Property outlook seen cautious but not bleak
BY EUGENE MAHALINGAM
Demand for affordable housing will support industry, say industry players
Source: The Star
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... not-bleak/
Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Minister Noh Omar on Monday (March 13) said a study has been conducted on the matter, and the federal government could consider two options — either to raise the floor price of RM1 million (S$318,187) per property, or switch the currency for the floor price from ringgit to US dollar, for all foreign property buyers.
They share several key views:
> The property market is more healthy than it was a few years ago;
> Sales may be flat going forward but this is better than a downward trend;
> Buyers are “more genuine” today;
> Landed housing costing RM500,000 to RM750,000 will help support the market;
> Capital gains will be marginal going forward unlike before, rental growth will also be slow but both will be more sustainable unlike the sizzle seen several years ago; and
> The issue of affordability must continue to be addressed.
The government announced in Budget 2017 last year that it was raising the stamp duty for properties worth more than RM1mil from 3% to 4% effective Jan 1, 2018.
A lot of families are downsizing and those properties purchased on developers interest schemes between 2010 and 2014 would have taken possession of their units this year. They will need to pay 90% mortgages.
Because many have bought multiple units, they would have tried to flip them, failing which they may have opted to rent them out.
National Property Information Centre (NAPIC): From the second quarter to the third quarter of 2016, total transactions dropped from 2,014 to 1,826 — a 9.3 per cent decline.
The same was seen with high-end commercial properties that fell 10 per cent in the same period.
Statistics by NAPIC revealed that Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Johor, were among the states that have been hit the hardest in the luxury property market segment.
According to data from NAPIC on residential homes in the city valued at over RM1 million, unsold units increased by over nine per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the same period a year later.
Cumulatively, this is equivalent to RM158 million worth of surplus units in the luxury home segment, based on figures from the first quarter comparison alone.
The report said the number of unsold properties increased 43.8% to 14,792 units in 2016 from 10,285 in 2015.
The biggest category was units priced at RM500,000 and above, totalling 6,052 units.
“There are also some 600,000 houses that are in planned supply, and altogether houses in Malaysia total around 6.4 million,”
During the Asian financial crisis, residential property values dropped by 36% while commercial property values dropped by 43.9%.
He acknowledged that this was more than the 25% to 30% drop in prices of some properties in today’s market.
He said he couldn’t say for sure when prices would finally bottom out, but expected them to go lower than the 1997/1998 levels by the middle of 2018.
He said speculators who bought properties between 2010 to 2014 were likely to be the hardest hit.
If you’re in no hurry, it would be better to wait till 2019 or 2020.
The new National Information Property Centre (Napic) 2016 report shows that the incoming supply of residential properties has inflated to 94,124 units, compared to 82,837 units in 2015.
Incoming supply refers to those properties undergoing construction work to be completed in three to four years.
Penang
“In 2016, the transactions of residential properties in Penang totalled 13,244 units worth RM5.36bil,” according to Napic.
“If the consumption per year continues at 12,000 to 13,000, it should take three to four years for the market to absorb the remaining 47,000 units,”
Some 51,453 units of the 94,124 are in the higher price range category, comprising 2-3 storey terraces, 2-3 semi-detached houses, detached houses, and condominiums, indicating an excess supply of high-end properties.
Early this year, a news report said data from the National Property Information Centre showed an increase in unsold residential homes in Kuala Lumpur valued at above RM1 million in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a year before. These surplus units were worth about RM158 million.
EPF figures indicate 89% of Malaysians earn less than RM5,000.
Penang and Selangor have imposed on foreigners a higher minimum purchase price – RM2 million – for landed properties or properties with individual titles.
They also impose a state levy of 3% on properties while Melaka and Johor charge a 2% state levy.
“The banks will not allow a Chinese national to transfer even the US$50,000 abroad unless it is for medical and educational purposes. Purchase of properties is prohibited.”
Chinese developers with projects in Malaysia include Guangzhou R&F Properties, Agile group, Zhuoda Real Estate Group, Hao Yuan Investment Pte Ltd with Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd planning to reclaim some 4,000 acres on the Johor Straits, and Shanghai-based state-owned Greenland Group.
Using the services of money changers is a black market operation and illegal, although some may still do that.
Says a source familiar with forex transactions: “Recent crackdowns have resulted in people losing money as there is no legal recourse on the money deposited into the account of an individual providing that forex service.”
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