Thai Beverage

[behappyalways]

thai-beverage-acquires-grand-royal-distilleries-myanmar-1-bil
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thai-b ... nmar-1-bil

[winston]

not vested

ThaiBev: FY2017 net profit rose 39% YoY to 34.7 billion baht (S$1.4 billion) on the back of higher profits for spirits and food, as well as contribution from stakes in Fraser & Neave (F&N) and Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL).

Profit was also helped by the decrease in net loss of its non-alcoholic beverage business.

Core net profit excluding an 8.5 billion baht fair valuation gains on financial assets would have risen by 5% to 26.2 billion baht.

The company had changed its fiscal year-end to Sep 30 from Dec 31.

It is paying a final dividend of 0.47 baht for the 12 months ended Sep 30 compared to 0.40 baht for the nine months ended Sep 30, 2016.

ThaiBev’s share price may react positively to the full-year earnings beat.

Consensus has a fair value of S$1.06, implying a 13% upside.

It is currently offering a dividend yield of 3.3 – 3.8% dividend yield over the next three years.

ThaiBev is a good proxy for the domestic consumption recovery in Thailand after the slowdown in consumption during the mourning period for the late Thai King.

Key events in the fourth quarter may see trigger events that could bring funds back into the Thailand market.

Source: KGI

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev reports 62% fall in 1Q earnings to $122 mil on one-off acquisition expenses
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thaibe ... n-expenses

[winston]

not vested

Thai Beverage PCL (ThaiBev)
Achieving Vision 2020 by expanding into Vietnam

ThaiBev has recently won the bid to take over 53.6 percent of Sabeco Brewery, Vietnam’s largest brewer, in its attempt to expand its market share in Southeast Asia.

The acquisition is a bold move given that Sabeco’s stock has appreciated by 56 percent in 2017, causing other global companies such as Anheuser-Busch InBev NV and Asahi Group Holdings Ltd to stay off from acquiring the firm, according to Bloomberg’s report.

The main reason for the acquisition is to build towards ThaiBev’s goal of becoming a leader in Southeast Asia, which was stated in its strategy “Vision 2020”.

ThaiBev will be indirectly owning Sabeco through Vietnam Beverage, and ThaiBev will be paying for the entire acquisition cost of about US$4.8 billion through the extension of a shareholder loan to Vietnam Beverage.

Net Gearing for the company will see a sharp increase as ThaiBev will be funding the acquisition through borrowing about US$3 billion from five loan facilities and a US$2 billion loan secured by its wholly-owned subsidiary, BeerCO. The increase will be significant as net gearing is expected to surge from 0.2 times to 1.3 times.

The significant changes in net gearing level have resulted in “both Fitch and Moody placing ThaiBev under review for possible downgrades to its credit ratings” according to OCBC analysts.

The uncertainty in credit risk implies a likely volatile stock price in the near future.

However, for investors who are able to hold on to the stock for the long term, the latest development can be seen as exciting expansion news for the firm.

ThaiBev is likely to see growth coming from the expanding Vietnam market while reducing its dependence on the Thai market for revenue.

OCBC analysts are “positive over the long-term growth of ThaiBev” especially so since consumption in Thailand is likely to rise due to the end of the mourning period in the country.

OCBC maintains its Buy call on the stock with a fair value estimate of $1.07.

Source: Share Investor

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev reports 3.2% fall in 2Q earnings to $264 mil
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thaibe ... gs-264-mil

[winston]

not vested

Thai Beverage PCL (ThaiBev)

Achieving Vision 2020 by expanding into Vietnam

ThaiBev has recently won the bid to take over 53.6 percent of Sabeco Brewery, Vietnam’s largest brewer, in its attempt to expand its market share in Southeast Asia.

The acquisition is a bold move given that Sabeco’s stock has appreciated by 56 percent in 2017, causing other global companies such as Anheuser-Busch InBev NV and Asahi Group Holdings Ltd to stay off from acquiring the firm, according to Bloomberg’s report.

The main reason for the acquisition is to build towards ThaiBev’s goal of becoming a leader in Southeast Asia, which was stated in its strategy “Vision 2020”.

ThaiBev will be indirectly owning Sabeco through Vietnam Beverage, and ThaiBev will be paying for the entire acquisition cost of about US$4.8 billion through the extension of a shareholder loan to Vietnam Beverage.

Net Gearing for the company will see a sharp increase as ThaiBev will be funding the acquisition through borrowing about US$3 billion from five loan facilities and a US$2 billion loan secured by its wholly-owned subsidiary, BeerCO. The increase will be significant as net gearing is expected to surge from 0.2 times to 1.3 times.

The significant changes in net gearing level have resulted in “both Fitch and Moody placing ThaiBev under review for possible downgrades to its credit ratings” according to OCBC analysts.

The uncertainty in credit risk implies a likely volatile stock price in the near future.

However, for investors who are able to hold on to the stock for the long term, the latest development can be seen as exciting expansion news for the firm. ThaiBev is likely to see growth coming from the expanding Vietnam market while reducing its dependence on the Thai market for revenue.

OCBC analysts are “positive over the long-term growth of ThaiBev” especially so since consumption in Thailand is likely to rise due to the end of the mourning period in the country.

OCBC maintains its Buy call on the stock with a fair value estimate of $1.07.

Source: Shares Investment

[winston]

not vested

Thai Beverage (Thaibev)

Thaibev is in the midst of transforming into a truly regional beverage play post acquisition of Myanmar’s Grand Royal and 26.3 percent of Vietnam’s SABECO. According to CIMB’s analysis, these deals could provide longer-term upsides.

Having fallen from a peak of $0.94 this year, CIMB thinks that downside risks to investing in Thaibev is limited.

Its current 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 16.5 times implies that it is trading at close to 1 standard deviation below its 5-year average mean.

This was during the time when Thaibev only had net profits in the region of THB4.2 to THB5.9 billion per quarter. However, Thaibev has since expanded and its current quarterly net profit is THB 6.3 billion.

CIMB notes that Thaibev has a few catalysts in place to drive its share price. The World Cup celebrations in 3Q18 and the coronation of the new king in FY19F could revitalise Thaibev’s domestic alcohol sales volumes.

It also has some financial ammunition from the potential corporate restructuring of F&N and Frasers Centrepoint as well as further inorganic growth in its food business.

BUY, TP $0.98

Source: Shares Investment

[behappyalways]

Thai Beverage reports 61% fall in 3Q earnings to $248 mil on weak spirits sales and absence of fair value gains
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thai-b ... gs-248-mil

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev’s ops performance to pick up in FY19; issues debentures
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thaibe ... debentures

[winston]

not vested

Oct 23, 2017

Thai Beverage: Since 2016, beer consumption in Thailand has been affected by the mourning period and excise tax but we expect beer consumption to rebound soon due to improvements in wage growth and the steep rise in the Thailand’s consumer confidence index to a 3-year high in July 2018.

We expect beer consumption to rebound in the coming quarter and efficient marketing strategies to continue capturing market share for the company.

Based on these trends, we continue to maintain a BUY with a SOTP derived target price of $0.75.

Source: KGI