;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7644 from 7.7614 from 7.7578;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1447 from 4.1088 from 4.1282;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3417 from 1.3257 from 1.3256;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4494 from 6.3984 from 6.4038;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3902 from 1.4108 from 1.4162;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 91.93 from 90.56 from 90.39;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.51% from 1.45% last week from 1.63% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.21% from 0.15% from 0.16%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.36 from 109.49 from 108.78;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.47 from 87.62 from 87.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3267 from 2857 from 2472; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Deciphering The Fed Speak
The following are some of the reactions after the Fed meeting:-
1. Commodities are down. It does not help that the USD is rising and that China would be releasing some of their stockpiles. So is this a buying opportunity or is this the end for Commodities? Intuitively, I think that it's just profit-taking after the huge run-up and there could be some buying opportunity later.
2. USD is rising eventhough the two rates increase would only be in 2023, (brought forward from 2024). Will the Feds now be moving the rates increase from 2023 to 2022 in the next few Feds Meeting? (The Jackson Hole meeting is not too far away, on August 26-28).
3. Value Stocks has dropped. Is this a buying opportunity?
4. Tech Stocks is rallying. Is it time to chase tech stocks now?
This four issues are inter-connected so I think that it would be better for me to wait and see where things are going first.
It could get volatile very quickly so it's safer to ease my way into things over the next few weeks.
Let's revisit what the Fed is supposed to be doing. Congress has assigned the Fed to conduct the nation's monetary policy to support the goals of :-
1. Maximum employment
2. Stable prices and
3. Moderate long-term interest rates
It's the last objective that is the most important. The US government owes so much money that they need to keep interest rates as low as possible, for as long as possible. The rest are smokes and mirrors.
Theoretically speaking, employment and stable prices, could be achieved through various Stimulus Programs without the existence of the Feds. However, the Feds can create money out of thin air and that is a very valuable tool. And the Feds would be continuing to do that until confidence in the whole system is totally lost.
Anyway, I'm starting to watch my exposure to Equities. It's currently still at a safe level of 35%.
However, it would not be fun if the markets starts correcting while I'm sitting on 35% Equities.
So going forward, I may need to trim some of my holdings whenever there's a chance.
For next week, there's not much happening and I think that things would be very slow until the arrival of new money from the new month of July and thereafter, the Q2 Earnings season.
As for Covid19, I think that the rolling lockdowns will continue due to the new variants. Therefore, I'm not keeping my hopes too high for any quick reopening. I'm also not too sure that those travel bubbles can take off and be sustained. I'm now looking at 2H 2022 for any meaningful reopening.
Finally, to all the fathers out there, a very "Happy Father's Day" to you!
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (35% from 33% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (10 Counters)
c. US: 15% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 32% (9 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
6. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only
Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71.40 from US$70.81 last week from US$69.41 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1764 from US$1879 last week from US$1894 two weeks ago;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins and GDX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.93 from US$28.05 from US$27.92;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.12 from US$4.55 from US$4.52;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$35372 from US$35850 last week from US$36920 two weeks ago (@ 11.15 AM on June 19, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 30 from 54 last week from 57 two weeks ago;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4166 from 4247 last week from 4230\two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Sell"
c. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Flat. 28801 from 28842 from 28918;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought SJM
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3525 from 3590 from 3592;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3144 from 3158 from 3151;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Flat. 28964 from 28949 from 28942;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1589 from 1575 from 1578;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Bought KPower
c. Traded Berjaya Land
d. Sold 1/2 Serba Dynamik
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 18 @ 2.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.01 from 109.66 last week from 109.84 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0891 from 3.0993 from 3.1117;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7539 from 0.7708 from 0.7692;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1907 from 1.2107 from 1.2146;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7644 from 7.7614 from 7.7578;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1447 from 4.1088 from 4.1282;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3417 from 1.3257 from 1.3256;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4494 from 6.3984 from 6.4038;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3902 from 1.4108 from 1.4162;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 91.93 from 90.56 from 90.39;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.51% from 1.45% last week from 1.63% two weeks ago
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.21% from 0.15% from 0.16%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.36 from 109.49 from 108.78;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.47 from 87.62 from 87.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3267 from 2857 from 2472; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:55 pm
TOL @ June 27, 2021
1H Window Dressing
The markets have been quite strong over the past few days and I think that it's because of 1H Window Dressing activities.
If that's the case, the markets should continued to be be strong till the end of June.
In addition, we also have the new money entering the markets in early July.
Thereafter, it would be earnings season again in mid-July.
So intuitively, the markets should be strong until the end of July or even early August.
However, in view of the current volatility in the markets, I will probably take any good profits first, instead of waiting till early August.
Anyway, my Cash level is getting low and I do not have much bullets left to take advantage of any extended correction. Therefore, I need to remind myself not to be too confident nor complacent.
In addition, the issues of Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Higher USD, Lower Commodities, Higher Taxes, Covid19 etc. have not gone away.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 35% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 17% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74.00 from US$71.40 last week from US$70.81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1782 from US$1764 from US$1879;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$26.18 from US$25.93 from US$28.05;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.28 from US$4.12 from US$4.55;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$32060 from US$35372 from US$35850 (@ 11.00 AM on June 26, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 44 from 30 from 54;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4281 from 4166 from 4247;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Bought GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 29288 from 28801 from 28842;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Tencent
d. Sold ASM Pacific
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3608 from 3525 from 3590;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3144 from 3158 from 3151;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29066 from 28964 from 28949;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1560 from 1589 from 1575;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Added to KPower
c. Subscribed to IGB Commercial Reit IPO thru current IGB holdings
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 26 @ 11.15 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.78 from 110.01 last week from 109.66 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0952 from 3.0891 from 3.0993;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7587 from 0.7539 from 0.7708;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1935 from 1.1907 from 1.2107;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7615 from 7.7644 from 7.7614;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1558 from 4.1447 from 4.1088;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3426 from 1.3417 from 1.3257;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4559 from 6.4494 from 6.3984;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3882 from 1.3902 from 1.4108;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.85 from 91.93 from 90.56;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.52% from 1.51% from 1.45%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.27% from 0.21% from 0.15%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.85 from 109.36 from 109.49;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.93 from 87.47 from 87.62;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3255 from 3267 from 2857; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
1H Window Dressing
The markets have been quite strong over the past few days and I think that it's because of 1H Window Dressing activities.
If that's the case, the markets should continued to be be strong till the end of June.
In addition, we also have the new money entering the markets in early July.
Thereafter, it would be earnings season again in mid-July.
So intuitively, the markets should be strong until the end of July or even early August.
However, in view of the current volatility in the markets, I will probably take any good profits first, instead of waiting till early August.
Anyway, my Cash level is getting low and I do not have much bullets left to take advantage of any extended correction. Therefore, I need to remind myself not to be too confident nor complacent.
In addition, the issues of Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Higher USD, Lower Commodities, Higher Taxes, Covid19 etc. have not gone away.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 35% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 17% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 25%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74.00 from US$71.40 last week from US$70.81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1782 from US$1764 from US$1879;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$26.18 from US$25.93 from US$28.05;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.28 from US$4.12 from US$4.55;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$32060 from US$35372 from US$35850 (@ 11.00 AM on June 26, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 44 from 30 from 54;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4281 from 4166 from 4247;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Bought GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 29288 from 28801 from 28842;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Tencent
d. Sold ASM Pacific
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3608 from 3525 from 3590;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3144 from 3158 from 3151;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29066 from 28964 from 28949;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1560 from 1589 from 1575;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Added to KPower
c. Subscribed to IGB Commercial Reit IPO thru current IGB holdings
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 26 @ 11.15 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.78 from 110.01 last week from 109.66 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0952 from 3.0891 from 3.0993;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7587 from 0.7539 from 0.7708;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1935 from 1.1907 from 1.2107;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7615 from 7.7644 from 7.7614;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1558 from 4.1447 from 4.1088;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3426 from 1.3417 from 1.3257;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4559 from 6.4494 from 6.3984;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3882 from 1.3902 from 1.4108;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.85 from 91.93 from 90.56;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.52% from 1.51% from 1.45%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.27% from 0.21% from 0.15%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.85 from 109.36 from 109.49;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.93 from 87.47 from 87.62;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3255 from 3267 from 2857; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:34 pm
TOL @ Jul 4, 2021
US 2Q Earnings Season
US 2Q Earnings Season will begin in mid-July and the consensus view is that it will be a strong catalyst for stocks to continuing rising.
According to FactSet, a record number of companies have provided positive guidance for 2Q. As a result, analysts have upped 2Q earnings estimates by about 7% in the past three months.
The S&P 500 is now expected to achieve 63% average annual earnings growth. Second-quarter revenue is forecast to grow by about 20% year-over-year.
In addition to strong US 2Q Earnings, the bulls are also looking at the following:-
1. Fed's continue support of Low Interest Rates
2. Reopening of the Economies from Covid19
3. US Infrastructure Program
4. Ample Liquidity
5. Pent-Up Demand
etc.
On the other side, the bears are now talking of:-
1. Low Breadth in the rising indices
2. Rolling Lockdowns and new variants
3. Weak Sentiments
4. High Margin Debts
5. Higher USD
etc.
As for myself, I think that it's a Trading Market until 2Q Earnings Season. And if I dont take my profits, someone else will, as seen in the past few days.
I hesitated about taking my small profits on Tencent, KPower and Vivocom and some of those profits are now gone.
As for next week, we have the Cyber Polygon on July 9. I think that it's a non-event but the online world is abuzz with various conspiracy theories.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (35% from 38% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 33% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75.04 from US$74.00 last week from US$71.40 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1788 from US$1782 from US$1764;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$26.60 from US$26.18 from US$25.93;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.28 from US$4.28 from US$4.12;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$34,248 from US$32060 from US$35372 (@ 3.40PM on Jul 3, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral: 45 from 44 from 30;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4352 from 4281 from 4166;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Traded DIDI Global
e. Sold Coupang (CPNG)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28310 from 29288 from 28801;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Traded Alibaba (9988)
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3519 from 3608 from 3525;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3129 from 3144 from 3158;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28783 from 29066 from 28964;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1533 from 1560 from 1589;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Traded KPower
c. Traded Vivocom
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 3 @ 7.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 111.02 from 110.78 last week from 110.01 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0915 from 3.0952 from 3.0891;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7528 from 0.7587 from 0.7539;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1866 from 1.1935 from 1.1907;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7653 from 7.7615 from 7.7644;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1638 from 4.1558 from 4.1447;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3468 from 1.3426 from 1.3417;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4724 from 6.4559 from 6.4494;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3829 from 1.3882 from 1.3902;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.23 from 91.85 from 91.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.43% from 1.52% from 1.51%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.24% from 0.27% from 0.21%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.96 from 109.85 from 109.36;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.06 from 87.93 from 87.47;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3285 from 3255 from 3267; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
US 2Q Earnings Season
US 2Q Earnings Season will begin in mid-July and the consensus view is that it will be a strong catalyst for stocks to continuing rising.
According to FactSet, a record number of companies have provided positive guidance for 2Q. As a result, analysts have upped 2Q earnings estimates by about 7% in the past three months.
The S&P 500 is now expected to achieve 63% average annual earnings growth. Second-quarter revenue is forecast to grow by about 20% year-over-year.
In addition to strong US 2Q Earnings, the bulls are also looking at the following:-
1. Fed's continue support of Low Interest Rates
2. Reopening of the Economies from Covid19
3. US Infrastructure Program
4. Ample Liquidity
5. Pent-Up Demand
etc.
On the other side, the bears are now talking of:-
1. Low Breadth in the rising indices
2. Rolling Lockdowns and new variants
3. Weak Sentiments
4. High Margin Debts
5. Higher USD
etc.
As for myself, I think that it's a Trading Market until 2Q Earnings Season. And if I dont take my profits, someone else will, as seen in the past few days.
I hesitated about taking my small profits on Tencent, KPower and Vivocom and some of those profits are now gone.
As for next week, we have the Cyber Polygon on July 9. I think that it's a non-event but the online world is abuzz with various conspiracy theories.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (35% from 38% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 33% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75.04 from US$74.00 last week from US$71.40 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1788 from US$1782 from US$1764;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$26.60 from US$26.18 from US$25.93;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.28 from US$4.28 from US$4.12;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$34,248 from US$32060 from US$35372 (@ 3.40PM on Jul 3, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral: 45 from 44 from 30;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4352 from 4281 from 4166;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Traded DIDI Global
e. Sold Coupang (CPNG)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 28310 from 29288 from 28801;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Traded Alibaba (9988)
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3519 from 3608 from 3525;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3129 from 3144 from 3158;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28783 from 29066 from 28964;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1533 from 1560 from 1589;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. Traded KPower
c. Traded Vivocom
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 3 @ 7.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 111.02 from 110.78 last week from 110.01 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0915 from 3.0952 from 3.0891;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7528 from 0.7587 from 0.7539;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1866 from 1.1935 from 1.1907;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7653 from 7.7615 from 7.7644;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1638 from 4.1558 from 4.1447;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3468 from 1.3426 from 1.3417;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4724 from 6.4559 from 6.4494;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3829 from 1.3882 from 1.3902;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.23 from 91.85 from 91.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.43% from 1.52% from 1.51%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.24% from 0.27% from 0.21%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.96 from 109.85 from 109.36;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.06 from 87.93 from 87.47;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3285 from 3255 from 3267; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:28 am
TOL @ Jul 11, 2021
TINA (There Is No Alternative)?
The US markets have been grinding higher while the rest of world's markets have been quite weak.
Some "experts" are saying that the US Equities Market will continue to grind higher due to the following reasons:-
1. Upcoming 2Q Earnings Season
2. Infrastructure Program
3. Fed's Support
4. Low Interest Rates
5. Reopening
etc.
And the TINA trade will supposedly continue for the following reasons:-
1. Bonds are not attractive due to the very low interest rates
2. US Properties have gone up a lot already. Interest rates may also be rising within 18 months
3. Commodities are still expensive even after the recent correction. The USD has been strong and will continue to be strong due to the expected rise in interest rates.
4. Cryptos are not really an Asset Class and with the recent rout, people are also thinking twice about it
5. Cash could be a possible place to ride out the volatility but only for the short term as inflation could be returning
As for myself, I think that if the markets do spiked up at 2Q Earnings Season, then it does not hurt to take some profits for the following reasons:-
1. Rolling Lockdowns will probably continue till 1Q 2023
2. The US market is priced for perfection
3. Inflation is returning; Have you not noticed the prices of your Daily Necessities?
4. US Interest Rates should be rising in about 18 months
5. Interest rates at Developing Markets could be rising sooner due to the weakness of their local currency versus the USD
6. China seems to be increasing Liquidity again. This is a surprise as everyone thought that things are great there from their reopening story.
As for next week, I would be watching the US Bank Earnings. They are all expected to report great earnings as well as Buybacks and Higher Dividends.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (37% from 35% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 35% (10 Counters)
c. US: 17% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74.63 from US$75.04 last week from US$74.00 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1809 from US$1788 from US$1782;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$26.19 from US$26.60 from US$26.18;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.34 from US$4.28 from US$4.28;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Higher. US$33845 from US$34,248 from US$32060 (@ 4.20PM on Jul 10, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Will Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla?
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 37 from 45 from 44;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4352 from 4281 from 4166;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Bought DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Lower. 27345 from 28310 from 29288;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Meituan
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3524 from 3519 from 3608;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Flat; 3131 from 3129 from 3144;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27940 from 28783 from 29066;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1521 from 1533 from 1560;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. No Trade
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 10 @ 4.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 110.10 from 111.02 last week from 110.78 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1023 from 3.0915 from 3.0952;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7485 from 0.7528 from 0.7587;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1876 from 1.1866 from 1.1935;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7674 from 7.7653 from 7.7615;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1918 from 4.1638 from 4.1558;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3512 from 1.3468 from 1.3426;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4788 from 6.4724 from 6.4559;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Higher; 1.3913 from 1.3829 from 1.3882;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.13 from 92.23 from 91.85;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.36% from 1.43% from 1.52%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% from 0.24% from 0.27%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 109.95 from 109.96 from 109.85;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 88.00 frpm 88.06 from 87.93;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3300 from 3285 from 3255; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
TINA (There Is No Alternative)?
The US markets have been grinding higher while the rest of world's markets have been quite weak.
Some "experts" are saying that the US Equities Market will continue to grind higher due to the following reasons:-
1. Upcoming 2Q Earnings Season
2. Infrastructure Program
3. Fed's Support
4. Low Interest Rates
5. Reopening
etc.
And the TINA trade will supposedly continue for the following reasons:-
1. Bonds are not attractive due to the very low interest rates
2. US Properties have gone up a lot already. Interest rates may also be rising within 18 months
3. Commodities are still expensive even after the recent correction. The USD has been strong and will continue to be strong due to the expected rise in interest rates.
4. Cryptos are not really an Asset Class and with the recent rout, people are also thinking twice about it
5. Cash could be a possible place to ride out the volatility but only for the short term as inflation could be returning
As for myself, I think that if the markets do spiked up at 2Q Earnings Season, then it does not hurt to take some profits for the following reasons:-
1. Rolling Lockdowns will probably continue till 1Q 2023
2. The US market is priced for perfection
3. Inflation is returning; Have you not noticed the prices of your Daily Necessities?
4. US Interest Rates should be rising in about 18 months
5. Interest rates at Developing Markets could be rising sooner due to the weakness of their local currency versus the USD
6. China seems to be increasing Liquidity again. This is a surprise as everyone thought that things are great there from their reopening story.
As for next week, I would be watching the US Bank Earnings. They are all expected to report great earnings as well as Buybacks and Higher Dividends.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (37% from 35% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 35% (10 Counters)
c. US: 17% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74.63 from US$75.04 last week from US$74.00 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1809 from US$1788 from US$1782;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$26.19 from US$26.60 from US$26.18;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.34 from US$4.28 from US$4.28;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Higher. US$33845 from US$34,248 from US$32060 (@ 4.20PM on Jul 10, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Will Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla?
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 37 from 45 from 44;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4352 from 4281 from 4166;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Bought DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Lower. 27345 from 28310 from 29288;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Meituan
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3524 from 3519 from 3608;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Flat; 3131 from 3129 from 3144;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27940 from 28783 from 29066;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1521 from 1533 from 1560;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Full Lock-down from June 2
b. No Trade
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 10 @ 4.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 110.10 from 111.02 last week from 110.78 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1023 from 3.0915 from 3.0952;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7485 from 0.7528 from 0.7587;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1876 from 1.1866 from 1.1935;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7674 from 7.7653 from 7.7615;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1918 from 4.1638 from 4.1558;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3512 from 1.3468 from 1.3426;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4788 from 6.4724 from 6.4559;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Higher; 1.3913 from 1.3829 from 1.3882;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.13 from 92.23 from 91.85;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.36% from 1.43% from 1.52%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% from 0.24% from 0.27%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 109.95 from 109.96 from 109.85;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 88.00 frpm 88.06 from 87.93;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3300 from 3285 from 3255; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:25 pm
Buy, Sell or Hold?
The US Markets have not gone anywhere for the past week.
On the other hand, the HK market has rebounded slightly, following the RRR cut in China. Therefore, I have taken the opportunity to sell some HK shares, to raise some Cash.
If HK continues to go up next week, it's very likely that I would be reducing my positions further.
I have been having that strange feeling that things do not feel that right. The markets do not feel strong and I dont want to have a big equities position when there's a correction.
Only the S&P 500 looks strong. For the Russell 2000, there are now more new lows than highs.
At the same time, the bulls are continuing to focus on the following:-
1. The Central Banksters are keeping interest rates low, as long as possible
2. The Biden Administration will continue to throw "helicopter money" around. The Infrastruture Program will be next.
3. Increased Vaccination leading to reopening of economies (hopefully)
4. The CNN Greed & Fear Index is now at "Extreme Fear" of 23. That means that the US market is "Oversold" and may be due for a temporary rebound.
etc.
If the US market does spike up next week then it's very likely that I would also be selling some US stocks. I'm also hoping that 2Q US Earnings season will provide some catalyst for the US stocks to rebound so that I can reduce my existing positions.
For Singapore, I have not had any convincing ideas for a long time. My positions there eg. Wilmar, Riverstone, Isetan and RH Petrogas, have been treading water for a long time.
For Malaysia, I'm watching some Special Situations but it's not likely that I would be increasing my positions further, due to the Political Issues, Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns etc.
For next week, I would continue to be looking at the 2Q earnings. If the machines are buying on the announcements then I would be there, waiting to sell to them. Hopefully, my HI (Human Intelligence) would be smarter than their AI (Artificial Intelligence).
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 37% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (9 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71.46 from US$74.63 last week from US$75.04 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1813 from US$1809 from US$1788;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.71 from US$26.19 from US$26.60;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.31 from US$4.34 from US$4.28;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$31272 from US$33845 from US$34,248 @ 12.20PM on Jul 17, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Will Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla?
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear: 23 from 37 from 45;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4327 from 4352 from 4281;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Sold DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Higher. 28005 from 27345 from 28310;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Vinda
d. Sold Meituan
e. Sold Alibaba
f. Sold HKEX
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3539 from 3524 from 3519;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3152 from 3131 from 3129;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 28003 from 27940 from 28783;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1522 from 1521 from 1533;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold Berjaya Land
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 17 @ 1.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 110.09 from 110.10 last week from 111.02 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.1020 from 3.1023 from 3.0915;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7370 from 0.7485 from 0.7528;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR weaker. 1.1805 frrom 1.1876 from 1.1866;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7680 from 7.7674 from 7.7653;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2095 from 4.1918 from 4.1638;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3570 from 1.3512 from 1.3468;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.4792 from 6.4788 from 6.4724;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.3772 from 1.3913 from 1.3829;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.69 from 92.13 from 92.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.30% from 1.36% from 1.43%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.23% from 0.21% from 0.24%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 109.95 from 109.96 from 109.85;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.67 from 88.00 frpm 88.06;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3039 from 3300 from 3285; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
The US Markets have not gone anywhere for the past week.
On the other hand, the HK market has rebounded slightly, following the RRR cut in China. Therefore, I have taken the opportunity to sell some HK shares, to raise some Cash.
If HK continues to go up next week, it's very likely that I would be reducing my positions further.
I have been having that strange feeling that things do not feel that right. The markets do not feel strong and I dont want to have a big equities position when there's a correction.
Only the S&P 500 looks strong. For the Russell 2000, there are now more new lows than highs.
At the same time, the bulls are continuing to focus on the following:-
1. The Central Banksters are keeping interest rates low, as long as possible
2. The Biden Administration will continue to throw "helicopter money" around. The Infrastruture Program will be next.
3. Increased Vaccination leading to reopening of economies (hopefully)
4. The CNN Greed & Fear Index is now at "Extreme Fear" of 23. That means that the US market is "Oversold" and may be due for a temporary rebound.
etc.
If the US market does spike up next week then it's very likely that I would also be selling some US stocks. I'm also hoping that 2Q US Earnings season will provide some catalyst for the US stocks to rebound so that I can reduce my existing positions.
For Singapore, I have not had any convincing ideas for a long time. My positions there eg. Wilmar, Riverstone, Isetan and RH Petrogas, have been treading water for a long time.
For Malaysia, I'm watching some Special Situations but it's not likely that I would be increasing my positions further, due to the Political Issues, Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns etc.
For next week, I would continue to be looking at the 2Q earnings. If the machines are buying on the announcements then I would be there, waiting to sell to them. Hopefully, my HI (Human Intelligence) would be smarter than their AI (Artificial Intelligence).
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 37% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (9 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71.46 from US$74.63 last week from US$75.04 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving coming up
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1813 from US$1809 from US$1788;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.71 from US$26.19 from US$26.60;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.31 from US$4.34 from US$4.28;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$31272 from US$33845 from US$34,248 @ 12.20PM on Jul 17, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
f. Tesla will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
g. Will Anonymous will be targetting Elon Musk and Tesla?
h. Is El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin, that big a deal?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear: 23 from 37 from 45;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4327 from 4352 from 4281;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
d. Sold DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Higher. 28005 from 27345 from 28310;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Vinda
d. Sold Meituan
e. Sold Alibaba
f. Sold HKEX
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3539 from 3524 from 3519;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3152 from 3131 from 3129;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 4Q 2021?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 28003 from 27940 from 28783;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1522 from 1521 from 1533;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold Berjaya Land
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 17 @ 1.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 110.09 from 110.10 last week from 111.02 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.1020 from 3.1023 from 3.0915;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7370 from 0.7485 from 0.7528;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR weaker. 1.1805 frrom 1.1876 from 1.1866;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7680 from 7.7674 from 7.7653;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2095 from 4.1918 from 4.1638;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3570 from 1.3512 from 1.3468;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.4792 from 6.4788 from 6.4724;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.3772 from 1.3913 from 1.3829;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.69 from 92.13 from 92.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.30% from 1.36% from 1.43%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.23% from 0.21% from 0.24%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 109.95 from 109.96 from 109.85;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.67 from 88.00 frpm 88.06;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3039 from 3300 from 3285; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:57 am
Transitory Inflation?
The Central Banksters have been talking about a "transitory inflation" to justify the current low interest rates.
At the same time, about US $5.5t will be dropped onto an already hot US economy. This will follow the US$3t emergency stimulus.
And the helicopter money is being dropped after the US economy has already recovered.
Under this scenario, do you really think that US Inflation will be "transitory"?
If it's not going to be transitory then what could be the outcome?
1. Asset Prices will probably continue to go up until the Fed acknowledges that there is a problem
2. That would probably bring us to the Mid-Term Elections in Nov 2022 (there is an incentive to spend until Nov 2022 to ensure a Democrat victory).
3. Thereafter, there could be a window of about a year to "slightly taper" before spending begins again, into the next US Presidential Election in Nov 2024
In view of the above, it would be quite difficult for the US economy to falter in the next two years, unless another Black Swan emerges eg. Covid19 Lamda variant.
And if it's not going to falter, it's very likely that inflation will be quite "hot". (Once a good or service has increased in price, it's very hard to lower the price anymore).
Therefore, it's very likely that Commodities and Equities, would be doing quite ok for the next year or two. However, there could be hiccups along the way and those dips would probably be buying opportunities.
As for next week, on July 31st, we have the expiration of the US Treasury Debt Limit. It's probably a non-event again. What else can they do but to extend it again?
Thereafter, we will have the new money from the new month of August. Therefore, some fund managers could be spending their existing Cash in advance late next week, on either Thursday or Friday.
So it's probably a "Trading Market" for a while more and I should behave accordingly.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 33% llast week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$72.17 from US$71.46 last week from US$74.63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy".
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1802 from US$1813 from US$1809;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell".
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.24 from US$25.71 from US$26.19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.46 from US$4.31 from US$4.34;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$33673 from US$31272 from US$33845 @ 12.20PM on Jul 24, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 32 from 23 from 37;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4412 from 4327 from 4352;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Neutral".
d. Sold DIDI Global; Uninvestable?
2. HK Equities - Lower. 27322 from 28005 from 27345;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought ASM Pacific; Results on July 27th
d. Sold Vinda; Higher Pulp Prices?
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3550 from 3539 from 3524;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3157 from 3152 from 3131;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27548 from 28003 from 27940;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1523 from 1522 from 1521;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Hartalega; EPF is selling though
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 23 @ 2.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.28 from 110.09 last week from 110.10 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1066 from 3.1020 from 3.1023;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7356 from 0.7370 from 0.7485;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1774 from 1.1805 frrom 1.1876;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7707 from 7.7680 from 7.7674;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2230 from 4.2095 from 4.1918;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3597 from 1.3570 from 1.3512;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
e. Converted some USD to SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4727 from 6.4792 from 6.4788;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.3754 from 1.3772 from 1.3913;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.87 from 92.69 from 92.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.29% from 1.30% from 1.36%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% from 0.23% from 0.21%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.67 from 109.95 from 109.96;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.78 from 87.67 from 88.00;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3103 from 3039 from 3300; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
The Central Banksters have been talking about a "transitory inflation" to justify the current low interest rates.
At the same time, about US $5.5t will be dropped onto an already hot US economy. This will follow the US$3t emergency stimulus.
And the helicopter money is being dropped after the US economy has already recovered.
Under this scenario, do you really think that US Inflation will be "transitory"?
If it's not going to be transitory then what could be the outcome?
1. Asset Prices will probably continue to go up until the Fed acknowledges that there is a problem
2. That would probably bring us to the Mid-Term Elections in Nov 2022 (there is an incentive to spend until Nov 2022 to ensure a Democrat victory).
3. Thereafter, there could be a window of about a year to "slightly taper" before spending begins again, into the next US Presidential Election in Nov 2024
In view of the above, it would be quite difficult for the US economy to falter in the next two years, unless another Black Swan emerges eg. Covid19 Lamda variant.
And if it's not going to falter, it's very likely that inflation will be quite "hot". (Once a good or service has increased in price, it's very hard to lower the price anymore).
Therefore, it's very likely that Commodities and Equities, would be doing quite ok for the next year or two. However, there could be hiccups along the way and those dips would probably be buying opportunities.
As for next week, on July 31st, we have the expiration of the US Treasury Debt Limit. It's probably a non-event again. What else can they do but to extend it again?
Thereafter, we will have the new money from the new month of August. Therefore, some fund managers could be spending their existing Cash in advance late next week, on either Thursday or Friday.
So it's probably a "Trading Market" for a while more and I should behave accordingly.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 33% llast week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$72.17 from US$71.46 last week from US$74.63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy".
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1802 from US$1813 from US$1809;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell".
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower. US$25.24 from US$25.71 from US$26.19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.46 from US$4.31 from US$4.34;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$33673 from US$31272 from US$33845 @ 12.20PM on Jul 24, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 32 from 23 from 37;
1. US Equities - Higher; 4412 from 4327 from 4352;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Neutral".
d. Sold DIDI Global; Uninvestable?
2. HK Equities - Lower. 27322 from 28005 from 27345;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought ASM Pacific; Results on July 27th
d. Sold Vinda; Higher Pulp Prices?
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3550 from 3539 from 3524;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3157 from 3152 from 3131;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27548 from 28003 from 27940;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1523 from 1522 from 1521;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Hartalega; EPF is selling though
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 23 @ 2.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.28 from 110.09 last week from 110.10 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1066 from 3.1020 from 3.1023;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7356 from 0.7370 from 0.7485;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1774 from 1.1805 frrom 1.1876;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7707 from 7.7680 from 7.7674;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2230 from 4.2095 from 4.1918;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3597 from 1.3570 from 1.3512;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
e. Converted some USD to SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4727 from 6.4792 from 6.4788;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.3754 from 1.3772 from 1.3913;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.87 from 92.69 from 92.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.29% from 1.30% from 1.36%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% from 0.23% from 0.21%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.67 from 109.95 from 109.96;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.78 from 87.67 from 88.00;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3103 from 3039 from 3300; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Aug 01, 2021 2:47 pm
TOL @ Aug 1, 2021
New Money From The New Month
It's a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, I think that it would be a "Trading Market" again.
If my counter does rally, I must force myself to take the profit.
If I dont, then it's likely that I will lose it. This is because there has not been much "follow-through" buying, for the past few months.
This is not a "Buy and Hold" market. This is a "Trading Market" and I need to remind myself that any small profits should be taken.
For the US Stocks, I'm watching the earning announcements. I'm on the look-out for fundamentally strong stocks whose results are temporary below expectations eg. AMZN, which dropped 7% on Friday.
For HK Stocks, I think that the Big Techs have fallen enough and it's time to trade them. Cathie Woods has supposedly finished the bulk of her selling and she does not have much China Big Techs left.
Anyway, according to the lastest EPFR report. the other US funds are now accumulating China stocks.
There could also be some positive movement from the current HK Earnings Announcements.
By the way, the Chinese State Media was also asking the people to buy the dips.
In addition, the CSRC had a late-night meeting with the investment bankers to assure them that they are "still open for business".
The Hang Seng Index was at about 31,000 in Feb 2021. It's now at around 26,000. That is a dropped of around 5000 points or about 16%. The RSI on the Hang Seng is now around 37 after hitting a low of 22.
In view of the above, I have increased my HK holdings. I now have Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, ASM Pacific, Smoore, Suzhou Basecare, China Overseas Land, Conch Cement, CICC, SJM, New Oriental Education, Sini Biopharm, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) and 2822 (A50 ETF).
As mentioned, I will probably take any small profits as I do not think that this is a "Buy and Hold" market.
For next week, the US Federal Eviction Moratorium would be expiring and it would be interesting to see the developments there. This would give one, a sense of how bad things are in the US.
While I'm "cautiously bullish" on the markets in view of the helicopter money being thrown around, I'm also keeping an eye on the Delta and Lambda variants.
I still think that the "rolling lockdowns" would continue until 1Q 2023 so I should remind myself not to be too Greedy, Complacent or Over-Confident.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (14 Counters)
c. US: 14% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 31% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73.72 from US$72.17 last week from US$71.46 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1812 from US$1802 from US$1813;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$25.55 from US$25.24 from US$25.71;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.48 from US$4.46 from US$4.31;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$41610 from US$33673 from US$31272 @ 4.20PM on Jul 31, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN may accept Bitcoin?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear: 24 from 32 from 23;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4395 from 4412 from 4327;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "StongBbuy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy".
d. Traded DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Lower. 25961 from 27322 from 28005;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought CICC
d. Bought A50 ETF (2822)
e. Bought New Oriental Education
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded Tencent
h. Traded Meituan
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3397 from 3550 from 3539;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. Bought A50 ETF (2822) listed in HK
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3167 from 3157 from 3152;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27284 from 27548 from 28003;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1495 from 1523 from 1522;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Day Traded a few Penny Stocks with mixed results. Not easy and you have to be very nimble.
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 31 @ 4.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.68 from 110.28 last week from 110.09 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1160 from 3.1066 from 3.1020;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7346 from 0.7356 from 0.7370;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. No more Australian Equities and Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1869 from 1.1774 from 1.1805;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7722 from 7.7707 from 7.7680;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2204 from 4.2230 from 4.2095;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3543 from 1.3597 from 1.3570;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4614 from 6.4727 from 6.4792;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Higher; 1.3904 from 1.3754 from 1.3772;
a. No more GBP Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.17 from 92.87 from 92.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.23% from 1.29% from 1.30%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.19% from 0.21% from 0.23%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.77 from 109.67 from 109.95;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.84 from 87.78 from 87.67;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3292 from 3103 from 3039; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics
New Money From The New Month
It's a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, I think that it would be a "Trading Market" again.
If my counter does rally, I must force myself to take the profit.
If I dont, then it's likely that I will lose it. This is because there has not been much "follow-through" buying, for the past few months.
This is not a "Buy and Hold" market. This is a "Trading Market" and I need to remind myself that any small profits should be taken.
For the US Stocks, I'm watching the earning announcements. I'm on the look-out for fundamentally strong stocks whose results are temporary below expectations eg. AMZN, which dropped 7% on Friday.
For HK Stocks, I think that the Big Techs have fallen enough and it's time to trade them. Cathie Woods has supposedly finished the bulk of her selling and she does not have much China Big Techs left.
Anyway, according to the lastest EPFR report. the other US funds are now accumulating China stocks.
There could also be some positive movement from the current HK Earnings Announcements.
By the way, the Chinese State Media was also asking the people to buy the dips.
In addition, the CSRC had a late-night meeting with the investment bankers to assure them that they are "still open for business".
The Hang Seng Index was at about 31,000 in Feb 2021. It's now at around 26,000. That is a dropped of around 5000 points or about 16%. The RSI on the Hang Seng is now around 37 after hitting a low of 22.
In view of the above, I have increased my HK holdings. I now have Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, ASM Pacific, Smoore, Suzhou Basecare, China Overseas Land, Conch Cement, CICC, SJM, New Oriental Education, Sini Biopharm, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) and 2822 (A50 ETF).
As mentioned, I will probably take any small profits as I do not think that this is a "Buy and Hold" market.
For next week, the US Federal Eviction Moratorium would be expiring and it would be interesting to see the developments there. This would give one, a sense of how bad things are in the US.
While I'm "cautiously bullish" on the markets in view of the helicopter money being thrown around, I'm also keeping an eye on the Delta and Lambda variants.
I still think that the "rolling lockdowns" would continue until 1Q 2023 so I should remind myself not to be too Greedy, Complacent or Over-Confident.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (14 Counters)
c. US: 14% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 31% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country
3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession
4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73.72 from US$72.17 last week from US$71.46 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1812 from US$1802 from US$1813;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher. US$25.55 from US$25.24 from US$25.71;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.48 from US$4.46 from US$4.31;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$41610 from US$33673 from US$31272 @ 4.20PM on Jul 31, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN may accept Bitcoin?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear: 24 from 32 from 23;
1. US Equities - Lower; 4395 from 4412 from 4327;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "StongBbuy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy".
d. Traded DIDI Global
2. HK Equities - Lower. 25961 from 27322 from 28005;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought CICC
d. Bought A50 ETF (2822)
e. Bought New Oriental Education
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded Tencent
h. Traded Meituan
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3397 from 3550 from 3539;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. Bought A50 ETF (2822) listed in HK
4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3167 from 3157 from 3152;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 27284 from 27548 from 28003;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade
6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1495 from 1523 from 1522;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Day Traded a few Penny Stocks with mixed results. Not easy and you have to be very nimble.
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 31 @ 4.30 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.68 from 110.28 last week from 110.09 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1160 from 3.1066 from 3.1020;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7346 from 0.7356 from 0.7370;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. No more Australian Equities and Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1869 from 1.1774 from 1.1805;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7722 from 7.7707 from 7.7680;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2204 from 4.2230 from 4.2095;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3543 from 1.3597 from 1.3570;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4614 from 6.4727 from 6.4792;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. GBP to USD:- GBP Higher; 1.3904 from 1.3754 from 1.3772;
a. No more GBP Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80
10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.17 from 92.87 from 92.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200
Others
Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.23% from 1.29% from 1.30%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.19% from 0.21% from 0.23%;
Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.77 from 109.67 from 109.95;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.84 from 87.78 from 87.67;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3292 from 3103 from 3039; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
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search.php?search_id=active_topics
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 111047
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
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