HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Jun 24)

[winston]

CLSA warns of 20pc drop in property prices

by Stella Zhai

Hong Kong property prices are expected to decline by 20 percent in the next 12 months with weakening demand under headwinds from the trade war and the social turmoil, says CLSA.

Its recent report titled with "No Takers", warns that the downturn in the property market will accelerate this quarter.

It forecasts the real estate sector will see decreases in all the market segments a year later, which will be the first time since the SARS outbreak in 2003, with retail home prices dropping 25 percent and grade-A office rents down 20 percent.

Home prices have retreated by 5 percent compared with two months ago, said CLSA, adding that the government's stimulus measures could only slow the decline but not stop it.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 1106&sid=2

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>DBS Research: HK Developer Valuations Close to Historical Low; Top Pick SHK PPT

Despite ongoing social unrest, the government's mortgage easing policy reignited buying demand and improved home market sentiment, mentioned DBS Group Research in its report.

Developers have seized the opportunity to either roll out new projects or speed up sales of completed inventories.

Hong Kong developers are roughly trading at a 52% discount to current NAV forecasts, close to the historical low.

With signs of home price stabilization, the broker envisaged more developers to start launching new projects once the social unrest dwindles. SHK PPT (00016.HK) is the top pick for the sector.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Hong Kong’s property buyers return, setting aside political concerns

The brisk sales, following a sell-out launch last weekend, shows how Hong Kong’s underlying property demand remains strong, lifted by a record wave of easy financing even as the city’s economy is mired in its worst recession on record, and joblessness is expected to climb.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... c827&tc=17

[behappyalways]

Tiny 290sq ft temporary housing a welcome upgrade for some low-income Hong Kong families
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tTdK4pjfivE

[winston]

Cushman & Wakefield: HK Home Mkt May Stabilize in 2Q21 Soonest on Effective Vaccine Launch

The local residential market will remain subdued for the rest of 2020 and even in 1Q21, likely turning steady as early as in 2Q21, depending on the Covid pandemic situation and vaccine launch, opined Alva To, Vice President and Head of Consulting for Greater China at Cushman & Wakefield.

He maintained the forecast for a 10% home price slide in the year.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

33,000 new flats forecast next year

About 33,000 new flats could be launched next year, a real estate agency executive says.

Sammy Po Siu-ming, chief executive of Midland Realty said developers are not aggressive in launching new flats next year.

The number of registrations of secondary units next year will hit a nine-year high of 50,000, Midland estimates.

The total value of secondary units next year will hit an 11-year high of HK$420 billion.

The property price this year fell by just 0.3 percent despite the pandemic. This compared with a drop of 12 percent in the 2008 financial tsunami.

Sales of new flats fell in amount and number.

Transactions of new untis is estimated to be down by 21.9 percent to 14,500. The total amount of new unit sales is estimated to fall by 19.4 percent to HK$162 billion.

The number of newly-launched flats fell by 28.2 percent to 13,146.

But deals of secondary flats worth HK$6-HK$10 million outperformed. Registrations of secondary flats surged by 42.7 percent to 18,588. Secondary flats worth HK$20 million fell the most, with a drop of 15.7 percent year-on-year.

Registrations of secondary units is estimated to rise by 13.9 percent this year to 47,000. Sales of such units is estimated to rise by 14.1 percent to HK$377 billion.

Midland Realty said the government should relax the mortgage cap for residential property worth over HK$10 million to 70 percent.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... -next-year

[winston]

Hong Kong’s worst recession on record points to bleak outlook in 2021 for residential property and commercial real estate prices

Mass market and luxury home prices are expected to drop between 5 and 10 per cent in 2021 on lower transaction volumes, say analysts

The pandemic will affect the uptake of grade A offices, with Cushman & Wakefield predicting rents to fall between 11 and 16 per cent this year

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... esidential

[winston]

Hong Kong emigration may trigger $19bn of home sales

An estimated 13,100 to 16,300 households will move to the UK via their British National (Overseas) visas in 2021.

The number represents 0.9% to 1.1% of households living in privately owned homes.

Property listings at Centaline, Hong Kong's largest real estate agency, surged by 44% from a year earlier to more than 40,000 homes.

More than 35,000 eligible Hong Kongers have applied for the British National (Overseas) visas program, The Times reported earlier this month.

https://www.internationalinvestment.net ... home-sales

Source: International Investment

[winston]

Commentary: Why Hong Kong property defies gloomy forecasts

Investors should take note of Hong Kong developers, says the Financial Times’ June Yoon.

While rents have dropped, Hong Kong’s April property deals by value more than doubled, according to Land Registry data.

In the secondary market, home prices are on track to hit a 23-year high, according to estimates by property agency Centaline.

Average home prices are just 2 per cent shy of historical highs.

There is constant demand from the type of buyer for whom price does not matter. Supply has always been limited. None of that has changed.

The territory was the world’s most expensive property market last year, with an average home price of US$1.2 million, or US$1,987 per sq ft, more than double that of London.

Moreover, its prime residential property provides one of the lowest rental yields globally, at 1.8 per cent. That compares with the average in London of 3.8 per cent yield at the end of last year.

Residential property purchases in Hong Kong by mainland Chinese buyers rose 40 per cent in the first two months of this year.

“At current rates, housing prices should rise by up to 15 per cent this year".

Source: CNA

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/co ... n-14793606

[behappyalways]

Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices hit new high as economy rebounds from social unrest, coronavirus, according to Centaline Property index
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... ial-unrest