USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

Dollar falls as selling pressure builds on multiple fronts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKCN25E03I

[winston]

USD's reserve status at risk, warns Dalio

by Kevin Xu

While equities and gold benefited from the trillions of dollars in fiscal spending and monetary injections, those efforts are debasing the currency and have raised the possibility that the United States will go too far in testing the limits of government stimulus.

Dalio said in July that investors should favor stocks and gold over bonds and cash because the latter offer a negative rate of return and central banks will print more money.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... arns-Dalio

[behappyalways]

Dollar rises after Fed’s Evans comments on quantitative easing
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/forex-m ... virus.html

[winston]

The Bear Market No One’s Paying Attention To

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

One of the best ways to profit from a falling dollar is emerging market stocks.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/09/23/ ... ention-to/

[winston]

Economist Stephen Roach renews greenback crash warning

The worsening current account deficit in the United States does not bode well for the currency, a leading economist says.

US economist Stephen Roach warns next year will be brutal for the dollar, CNBC reports.

Not only does he see growing odds of a double-dip recession, the Yale University senior fellow believes his “seemingly crazed idea” that the dollar would crash should not be so crazy anymore.

“The current account deficit in the United States, which is the broadest measure of our international imbalance with the rest of the world, suffered a record deterioration in the second quarter,” he said.

“The so-called net-national savings rate, which is the sum of savings of individuals, businesses and the government sector, also recorded a record decline in the second quarter going back into negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis.”

Right now, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 94. When Roach predicted on “Trading Nation” last June the index would plunge by 35 percent, it was trading around 96.

At the time, Roach estimated it would happen in the next year or two, maybe more. But now, he sees it happening by the end of 2021.

“Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, we run these current account deficits to borrow surplus saving, and that always pushes the currencies lower,” he said. “The dollar is not immune to that time honored adjustment.”

He puts the probability of a U.S. double-dip recession above 50 percent.

“As we head into flu season with the new infection rates moving back up again with mortality unacceptably high, the risk of an aftershock is not something you can dismiss,” Roach said.

“The record of history suggests that this is not a time unlike what the frothy markets are doing to bet that this is different.”

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... sh-warning

[winston]

Why the US dollar is only going to fall faster and harder

Given the unprecedented erosion of domestic savings, an explosive current account deficit, and the Fed determined to keep rates flat, expect the dollar to plunge by as much as 35 per cent next year

by Stephen Roach

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... and-harder

[behappyalways]

2020.09.27【文茜世界財經周報】Fed資產負債破表　財政赤字達3.3兆美元
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGTYCuhMJog

[winston]

US dollar facing 'significant depreciation'

“You have the twin deficits in the U.S. getting worse, you have the trade balance at the worst in 15 years”.

A victory for former Vice President Joe Biden would mean any dollar depreciation is set to be “very clear and very pronounced.”

If President Donald Trump is reelected, Robertsen said it will be “a little bit more messy in the short term”.

The outperformance of U.S. assets has been a “big driver” of dollar appreciation over the last 10 years, with the S&P 500 beating the MSCI Emerging Markets equity index by 100 percentage points in that period.

“If you were to see a reversal of that — either because of global trade or a change in the United States’ domestic economic agenda — and combined with the fact that the U.S. no longer has an interest rate advantage over its G-10 peers, I think you can make a very compelling case for a multi-year dollar depreciation”.

Stephen Roach told CNBC that conditions are ripe for a sharp weakening in the greenback in the coming year, as he forecast a 35 percent decline of the U.S. dollar decline by the end of 2021.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... reciation'

[behappyalways]

BlackRock shorts US dollar for Asian currencies regardless of Trump or Biden win
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/u ... -biden-win

[winston]

Morgan Stanley looks out for US dollar rebound

by Winnie Lee

"It's no longer attractive to be positioned for a weaker dollar from here given the uncertainties around the fiscal policy outlook, the monetary policy outlook and the growth in inflation outlook".

The US dollar had fallen as much as 14 percent from last year's peak in the first quarter as the coronavirus wreaked havoc, with many forecasters turning more bearish on the US currency toward the end of last year.

However, Roach sees another 15-20 percent downside to the dollar index as the market is placing too much emphasis on the Federal Reserve holding rates at zero to prevent another recession.

He said it was hard for the US economy to stage a V-shaped recovery and expects a larger deficit and euro strength.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ar-rebound