Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher
By James Stafford
Source: Oil Price
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... igher.html
|
|
Lithium
Re: Lithium
by winston » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:18 am
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:16 pm
Lithium Prices Set To Jump As Tesla Doubles Global Battery Production
by Nick Cunningham
Source: Oilprice.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-p ... 00557.html
by Nick Cunningham
This single factory will lead to a doubling of global battery production capacity next year.
Lithium demand could rise by 16 percent annually through 2025, which, according to Morningstar, would be the fastest growth rate out of any other commodity in the past century.
Lithium prices exploded by 60 percent last year, and have tripled over the past three.
Source: Oilprice.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-p ... 00557.html
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:56 pm
December 2, 2016
Why Lithium Prices May Fall As Auto Battery Demand Rises
By Dimitra DeFotis
Lithium prices could start to fall soon, and investors should differentiate between battery technology and the raw commodity.
So say the analysts at Strategy-Pavilion Global Markets, who point to the supply of lithium-ion batteries to be produced at Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada.
The Global X Lithium exchange-traded fund (LIT) is up 23% this year, more than twice the return of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up 10%, and well above the 4% return of the United States Oil Fund (USO).
The Strategy-Paviliion analysts add:
” … Battery technologies and sub-components such as lithium ore should see their demand increase over the next few years. As these technologies continue to spread in various applications and sectors of the economy, we see batteries remaining a promising global, growth-oriented investment theme. However, as lithium prices could start to fall soon, it will be important to distinguish the Battery-tech play from the lithium play.
The U.S. leads the pack with regard to installed mass-energy storage capacity (e.g. large-scale batteries and/or capacitors), followed by Japan and South Korea.
As Utilities in various parts of the world increasingly source their power from wind and/or solar farms, the market for mass-energy storage technologies will grow considerably over the next few years.
However, while industrial and residential demand for mass energy-storage will remain strong, we wonder how the election of last month will impact the U.S.’ hybrid-electric car market, yet another growing end-user of battery technologies.
Still-low oil prices and pro oil and gas policies from the Trump administration could lead to cheaper oil prices in the U.S., which, in turn, could lead to a slowdown in the demand for both hybrid and electric cars – which has remained marginal as a percentage of total U.S. car market …
Moreover, equity prices of companies that either have lithium as an output (mining) and/or input (techs, industrials) – represented here in the Solactive Global Lithium Index (which includes mostly lithium miners) – rebounded sharply earlier this year with global commodity prices … “
AB analysts noted in October that lithium-ion battery costs are getting reasonable enough that “mass adoption of electric vehicles is feasible.” Car manufacturers including Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors (GM) and Nissan are attempting to price offerings under $30,000 after government incentives.
See our posts Lithium Prices: In A Frenzied Commodity Bubble? and 3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears.
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... yptr=yahoo
Why Lithium Prices May Fall As Auto Battery Demand Rises
By Dimitra DeFotis
Lithium prices could start to fall soon, and investors should differentiate between battery technology and the raw commodity.
So say the analysts at Strategy-Pavilion Global Markets, who point to the supply of lithium-ion batteries to be produced at Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada.
The Global X Lithium exchange-traded fund (LIT) is up 23% this year, more than twice the return of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up 10%, and well above the 4% return of the United States Oil Fund (USO).
The Strategy-Paviliion analysts add:
” … Battery technologies and sub-components such as lithium ore should see their demand increase over the next few years. As these technologies continue to spread in various applications and sectors of the economy, we see batteries remaining a promising global, growth-oriented investment theme. However, as lithium prices could start to fall soon, it will be important to distinguish the Battery-tech play from the lithium play.
The U.S. leads the pack with regard to installed mass-energy storage capacity (e.g. large-scale batteries and/or capacitors), followed by Japan and South Korea.
As Utilities in various parts of the world increasingly source their power from wind and/or solar farms, the market for mass-energy storage technologies will grow considerably over the next few years.
However, while industrial and residential demand for mass energy-storage will remain strong, we wonder how the election of last month will impact the U.S.’ hybrid-electric car market, yet another growing end-user of battery technologies.
Still-low oil prices and pro oil and gas policies from the Trump administration could lead to cheaper oil prices in the U.S., which, in turn, could lead to a slowdown in the demand for both hybrid and electric cars – which has remained marginal as a percentage of total U.S. car market …
Moreover, equity prices of companies that either have lithium as an output (mining) and/or input (techs, industrials) – represented here in the Solactive Global Lithium Index (which includes mostly lithium miners) – rebounded sharply earlier this year with global commodity prices … “
AB analysts noted in October that lithium-ion battery costs are getting reasonable enough that “mass adoption of electric vehicles is feasible.” Car manufacturers including Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors (GM) and Nissan are attempting to price offerings under $30,000 after government incentives.
See our posts Lithium Prices: In A Frenzied Commodity Bubble? and 3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears.
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... yptr=yahoo
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:00 pm
October 17, 2016
Lithium Prices: In A Frenzied Commodity Bubble?
By Dimitra DeFotis
Lithium prices have tripled since the beginning of 2015, and the frenzied commodity bubble could be coming to an end, AB analysts reiterated in a note today.
Analysts Paul Gait, Jeremy Redenius, Jonas Oxgaard, Phil Roseberg, Marion de Floris and Jonathan Absolon expanded on recent comments, noting that the spot price for China battery-grade lithium carbonate has moved from $7,000 per ton to $21,000 per ton. They do not think “demand should be the main determinant of long term lithium prices, whereas supply should.”
They write:
” … Commodities tend to be negatively correlated with demand growth, largely because men tend to use and consume what they have abundant access to. A great example would be aluminium: aluminium has seen the greatest demand growth in the past fifteen years but the commodity has experienced the slowest price appreciation among base metals and bulks.
During the super-cycle, aluminium prices “only” increased ~50% whereas copper quadrupled over the same period. Furthermore, the evidence that supply-demand balances actually determine prices is weak to non-existent in most cases. … Therefore, in this note, we take no view on the demand side of the picture but only use Roskill’s estimates …”
They on to supply of lithium, which “presents attributes of a commodity bubble.” The “compelling” bull case” — with vehicle manufacturers from Ford Motor (F) and Fiat-Chrysler (FCAU) to Navistar International (NAV) in line to produce lithium-battery powered vehicles — actually focuses mostly on demand and largely ignores the supply side of the equation …” They add:
” … Lithium is not rare. Quite the opposite actually: at current production rate, the reserve base equates to 431 years of supply! This compares with 39 years for copper and 15 years for zinc.
Lithium is also one of the most underutilised commodities in the world, i.e. its production is very small versus its geological abundance! … Potential technological breakthroughs could further flatten the cost curve …
It is only very recently that sales for electric vehicles started to increase and hence, that lithium became such a hot commodity. This was largely due to changes in Chinese regulations and Tesla’s success with the Model S last year. Before that, costs of these vehicles were quite prohibitive and represented the main obstacle to mass adoption of EVs prices only moderately.
Today, however, lithium-ion battery costs are close to the critical point where mass adoption of electric vehicles is feasible. It is expected that in 2016-2017, a number of car manufacturers, including Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors(GM) and Nissan, will launch electric vehicles at a price potentially under $30,000 after government incentives.
According to Wood Mackenzie, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV will have a battery cell costing $145 per kilowatt hour (kWh), equating to a $37,500 for an electric vehicle (EV) with a 200+ mile range. Finally, electric vehicles are approaching a price affordable to more and more households.
At $100/kWh, electric vehicles will even become price competitive with traditional gasoline cars. Meanwhile, sales of hybrid vehicles are also increasing fast and the hybridization is also spreading to lower costs models. The greatest cost in the manufacturing of an electric vehicle is the battery, and the largest cost component of a battery is the raw material …”
See our recent post “3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears.” There is a difference, in case you were wondering, between the lithium used in a battery, and the lithium used as a mood-stabilizing medicine to treat a psychological ailment, bipolar disorder. Though the elements in each are related.
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... ric-tears/
Lithium Prices: In A Frenzied Commodity Bubble?
By Dimitra DeFotis
Lithium prices have tripled since the beginning of 2015, and the frenzied commodity bubble could be coming to an end, AB analysts reiterated in a note today.
Analysts Paul Gait, Jeremy Redenius, Jonas Oxgaard, Phil Roseberg, Marion de Floris and Jonathan Absolon expanded on recent comments, noting that the spot price for China battery-grade lithium carbonate has moved from $7,000 per ton to $21,000 per ton. They do not think “demand should be the main determinant of long term lithium prices, whereas supply should.”
They write:
” … Commodities tend to be negatively correlated with demand growth, largely because men tend to use and consume what they have abundant access to. A great example would be aluminium: aluminium has seen the greatest demand growth in the past fifteen years but the commodity has experienced the slowest price appreciation among base metals and bulks.
During the super-cycle, aluminium prices “only” increased ~50% whereas copper quadrupled over the same period. Furthermore, the evidence that supply-demand balances actually determine prices is weak to non-existent in most cases. … Therefore, in this note, we take no view on the demand side of the picture but only use Roskill’s estimates …”
They on to supply of lithium, which “presents attributes of a commodity bubble.” The “compelling” bull case” — with vehicle manufacturers from Ford Motor (F) and Fiat-Chrysler (FCAU) to Navistar International (NAV) in line to produce lithium-battery powered vehicles — actually focuses mostly on demand and largely ignores the supply side of the equation …” They add:
” … Lithium is not rare. Quite the opposite actually: at current production rate, the reserve base equates to 431 years of supply! This compares with 39 years for copper and 15 years for zinc.
Lithium is also one of the most underutilised commodities in the world, i.e. its production is very small versus its geological abundance! … Potential technological breakthroughs could further flatten the cost curve …
It is only very recently that sales for electric vehicles started to increase and hence, that lithium became such a hot commodity. This was largely due to changes in Chinese regulations and Tesla’s success with the Model S last year. Before that, costs of these vehicles were quite prohibitive and represented the main obstacle to mass adoption of EVs prices only moderately.
Today, however, lithium-ion battery costs are close to the critical point where mass adoption of electric vehicles is feasible. It is expected that in 2016-2017, a number of car manufacturers, including Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors(GM) and Nissan, will launch electric vehicles at a price potentially under $30,000 after government incentives.
According to Wood Mackenzie, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV will have a battery cell costing $145 per kilowatt hour (kWh), equating to a $37,500 for an electric vehicle (EV) with a 200+ mile range. Finally, electric vehicles are approaching a price affordable to more and more households.
At $100/kWh, electric vehicles will even become price competitive with traditional gasoline cars. Meanwhile, sales of hybrid vehicles are also increasing fast and the hybridization is also spreading to lower costs models. The greatest cost in the manufacturing of an electric vehicle is the battery, and the largest cost component of a battery is the raw material …”
See our recent post “3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears.” There is a difference, in case you were wondering, between the lithium used in a battery, and the lithium used as a mood-stabilizing medicine to treat a psychological ailment, bipolar disorder. Though the elements in each are related.
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... ric-tears/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:05 pm
October 10, 2016
3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears
By Dimitra DeFotis
The lithium battery may be in great demand, but the mineral’s supplies in Chile, China and beyond are great, too, and mining innovations could precipitate the collapse in soaring lithium prices, according to a lengthy AB report.
AB analysts Paul Gait, Marion de Floris and Jonathan Absolon, in a report titled “Lithium: The Big Short,” write that while lithium demand could double in the next decade as electric vehicles from Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), Fiat-Chrysler (FCAU) and Navistar International (NAV) and other automakers gain popularity, “the lithium frenzy should all end in tears,” for three reasons:
“Lithium demonstrates all the characteristics of a commodity bubble:
1) what appears to be a compelling bull case, which actually focuses solely on demand and totally ignores the supply side of the equation;
2) an expanding supply side with a total lack of barriers to entry; and
3) technological innovations that could potentially halve costs and boost the reserve base ……
Perhaps the best illustration of that lithium frenzy is Tesla’s newly-built battery lithium-ion factory. Tesla is already the largest consumer of lithium ion on the planet and is set to become the largest producer of lithium-ion batteries, by far. The company’s new factory is huge.
So gigantic that BGR, a leading online website for mobiles and consumer electronics referenced it as “mind-blowing”. The factory was built (and is still not fully complete) to meet Tesla’s target to manufacture 500,000 electric cars per year by 2020 …”
Smallcap lithium producers naturally disagree, a quick google search shows. But Gait et al put the world’s lithium reserves at roughly 14 million tons. Half the lithium reserves are in Chile, 22% are in China and 14% in Argentina (14%). Add in Australia and those four countries control reserves.
A number of companies are planning projects that could add supplies including those in China, Mexico, Argentina, and a Rio Tinto (RIO) Serbia operation. Overall, AB expects that there will be “overwhelming surpluses.”
Gait adds:
” … We find that the bull case for lithium relies entirely on the demand side, as no other commodity shows such strong demand prospects. … we focus rather on the supply side and show here how abundant lithium is, and how easily producers are going to meet demand in the next few years.
We start by looking at the reserve base for lithium, then at lithium projects; and, finally, we analyse some technological innovations currently under development, which we believe will soon test the limits of the lithium bull case by allowing lower production costs and the expansion of lithium reserves … annual production of ~32.5kt (of lithium content). This implies that, at the current production rate, the reserves of lithium would last… 431 years.
In comparison, the life of copper reserves is 39 years (720Mt of copper reserves for an annual production of 18.7Mt), that of zinc is only 15 years, gold: 19 years, nickel: 31 years and iron ore: 56 years.
One can argue that the concept of reserves can be a dubious one as it involves commodity price assumptions. However we are here using the same source (i.e. the United States Geological Survey), so the same methodology is applied to the estimation lithium and other commodity reserves, in this case.
The differential between lithium and other commodities speaks for itself: lithium reserves are almost 30 times larger (in years of production) than zinc reserves; or 10 times larger than copper reserves …”
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... -in-tears/
3 Reasons Lithium ‘Bubble’ Will End In Tears
By Dimitra DeFotis
The lithium battery may be in great demand, but the mineral’s supplies in Chile, China and beyond are great, too, and mining innovations could precipitate the collapse in soaring lithium prices, according to a lengthy AB report.
AB analysts Paul Gait, Marion de Floris and Jonathan Absolon, in a report titled “Lithium: The Big Short,” write that while lithium demand could double in the next decade as electric vehicles from Tesla Motors (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), Fiat-Chrysler (FCAU) and Navistar International (NAV) and other automakers gain popularity, “the lithium frenzy should all end in tears,” for three reasons:
“Lithium demonstrates all the characteristics of a commodity bubble:
1) what appears to be a compelling bull case, which actually focuses solely on demand and totally ignores the supply side of the equation;
2) an expanding supply side with a total lack of barriers to entry; and
3) technological innovations that could potentially halve costs and boost the reserve base ……
Perhaps the best illustration of that lithium frenzy is Tesla’s newly-built battery lithium-ion factory. Tesla is already the largest consumer of lithium ion on the planet and is set to become the largest producer of lithium-ion batteries, by far. The company’s new factory is huge.
So gigantic that BGR, a leading online website for mobiles and consumer electronics referenced it as “mind-blowing”. The factory was built (and is still not fully complete) to meet Tesla’s target to manufacture 500,000 electric cars per year by 2020 …”
Smallcap lithium producers naturally disagree, a quick google search shows. But Gait et al put the world’s lithium reserves at roughly 14 million tons. Half the lithium reserves are in Chile, 22% are in China and 14% in Argentina (14%). Add in Australia and those four countries control reserves.
A number of companies are planning projects that could add supplies including those in China, Mexico, Argentina, and a Rio Tinto (RIO) Serbia operation. Overall, AB expects that there will be “overwhelming surpluses.”
Gait adds:
” … We find that the bull case for lithium relies entirely on the demand side, as no other commodity shows such strong demand prospects. … we focus rather on the supply side and show here how abundant lithium is, and how easily producers are going to meet demand in the next few years.
We start by looking at the reserve base for lithium, then at lithium projects; and, finally, we analyse some technological innovations currently under development, which we believe will soon test the limits of the lithium bull case by allowing lower production costs and the expansion of lithium reserves … annual production of ~32.5kt (of lithium content). This implies that, at the current production rate, the reserves of lithium would last… 431 years.
In comparison, the life of copper reserves is 39 years (720Mt of copper reserves for an annual production of 18.7Mt), that of zinc is only 15 years, gold: 19 years, nickel: 31 years and iron ore: 56 years.
One can argue that the concept of reserves can be a dubious one as it involves commodity price assumptions. However we are here using the same source (i.e. the United States Geological Survey), so the same methodology is applied to the estimation lithium and other commodity reserves, in this case.
The differential between lithium and other commodities speaks for itself: lithium reserves are almost 30 times larger (in years of production) than zinc reserves; or 10 times larger than copper reserves …”
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... -in-tears/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:55 am
The Lithium Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet
By Sean Brodrick
Source: The Oxford Club
http://energyandresourcesdigest.com/inv ... ?src=email
By Sean Brodrick
Even in the best case, lithium supply can barely keep up with demand for batteries for electric vehicles in 2017.
And let me tell you something about mines. At least a third of the time, something goes wrong.
The Tesla Gigafactory is just one of 13 massive lithium battery factories that are built or are being built around the world.
Source: The Oxford Club
http://energyandresourcesdigest.com/inv ... ?src=email
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:26 am
Lithium supply predicted to keep up with demand
Albemarle CEO says production will keep pace with growth of electric vehicles
Source: Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/dd1fa1d0-b57 ... acd97f622d
Albemarle CEO says production will keep pace with growth of electric vehicles
The global market for battery chemical lithium is likely to remain “fairly balanced” for the next four to five years with supply rising to meet increased demand from electric vehicles
Source: Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/dd1fa1d0-b57 ... acd97f622d
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:40 pm
3 Cheap Lithium Stocks to Buy That Will Energize Your Portfolio
Lithium is unquestionably a game changer, and these three Lithium stocks are a good way to join the party for cheap
By Adam Johnson
Source: Bullseye Brief
http://investorplace.com/2017/02/3-chea ... KaL2vl96M8
Lithium is unquestionably a game changer, and these three Lithium stocks are a good way to join the party for cheap
By Adam Johnson
Source: Bullseye Brief
http://investorplace.com/2017/02/3-chea ... KaL2vl96M8
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:40 am
not vested
Lithium
a. Global Lithium Demand: 185 ktpa; In 2025: 500 ktpa; Growth: 11% pa
b. Batteries: 40% demand now rising to 70% in 2025; Growth 45% yoy
c. 81% Global Supply: Chile, Australia and Argentina
d. 83% Global Suppy: Turning Around? Albemarle, SQM, FMC and Sichuan Tianqi
e. Cost of lithium-ion battery fell 65% to around $350 per kwh
f. Vehicle: LIT
Lithium
a. Global Lithium Demand: 185 ktpa; In 2025: 500 ktpa; Growth: 11% pa
b. Batteries: 40% demand now rising to 70% in 2025; Growth 45% yoy
c. 81% Global Supply: Chile, Australia and Argentina
d. 83% Global Suppy: Turning Around? Albemarle, SQM, FMC and Sichuan Tianqi
e. Cost of lithium-ion battery fell 65% to around $350 per kwh
f. Vehicle: LIT
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Lithium
by winston » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:52 pm
Lithium Demand
by Joshua M Brown
Source: The Reformed Broker
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/08/07 ... um-demand/
by Joshua M Brown
The production and use of electric cars is projected by Morgan Stanley analysts to rise to 2.9 percent of 99 million new vehicles in 2020 and to 9.4 percent of 102 million new vehicles in 2025, from 1.1 percent of 86.5 million this year.
By 2050, 81 percent of 132 million new auto sales will be electric, Morgan Stanley says
Source: The Reformed Broker
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/08/07 ... um-demand/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests