by ishak » Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:17 pm
Tue, 19 Aug 2008, 11:12:39 SGT
By Lee Wen Ching
Singapore’s efforts to encourage business ties with Russia serve as an endorsement of Russia’s bountiful investment opportunities and flourishing economy. Indeed, emerging markets such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are expected to outpace the global economic growth in the coming years. Food Empire Holdings (FEH) is in the sweet spot of all the action – it manufactures and markets instant beverages and snacks to over 65 countries with a strong focus on emerging markets such as Russia. Having established its presence in these countries, it is poised to benefit from their growing F&B markets. We forecast earnings to grow by 11% in FY08 and 9% in FY09. We initiate coverage on FEH with a BUY rating and S$0.65 fair value estimate based on 10x blended FY08/09 PER.
Flourishing opportunities from emerging countries. Singapore’s efforts to encourage business ties with Russia serve as an endorsement of Russia’s bountiful investment opportunities and flourishing economy. Indeed, emerging markets such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are expected to post real GDP growth of 7.3% to 8.5%, outpacing the world average of 5.2%, according to official statistics from the Central Intelligence Agency.
Exposure to a diverse portfolio of emerging markets. Food Empire Holdings (FEH) is in the sweet spot of all the action. It manufactures and markets instant beverages and snacks to over 65 countries, and it offers a unique value proposition by virtue of its target market – a divesification across several emerging economies, with Russia being its largest market. Having established its presence and secured its foothold, FEH is poised to leverage on increasing disposable incomes and growing consumer spending among these nations, including Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
On top of good track record, recent acquisition an earnings booster. FEH has been posting double-digit earnings growth for the past two years, and has maintained a healthy gross profit margin despite recent escalations in commodity prices. We expect earnings to get a boost from its acquisition of Petrovskaya – a household instant coffee mix brand that commands 22% market share in Ukraine – which will contribute meaningfully to earnings from FY08. Brand acquisitions are the quickest way to gain market share as coffee products tend to carry some “stickiness†in terms of brand loyalty. With this acquisition, FEH will capture a new target market and expand its market share.
Investment risks. FEH’s key investment risks include the threat of continued escalations in commodities prices which could lead to margin pressures, regulatory and political risks relating to global markets, forex risks, as well as a potential shift of consumers’ preference towards upscale coffee alternatives (such as Starbucks) along with growing affluence. Nevertheless, it offers investors an opportunity to leverage on growing consumption in emerging economies such as Russia, which is unique among locally listed stocks. We forecast earnings to grow by 11% in FY08 and 9% in FY09. We initiate coverage on FEH with a BUY rating and S$0.65 fair value estimate based on 10x blended FY08/09 PER.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
- Albert Einstein