India Imposes 20% Sugar Export Duty to Keep Local Price in Check
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-in-check
The price of raw sugar has spiked by over 50% since February 2016, and resumed its uptrend in December 2016 to trade at about 20.6 US cents per lb at the end of January 2017 - which is 13.2% higher than the average sugar price of 18.2 US cents per lb last year.
A report by Alliance DBS Research states that raw sugar prices will remain elevated due to the global supply deficit which is estimated to hit five million tonnes this year due to drought affecting sugar production in India, Thailand and Brazil.
While most analysts forecast supplies will exceed demand in the 2017-2018 season that starts in October for most countries, stockpiles will remain at historically low levels, “affording little latitude for under-performance in the major sugar producing countries”
With more than eight months to go, a lot could still go wrong to wipe out the 1 million to 3 million tonne surplus range
From the return of El Nino to the continuation of Indian imports and even the policies of US President Donald Trump
1. “The models are suggesting that El Nino may resurface in the second half of 2017”
2. Bears are counting on the rebound of production in Asia. But the scale of the recovery in India is still uncertain
3. Traders attending the conference fear that Mexico may end up with a lot more sugar than expected. That’s because President Trump is seeking a review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which allows Mexican sugar to flow into the US.
4. Traders are counting on a rebound in European Union production as a system of quotas end on Sept 30. Kingsman sees output rising 14% to 19.3 million tonnes.
5. China already surprised traders last year, bringing in 3.7 million tonne of white sugar, he said.
6. In Brazil, the currency in the world’s largest producer is getting stronger, potentially reducing the incentive for millers to sell, and raising the price level at which they favour ethanol over sugar production.
The real gained 22% last year, the most since 2009, and has advanced another 4.4% this year.
The cancellations marked the latest dispute of a years-long trade row between Mexico - the U.S.' top foreign supplier of sugar - and the United States at a time when cane refiners are struggling with prices and tight supplies, U.S. industry sources said.
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The new regime, designed to narrow the gap between sugar prices at home and abroad, could take a heavy toll on overseas growers, particularly Brazil and Thailand, which have fuelled an exponential growth in China’s sugar imports over the last six years.
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