CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SocGen: Yuan Will Devalue To 7.10, But Don’t Short It

By Shuli Ren

The People’s Bank of China lowered its yuan fix for the 8th consecutive day, down 204 pips to 6.8495 per dollar, a new 8-year low.

A lot of yuan’s weakness comes from stronger dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index is toying with the psychologically important 100 level again.

In PBoC’s view, it’s just the dollar that is moving, whereas yuan has been stable, especially when we compare it against a currency basket of China’s major trading partners.

Societe Generale, a long-time yuan bear, continues to say the yuan will devalue to 7.10 per dollar. But the French bank does not recommend us foreigners shorting the offshore yuan. The main reason? You don’t want to be short squeezed by PBoC.

Currency strategist Jason Daw wrote:

Consensus remains complacent on the magnitude of CNY depreciation over the next year – we continue to envision a move to 7.10 while consensus expects 6.90.

And don’t forget Janet Yellen will be speaking to the Congress on Thursday, her first chance of assessing the U.S. economy after Donald Trump won the presidency. Any cautious remarks from her would stall the dollar rally.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -short-it/

[behappyalways]

I am worried that this might bring about another financial crisis.

SocGen: Yuan Will Devalue To 7.10, But Don’t Short It

By Shuli Ren

The People’s Bank of China lowered its yuan fix for the 8th consecutive day, down 204 pips to 6.8495 per dollar, a new 8-year low.

A lot of yuan’s weakness comes from stronger dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index is toying with the psychologically important 100 level again.

In PBoC’s view, it’s just the dollar that is moving, whereas yuan has been stable, especially when we compare it against a currency basket of China’s major trading partners.

Societe Generale, a long-time yuan bear, continues to say the yuan will devalue to 7.10 per dollar. But the French bank does not recommend us foreigners shorting the offshore yuan. The main reason? You don’t want to be short squeezed by PBoC.

Currency strategist Jason Daw wrote:

Consensus remains complacent on the magnitude of CNY depreciation over the next year – we continue to envision a move to 7.10 while consensus expects 6.90.

And don’t forget Janet Yellen will be speaking to the Congress on Thursday, her first chance of assessing the U.S. economy after Donald Trump won the presidency. Any cautious remarks from her would stall the dollar rally.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -short-it/

[winston]

I am worried that this might bring about another financial crisis.


SocGen: Yuan Will Devalue To 7.10, But Don’t Short It

I think the CNY may be quite ok. Probably an orderly decline.

I'm more worried about the declines of the other Emerging Market's currencies.

Their USD loans could become much more expensive.

[behappyalways]

The decline in RMB will force the other emerging markets' currencies to react

I am worried that this might bring about another financial crisis.


SocGen: Yuan Will Devalue To 7.10, But Don’t Short It

I think the CNY may be quite ok. Probably an orderly decline.

I'm more worried about the declines of the other Emerging Market's currencies.

Their USD loans could become much more expensive.

[winston]

How a Shanghai white-collar worker is joining frantic scramble to shift cash overseas as yuan hits seven-year low

Analysts question whether Beijing can realistically stem the flow of money abroad as people look to safeguard the value of their investments

Every Chinese resident is allowed to purchase up to $50,000 worth of foreign exchange a year, according to China’s foreign exchange rules. Any amount above that requires special regulatory approval.

“Simply by changing yuan deposits into dollar deposits, I can gain an annual return of four or five per cent” as he expects the yuan to weaken further against the dollar in 2017.

Chinese companies preferred commercial real estate projects in major economies on the expectation of stable returns from rentals.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... mble-shift

[behappyalways]

China just let its currency hit lows not seen since the financial crisis
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/15/investi ... index.html

[winston]

Yuan will slide by 5 per cent at most in 2017, says top economist

The current US dollar strengthening is ‘fragile’ while continued yuan devaluation ‘impossible’, says former PBOC official Li Daokui

He was using an exchange rate of 6.8 per US dollar – a level regarded in the market as psychologically important – as a benchmark, which means the biggest depreciation he expects would be 7.14 by the end of next year.

The biggest foreign holder of US government debt had US$1.16 trillion in bonds, notes and bills in September, down US$28.1 billion from the previous month, according to US Treasury Department data released on Wednesday in Washington and previous figures compiled by Bloomberg.

That’s the lowest level since September 2012.

China’s foreign exchange reserves – the world’s largest stockpile – were down to US$3.12 trillion by the end of October, from a record US$4 trillion in June 2014.

China has spent more than US$800 billion in foreign reserves in the past two years, to prop up yuan, Yu said.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-fi ... -economist

[behappyalways]

美元強拖累
料明年在岸價跌至7.3
高盛：沽人幣列首選策略
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financees ... 1479735866

[behappyalways]

China Eyes Yuan Outflows in Battle Against Sinking Currency
http://english.caixin.com/2016-11-28/101020081.html

[winston]

Outflows to face curbs

China is readying new restrictions on outbound foreign investment in an effort to curb capital outflows that are putting downward pressure on the yuan and draining foreign exchange reserves, according to people who have seen a draft of the rules, the Financial Times website reported yesterday.

The State Council is most concerned about outbound deals worth more than US$10 billion (HK$78 billion), two people familiar with the governments deliberations told FT.

They added that Chinese officials would scrutinize deals worth more than US$1 billion if they were outside the investors core business, the report said.

Meanwhile, state- owned enterprises will not be allowed to invest more than US$1 billion on a single overseas real-estate transaction, the report said.

Source: The Standard