US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 06 (Oct 16 - Jul 22)

[behappyalways]

U.S. job growth decelerates in July, casts shadow on recovery's strength
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN2530EG

[behappyalways]

2020.09.06【文茜世界財經周報】巴菲特為何相中日股？　引發看空美股揣測
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKj2Rs1Xqeg

[winston]

US economy sank by 32.4pc in second quarter, revised data show

The U.S. economy plunged at a record rate in the spring but is poised to swing to a record increase in the quarter that is just ending.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, fell at a rate of 31.4 percent in the April-June quarter, only slightly changed from the 31.7 percent drop estimated one month ago.

The new report, the government’s last look at the second quarter, showed a decline that was more than three times larger than the previous record-holder, a fall of 10 percent in the first quarter of 1958 when Dwight Eisenhower was president.

Economists believe the economy will expand at an annual rate of 30 percent in the current quarter as businesses have re-opened and millions of people have gone back to work. That would shatter the old record for a quarterly GDP increase, a 16.7 percent surge in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman was president.

The government will not release its July-September GDP report until October 29, just five days before the presidential election.

While President Donald Trump is counting on an economic rebound to convince voters to give him a second term, economists said any such bounce back this year is a longshot.

Economists are forecasting that growth will slow significantly in the final three months of this year to a rate of around 4 percent and could actually topple back into a recession if Congress fails to pass another stimulus measure or if there is a resurgence of the virus. There are upticks in infections occurring right now in some regions of the country, including New York.

So far this year, the economy fell at a 5 percent rate in the first quarter, signaling an end to a nearly 11-year-long economic expansion, the longest in U.S. history. That drop was followed by the second quarter decline of 31.4 percent, which was initially estimated two months ago as a drop of 32.9 percent, and then revised to 31.7 percent last month.

The slight upward revision in this report reflected less of a plunge in consumer spending than had been estimated. It was still a record fall at a rate of 33.2 percent, but last month projections were for a decline of 34.1 percent. This improvement was offset somewhat by downward revisions to exports and to business investment.

Source: AP

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... -data-show

[winston]

Top US Food Bank Warns Of Nationwide "Meal Shortages" In Next 12 Months

by Tyler Durden

Tens of millions of Americans have turned to their local food banks as food insecurity spirals out of control.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey from late August, about 10% of adults, 22.3 million, reported they didn't have enough to eat or lacked food.

This figure is up from 18 million in early March.

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/top ... -12-months

[winston]

Nearly 200 Big US Listed Firms Turn Into Zombies with US$1.36T Debt: Findings

Nearly 200 of the 3,000 biggest U.S. listed companies have transformed into zombie firms since the Covid outbreak, meaning they are unable to cover interest expenses on debt with profits, according to Bloomberg's findings.

These zombies saw their debt snowballing by almost US$1 trillion to US$1.36 trillion, far above the US$500-billion debt at the peak of the financial crisis.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Americans fret as time runs out on aid

The biggest blow will likely come from the end of two federal unemployment-insurance programs, with roughly 12 million people facing a late December cutoff.

Measures that froze student-loan payments, offered mortgage forbearance and halted evictions have a year-end deadline -- and so do Federal Reserve lending facilities for small businesses and local governments.

US goods exports to China contracted 11.4 percent in 2019 to US$104.8 billion (HK$817.44 billion) after contracting by more than 7 percent the year prior.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... out-on-aid

[behappyalways]

America’s zombie companies have racked up US$1.4 tril of debt
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -tril-debt

[behappyalways]

Even without the covid, the US economy was already slowing down with Feds cutting interest rates. Now with covid permanently scarring the businesses esp the small businesses(24% of the small businesses have closed down if I remember correctly), I doubt the economy would bounce back strongly even if the vaccine works as effectively as reported

Five worrying takeaways from Friday's U.S. jobs report
https://www.reuters.com/article/busines ... SKBN28E333

Economists predict high likelihood of 2020 year end recession in US

Consumer spending, which accounted for almost all U.S. economic growth from July through September, is expected to grow a healthy 2.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2020.

The business economists in the US expect economic growth to decelerate this year and next but for the economy to avoid stumbling into recession, extending a record-breaking expansion already in its 11th year.

The latest survey by 53 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows that they expect economic growth to slow from 2.9 percent last year to 2.3 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020. The forecasts are unchanged from the association’s previous survey in October.

The economists put the odds of a recession starting at 5 percent this year, 21 percent in the first half of 2020 and 43 percent by the end of next year.

However, they peg the odds of a recession by mid-2021 at 66 percent.

The American economy is likely to remain resilient this year and next, they say, despite risks arising from President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and skirmishes with other U.S. trading partners:

Half the respondents call trade tensions the No. 1 downside economic risk through the end of next year.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the short-term interest rate it controls three times this year. The cuts are meant in part to offset economic damage from Trump’s trade wars, which have raised uncertainty for businesses and contributed to a drop in business investment in the April-June and July-September quarters.

The vast majority of business economists — 94 percent — do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. But they are divided over what the central bank will do next year.

The economists expect American consumers to continue driving the economy. Consumer spending, which accounted for almost all U.S. economic growth from July through September, is expected to grow a healthy 2.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2020.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... 1210&sid=2

[behappyalways]

Shoplifting Spikes In U.S. Amid Increasing Desperation As Pandemic Drags On
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... gs-on/amp/

[behappyalways]

Hunger spikes, demand rises for US food banks
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55307722