CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

China Expert Evan Lorenz Says Yuan Devaluation Will Happen

How a historic debt binge got China to where it is today and the likely scenarios to follow

By Valentin Schmid

China is going to have to deal with this gigantic debt overhang, as it’s both a very poor and increasingly old country.

Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1980657 ... ll-happen/

[behappyalways]

China's FX reserves fall in February, outflows in focus
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/07/chinas-f ... focus.html

[behappyalways]

china-burns-hedge-funds-as-562-million-yuan-bet-turns-worthless
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -worthless

[winston]

Chinese yuan may weaken to 7 against dollar by year-end, Goldman Sachs says

Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/14/chinese- ... =103465689

[winston]

To Curb Yuan Shorts, PBoC Drafts Rules To Tax FX Transactions

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... nsactions/

[winston]

China’s Currency: The Ripple Effect

If the yuan heads lower, other Asian currencies will follow. We already know that the Japanese want to cheapen the yen in order to boost economic growth. But other currencies like the Singapore dollar are also likely to follow despite Singapore’s image as a strong currency state. Singapore’s banking system grew tremendously over the past five or six years but is now shrinking.

The same thing is starting to happen in Hong Kong. When China’s economy began to weaken, money flooded out of China into Hong Kong, which depressed interest rates in Hong Kong. But recently money has been leaving Hong Kong, which has pushed interest rates higher there. If rates rise in Hong Kong, it will hurt the stock market and its inflated real estate market. Hong Kong has significant geopolitical implications due to its complex relationship with China, so it is important to keep an eye on the former British colony. Problems in Hong Kong could have serious destabilizing effects on global markets.

The Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, is also being called into question. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has said it will defend the Hong Kong dollar but it will be increasingly difficult to do so. Both Singapore and Hong Kong are at risk of banking crises as a result of what is happening in China.

And from there, the ripples extend even further outward…

Source: Sure Money

[behappyalways]

China Reserves Slide Seen Easing, Yet Dam-Bust Still a Risk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ill-a-risk

[behappyalways]

China has stopped bleeding cash ... for now
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/07/news/ec ... index.html

[behappyalways]

Beijing risks 'ERM-style' currency crisis as deflation persists
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ion-persi/

[winston]

What Capital Exactly Is Flowing to and From China

Latest data gives us some clues, also about the direction of the currency

By Valentin Schmid

“China is likely to continue to face substantial net capital outflows, and there remain concerns that the RMB may at some point be devalued more meaningfully in the face of persistent declining reserves.”

The IIF believes outflows could total $530 billion in 2016.

Bank lending into China grew five times from 2010 to 2015 to $1 trillion, according to the IMF.

China still has about $1.4 trillion in foreign liabilities.

Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital says China’s reserves are inadequate when measured against all the deposits which could be transferred. He said the currency will soon devalue.

Source: Epoch Times

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-china ... 00179.html