Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Jun 23)

[winston]

3 Charts to Watch If You’re Concerned About the Next Bear Market

These three charts will help investors time the end of this bull market

1. The 10-2 Treasury Spread
2. Corporate Net Debt to GDP
3. U.S. Real GDP Growth Trend

Source: Investor Place

https://investorplace.com/2018/11/3-cha ... h=nonbuyer

[winston]

Corporate "credit spreads" – the difference in yield between corporate bonds and "risk free" U.S. Treasury notes – are widening again...

[winston]

Markets face headwinds as bonds may be the weather vane

by Ivan Tong

Premier Li Keqiang has admitted that China's economy is facing new downward pressures at the end of China's "two sessions" late last week.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has confirmed it is now impossible for President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump to finalize a deal by March, with their proposed summit likely to be pushed back to mid-year.

The 10-year treasury yield dropped to 2.591 percent on Friday, hitting a low for this year on the dovish attitude of Fed chairman Jerome Powell and a worsening of economic indicators.

I believe the bond market is much more reflective of economic development trends than the stock market. If more investors buy long-term treasury bonds, it means the market's need for hedging is high.

History tells us that bond investors are more savvy than stock market investors.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0318&sid=2

[winston]

If you want to frighthen yourself:-

South Korea’s GDP miss was a bad one.

The Shanghai Composite fell 2.4%, bringing its week-to-date performance to negative 4.5%.

Sweden’s Riksbank surprised the market by how dovish it was.

The euro made a new low for the year versus the dollar, with the upcoming set of European elections looming larger as the German manufacturing slump continues.

Argentine credit default swaps have blown out.

Emerging market equities and currencies are in a rough patch.

The Japanese yen rose despite BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talking about downside risks to prices and the need to strengthen forward guidance.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

5 Numbers to Watch to Spot the Next Recession

by Jen Wieczner

1. The Yield Curve; When low rates augur bad news
2. Auto Loans; America’s other subprime problem
3. China’s Consumers; Forget GDP—keep an eye on retailers and tourists
4. Corporate Debt; How much borrowing is too much?
5. Corporate Profits; As workers get more, shareholders could get less

Source: Fortune

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-number ... 23147.html

[winston]

A ‘Scary’ List Of 19 Facts About Our Current Economic Performance

Source: TTR

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2019/05 ... rformance/

[winston]

Citi: These are 'the two scariest charts' on the economy right now

by Emily McCormick

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-two ... 09882.html

[winston]

The Rich World’s Canaries Are Starting to Look Sickly

Ripples from Australia and New Zealand are often among the earliest signs of trouble for the northern hemisphere.

By David Fickling

Thanks to their small, trade-dependent economies and open capital markets, ripples from Australia and New Zealand are often some of the earliest signs of trouble emerging in major northern hemisphere countries.

New Zealand’s 10-year government bond rate dropped to a record low of 1.719% Wednesday morning.

Just a few minutes later, Australia’s 10-year yield slipped below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target for the first time since 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... aretheview

[winston]

Two Big Warning Sirens Are Signaling a Severe Downturn

2 WARNING SIGNALS FROM SHARP DIVERGENCE IN OIL AND GOLD PRICES

2019: Oil has fallen more than 8.7% as gold has soared more than 5.2% in same week;

3 previous instances were during bear markets and recessions;

2 most famous events were 2000-2001 tech crash and 2008 financial crisis.

Source: Investopedia

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b166b8f4-d9 ... s-are.html

[winston]

4 REASONS THE RALLY MAY MELT DOWN

BY MATTHEW JOHNSTON

1. Defensive stocks leading the market's rise
2. Fed dovishness feeding a complacent herd mentality
3. Volatility “fear gauge” on the rise
4. Forecasts of weaker earnings growth in 2020

Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/why-the-s- ... yptr=yahoo