AIA Group 1299

[winston]

<Research Report>JPM Expects AIA 1Q16 NBV to Rise 20%; Target Raised to $57

AIA (01299.HK) is scheduled to release its first quarter results on 22 April.

JP Morgan expected AIA to record 20% YoY NBV growth in the first quarter.

Business acceleration in China (1Q16 premium: +32% YoY) and double-digit business growth in Hong Kong/ Singapore and Malaysia are expected on the back of strong demand in healthcare/ protection.

The research house said that despite the concerns about Hong Kong operation's mid-term volume challenge outlook (following China's capital controls on the purchase of overseas insurance) as well as continuing macro challenges, a solid 1Q operation reporting should help clear investors' doubts with upward NBV consensus revision outlook.

The broker revised up 2016-2017 EPS forecast by -1%/11%.

The target price was raised to $57 from $56 and the rating was reiterated at Overweight.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>G Sachs Expects AIA 1Q VONB to Rise 16%; Rated Buy

AIA (01299.HK) is set to release its 1Q Value of New Business (VONB) tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs, in its report, expected VONB to rise 16% yearly to US$492 million on an actual exchange rate basis and a growth of 23% on a constant exchange rate basis.

The research house expects 1Q trends to be very similar to 4Q15 and the previous few quarters, with Hong Kong and China continuing to be strong key growth drivers.

The broker rated AIA at Buy and maintained the target at $57.

As revealed in the report, many investors have been concerned about the impact from the UnionPay transaction limit and Goldman Sachs's full-year estimates has factored in some negative impacts.

However, it is expected 1Q sales to remain vigorous, since industry sales to Mainland visitors might have accelerate post the UnionPay related news flow, although part of this might be due to customers front-loading their purchases on concerns of further restrictions.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

AIA Q1 Beat On Strong China Growth, Paints Bright Outlook

By Shuli Ren

Insurer AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong) reported strong first-quarter results thanks to successful execution in the China and Hong Kong markets.

In the March quarter, value of new business, insurance companies’ measure of future cash flow, jumped 44% to $578 million, a new Q1 record. This is substantially better than the consensus forecast of 19%.

The strong growth was driven by 5 percentage points margin expansion to 51.6% and significantly higher volume growth. In a statement, AIA said its “differentiated strategy in China” “produced a combination of increased active agent numbers, higher agent productivity levels and a high-quality product mix.”

Its Hong Kong market also did well, in part because of new businesses from mainland China.

In southeast Asia, Malaysia continued to do well, while operating margin in Thailand improved. Korea continued to struggle however.

AIA painted a bright outlook, saying Asian economies “remain resilient” and “the most attractive and exciting”.

AIA’s shares are down 1.4% this year and have retreated over 10% in the last year. Last summer, investors worried about its exposure to ASEAN currencies, and most recently, China’s clampdown on mainland Chinese buying insurance policies overseas.

Source: Barron's Asia

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>Deutsche: AIA (01299.HK) NBV Resilient; Target Lifted to $56.5

Deutsche Bank said in its report that AIA (01299.HK)'s NBV was resilient in 1Q16, mainly attributable to volume growth and margin expansion, bolstered by robust growth of Hong Kong and mainland markets.

Accordingly, the research house raised the forecast on AIA's NBV by 3.9% to US$26.89 and reiterated the company at Buy with target price lifted from $55.3 to $56.5. It continued to see AIA as a core holding.

The research house considered strong performance of the first quarter of AIA was spurred by increasing number of active agents in the mainland, improvement in agent productivity and high quality product portfolio.

On the other hand, AIA's NB margin grew by 4.8 ppt to 51.6%, mainly boosted by the positive improvement of geographical mix and channel mix. Meanwhile, the macro condition remained the same as last year.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>Citi: Surprised by AIA's Robust HK, PRC Biz in 1FQ; Target Raised to $51

Citigroup, in its report, said AIA (01299.HK)?s results once again surprised positively with 36% VoNB growth in 1FQ16, driven by 23% ANP growth and 4.8% increase in margin.

The robust VoNB growth was primarily due to exceptionally strong performance in China and Hong Kong.

The robust VoNB growth in Hong Kong in 1Q16 is likely unsustainable, and should slow down as the impact of stricter/tightened cross-border payment starts to be reflected from 2Q16 onward, and as capital outflows slow amid easing expectation of RMB depreciation.

Citigroup raised the VoNB estimates by 5-6%, target price lifted from $47 to $51 at rating Neutral.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

AIA’s China Trouble Rising As Beijing Warns Of Legal Risks

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... gal-risks/

[winston]

not vested

AIA Wishes Company Biz, Div to Keep Improving

Driven by respectable results, the final dividend of AIA (01299.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $324.01M; Ratio 32.672% was hiked by 50% to $0.51 per share.

CEO and President Mark Edward Tucker said the group targets to enhance its business and continuously increase dividend distribution in response to whether the group has plan to raise dividend further.

When being asked of the insurance outlook of Hong Kong, the CEO replied that local insurance has been growing robustly and that Hong Kong and mainland business is very crucial to the group as a whole.

However, the group also has business around the globe which should not be neglected.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

<Research Report>BofAML Lifts AIA New Biz Growth Forecast to 23% for This FY

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in its report, lifted the 2016 value of new business (VNB) forecast of AIA (01299.HK) to 23% from 18%, as it believed the 2H16 results will likely continue to be strong given the lower forex comparison base.

The broker said AIA?s growth in the first two quarters of 2016 in Hong Kong has benefited from mainland customers' orders, AIA also saw strong growth in other Asian markets. The broker remained the rating Buy at target price $58.

The broker said the market believed that the strong 36% VNB growth in 1Q16 was somewhat boosted by the rush order in Hong Kong before the tightening measure on mainland visitors' insurance purchase in Hong Kong via UnionPay, thus above the average of 22% in 1Qs of 2013 to 2015.

However, without the rush order in Hong Kong, AIA's fundamental growth remains solid at about 23-25% in 1Q16.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>C Suisse Raises AIA Target to $56.3; Rated Outperform

Credit Suisse, in its report, projected AIA (01299.HK)'s NBV for 1H16 to rise 32% US$1.269 billion. With interim results being the catalyst, the target price was lifted from $55 to $56.3 with rating kept at Outperform.

The broker said recent market data highlight continued strength in HK and China markets. Strong momentum in Malaysia has been sustained into 2Q on improving agency productivity.

Momentum in Singapore remains solid, but weak trends are likely to be seen in Thailand, due to the near-term challenging macroeconomic situation.

Headwinds in regional equity and FX markets continue, but should start easing in 1H16. Equity markets fell 2.1%, and pressure from local currencies' depreciation against the USD has gradually eased in 1H16.

Bond yields trended lower across the region. As such, we lower our FY16-18E earnings by 5-13%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

<Research Report>UBS Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1H16 VoNB to Rise 31%, with 37% Gain for HK

AIA (01299.HK) will release the interim results by 28 July.

UBS expected the value of the new business (VoNB) in 1H16 will rise 31%, in which its business in Hong Kong will see 37% yearly growth, mainland China 36% yearly growth, and Malaysia and Thailand are expected to see high double-digit growth.

UBS lifted the target price from $58.27 to $58.80 with the rating Buy.

The broker believed the equity losses of AIA will be limited, as Asian equity markets fell only 2% sicne 30 November 2015 on average in 1H16.

Forex headwinds also decreased in 1H16; on average, the currency headwind was only 0.5% on an NPAT basis and 0.1% on a balance sheet basis.

However, lower bond yields are negative for AIA in the medium to long term.

Source: AAStocks Financial News