AAR & TOL 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[iam802]

On Taiwan.

I have seen some positive movement on one of the Taiwan-related unit trust that I have since the China-Taiwan funds news announced 1-2 weeks back.

At this moment, it is too early to say whether long term it will give double digit growth. But, where other sectors are dropping, this is good news since it is slowly moving up.

[winston]

TOL (Update from Aug 9) - No major changes except for HK.

1) The bad news will persist for a while. This sort of thing needs some time to overcome.

2) Oil has corrected a lot. I would bet that it would continue to trend downwards with some sporadic technical rebounds. It's still too early to buy Oil stocks.

3) Gold has finally dropped. I would also bet that it will also trend downwards with some sporadic technical rebounds. So it's still too early to buy gold stocks or the Gold ETF listed in Spore or HK.

4) The US$ has strengthened a bit. Where is it's next big move ? I would bet that it may continue to strengthened in the shorter term. This may bring down the price of commodities further.

5) US Equities have rallied probably due to short-covering. If it continues to go up, the Long Fund would have no choice but to buy, for fear of under-performing the indices. However, the retail investors that have been hurt badly, may be selling into any rallies. Some of the Funds could also be selling into the rallies.

6) HK & Shanghai has performed below my expectation. However, the volatility has provided a lot of opportunity for the trading of puts & call warrants on the HSI. My strategy has been to sell euphoria and to buy extreme fear, taking 200 points on each movement.

7) As for Spore, I think it would probably not be going anywhere until year end.

8) Taiwan has corrected. Exports to the US would certainly be hurt. However, liquidity from foreign funds could be the catalyst for Taiwan to go up.

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. Please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to hear your kind thoughts and comments.

[millionairemind]

W - The news below might help Asian markets (namely SSE/HSI) a little next week???

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080816/ ... 231dd.html

SHANGHAI, Aug 16 - China's securities regulator said it was concerned about the plunge of Chinese stock prices and would work to stabilise the market.

"We are paying close attention to the fluctuations in the market," a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement carried on the front pages of major business newspapers on Saturday.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> hit a 19-month closing low on Thursday and is down 60 percent from last October's record peak, dragged down by high inflation, slowing corporate profit growth and heavy supplies of fresh equity.

Regulators have issued periodic statements this year pledging to help stabilise the market. It was not clear if the measures outlined in the latest statement would have an impact.

The commission said it would tighten supervision of sales of shares made tradable by the expiry of lock-up periods related to initial public offers and the reforms of state shareholding structures. Tens of billions of dollars of such shares will become tradable this year and next, pressuring the market.

Restrictions on large-lot sales of the shares will be enforced with a new monitoring system, and the commission will seek to limit the impact of disposals via the use of instruments including exchangeable bonds, it said without elaborating.

The commission said it would pay close attention to supply and demand when approving new issues of shares, and pledged to promote more long-term investment in the market by institutions such as foreign funds and Chinese insurers and pension funds.

Procedures for companies to buy back their own shares would be streamlined, and regulations would be improved to encourage firms to pay dividends. The commission added that it would crack down further on abuses such as insider trading and inaccurate valuation of assets during corporate restructurings.

[winston]

TOL

1) The bad news will persist for a while.

2) Oil has corrected a lot on Friday. I think it could still trend downwards with some technical rebounds along the way. I think that it is still a bit early to buy any Oil stocks. However, it may not hurt to start nibbling on some Oil Services stocks for the medium term. I would like to first see whether Oil can break thru US$110, US$104 and finally US$100.

3) Gold is still surprisingly strong. I think that it will trend downwards with some technical rebounds. I do not think that it is the right time to buy gold stocks or any Gold ETF.

4) The US$ has strengthened especially against the Euro. I think the USD will continue to rise against the Euro for a while.

5) In the last Commodity Run, a lot of the funds missed the boat. I think there is now a lot of people waiting on the sidelines to jump into commodities. The only thing holding them back is the slew of bad news eg. slowing global economy, credit crunch etc. If one wants to get some exposure to commodities, Oil may be a safer bet than Gold or Industrial Metals.

6) I expect China to start stock-piling Commodities, taking advantage of the strong US$ and low Commodity prices. This could provide some support to Commodity prices as well as the Commodity Currencies eg. Loonie, AUD and Real.

7) US Equities have rallied a bit, probably due to short-covering. From here, I think the US Equities could be in a sideways range, with a downward bias.

7) HK & Shanghai - the expected Olympics rally did not materialize. Markets have corrected quite a bit. I do not see it going anywhere from here. Safer to buy a Put when the market gets a bit extended and a Call when it gets oversold. It will probably be range bound for a while, also with a downward bias.

7) As for Spore, I dont see it going anywhere until year-end.

8) Taiwan has corrected. Liquidity from foreign funds could be the catalyst for Taiwan to go up.

9) Am quite interested in Russia. However, I think that they need to first sort out many things. A bit too early to buy Russia now.

10) I will be continuing my strategy of trading warrants ( calls & puts on the indices ) to capitalize on any short-term fluctuations, while still investing in stocks for the medium term.

11) Finally, I think that it is also a good time to go for a long vacation. Market could be sluggish for the next few months. I would also need to start raising some cash over the next few weeks as I wont be able to monitor my counters on a real time.

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. Please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

[kennynah]

What a solid plan!! Always staying steps ahead. Mark of a successful trader. All the best to u

[winston]

What a solid plan!! Always staying steps ahead.

Ha Ha... you mean my plans for a long vacation

Please comment lah on my strategies. I always have high regards for your opinion.

Take care,
Winston

[iam802]

After more than a year of trading/investing, I have to admit that the stock market is not for me.

I lost more than I make. The bank account is almost empty and it is time to say goodbye.

The year has been harsh and I have to admit, greed and fear cost my downfall.

So, thanks everyone for the wonderful time.





And here's something before I leave.....

Hidden Content:

what I meant is... the above is not true.

I am going off on a break. Hence, I am posting in the AAR and TOL thread.

JL say must go fishing. So, I am going up North to have a break and maybe do some fishing as well.

The volatile market is the best roller-coaster ride I have ever taken and I am enjoying every single minute of it.

Stay vigilant and hope everyone continue to Huat!

[millionairemind]

Good one 802

[LenaHuat]

Enjoy yourself, iam802.

[kennynah]

enjoy 802....when JL travelled, he had many a companion....those werent his wife and children....

see u around soon...