USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Why dollar bulls are thinking about shifting their outlooks

by Anora Mahmudova

“Our bullish outlook for the dollar at the beginning of the year was predicated on continued economic growth, tighter monetary policy and possible fiscal measures that would accelerate growth.

But due to recent softness in economic data and political turmoil in Washington we are considering scaling back the magnitude of our bullish call”
[

The sharpest move so far this year has been against the euro (XTUP:EURUSD) , with the dollar weakening by nearly 6% year to date, while the yen (XTUP:USDJPY) rallied nearly 5% against the greenback over the same period.

“Our best-case scenario is for the scandals to blow over and for the [Trump] administration to have a successful foreign trip.

Our worst-case scenario is for the White House scandals to implode to the extent they start hurting the real economy, either due to lower hiring or lower business investment,”

Source: Market Watch

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-doll ... 24481.html

[winston]

Chart of the day: Back in the band

by Nicole Elliott

The US dollar index is now weaker than when Donald Trump was elected in November 2015.

It would appear that his erratic behaviour is taking its toll on the currency and Treasury bond markets, where yields are also back down close to where they were late last year.

In other words, the move higher in both of these was a false break or extension to a trend that started last summer; we are now back inside a well established range.

Interestingly futures volume on the dollar index has dipped as hopes for further US dollar strength fade, yet open interest has risen slightly suggesting new hedging strategies are being adopted.

Expect consolidation mid-range at 96.50, then falling to 93.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... -back-band

[winston]

China’s next step to destroy the dollar

by Byron King

If Saudi begins accepting yuan for oil, all bets are off on the petrodollar.

Yuan-for-oil will entirely change the monetary dynamics of global energy flows.

I expect the U.S. dollar to weaken severely when that news breaks.

Source: Rckards’ Gold Speculator

http://thecrux.com/chinas-next-step-to- ... he-dollar/

[winston]

What to do about the falling dollar

by Ben Morris

The U.S. dollar is down 7% since the start of the year.

Last week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said that the European economy is improving…

A falling dollar supports hard-asset prices, too… like gold.

Source: Daily Wealth Trader

http://thecrux.com/what-to-do-about-the-falling-dollar/

[winston]

US Dollar Reaching Exhaustion Point?

By Richard A. Cox

Source: GuruFocus

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/07 ... ion-point/

[winston]

US Dollar Declines Continue

By Richard A. Cox

Source: Guru Focus

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/07 ... -continue/

[winston]

Where to put your money now that the dollar is sinking

1: A global recovery is bidding up the value of other currencies
2: Foreign bonds are becoming more attractive
3: U.S. inflation will heat up

What to buy now:
1. Buy commodities
2. Go foreign: Emerging markets tend to perform well when commodity prices rise.
3. Be cautious with bonds and yield plays
4. Get long energy
5. Go with small-caps

Source: MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/where- ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

This 'ugly' chart is about to get even uglier: Trader

by Rebecca Ungarino

Look to 92.5, 93 for support in the near term."

Source: CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/24/this-cha ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

Political drama is weighing on the U.S. dollar

The dollar has comes under pressure from lackluster economic data, which weakened the case for higher interest rates in the U.S. as central banks elsewhere move to tighten.

And Trump, on more than one occasion, has talked about wanting a weaker dollar and complained that its strength is a negative for U.S. manufacturing — a key part of his “America First” agenda.

Hedge funds are piling into bearish bets on the dollar, and now have the biggest net short position in four years. The median year-end forecast for the greenback has fallen to $1.14 per euro, the lowest since 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

http://thecrux.com/political-drama-is-h ... llar-hard/

[winston]

If the U.S. Dollar Remains Weak, Bet on These Stocks and ETFs

1. ETFs to Bet On: PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)
2. ETFs to Bet On: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Source: Zacks Investment Research

http://investorplace.com/2017/08/if-us- ... Yah3oh96M8