US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 06 (Oct 16 - Jul 22)

[winston]

Too many investors are failing to grasp that the coronavirus recession may be longer and tougher

By Satyajit Das

Financial markets and regulators are flying blind and our ‘black hole illusion’ will cost us

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were- ... yptr=yahoo

[behappyalways]

No Income. Major Medical Bills. What Life Is Like for Millions of Americans Facing Financial Ruin Because of the Pandemic
https://time.com/5833008/us-unemployment-coronavirus/

[winston]

US Reopening

As of today, 34 states have opened up, the earliest of which were 18 days ago.

And despite an increase in the rate of testing, the daily new cases across the country have been steady (at worst), if not declining.

Source: Forbes

[behappyalways]

2020.05.17【文茜世界財經周報】美聯準彈藥用盡　鮑威爾罕見呼籲財政刺激
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LSX-02QD08

[behappyalways]

Fed’s Rosengren sees unemployment rate still at double-digit levels at end of this year
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds- ... ck_seemore

[behappyalways]

2020.05.24【文茜世界財經周報】　美5月恐逾千萬失業　鮑威爾示警2021下半復甦
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxNWNBCy1-Q

[behappyalways]

2020.05.31【文茜世界財經周報】復工後經濟便有望復甦？美就業市場真實樣貌
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqPx8hnFI1o

[winston]

One quarter of small businesses and two-fifths of restaurants have closed.

Some 1 in 4 American workers is out of a job.

At least 40 million people have filed for unemployment.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

Funny Statistics?

America’s labor market defied forecasts, with payrolls rising by 2.5 million in May, according to numbers provided by the Trump administration.

In April, 20.7 million jobs were lost, the largest drop going back to 1939.

While the overall grim picture improved slightly, there are still major caveats: a stunning 21 million Americans remain unemployed, with a jobless rate higher than at any time since 1940.

And the return to work is uneven, with unemployment jumping among African Americans to 16.8%, the highest it’s been since 1984.

Source: Bloomberg

[behappyalways]

Economists said the government’s Paycheck Protection Program, part of a historic fiscal package worth nearly $3 trillion, offering businesses loans that can be partially forgiven if used for employee salaries, artificially juiced employment. They noted many sectors added jobs in May, though businesses remained shut.
“Once the PPP money runs out, there could be another round of layoffs especially in services which was a big beneficiary of the government program,” said Sung Won Sohn, a business economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.


U.S. labor market unexpectedly improves; recovery years away
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN23C0E9


May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/jobs-re ... -2020.html