AIA Group 1299

[winston]

not vested

<Research Report>HSBC: AIA 3Q NBV Expected to Rise 15%; TP Cut to $54

AIA (01299.HK) is scheduled to release its 3Q's financial data next Friday (16 October).

AIA's 3Q NBV is expected to rise 15% to US$538 million, with 6% growth in ANP and 54% margin, based on the report of HSBC.

HSBC also revised down the full-year NBV growth forecast from 23% to 19%, implying 4Q NBV growth of 21%.

The research house trimmed the target price of AIA from $59 to $54, which indicates a fair P/EV multiple of 2.05x (down from 2.25x).

The rating was reiterated at Buy.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

G Sachs Expects AIA 3Q VNB Up 15% YoY

AIA (01299.HK) -0.400 (-0.904%) Short selling $138.43M; Ratio 16.746% is set to unveil its 3Q Value of New Business (VONB) data on 16 October.

Goldman Sachs expected AIA to deliver VONB of US$537 million, +15 YoY on an actual currency basis and +22% on constant currency.

The target price, CL-Buy rating and forecast of AIA remained changed.

The research house stated that the significant depreciation of Asian currencies will pose negative impacts on AIA's VONB.

However, the major markets of the company are healthy and largely consistent with previous few quarters.

China and Hong Kong markets continue to lead. In addition, it is anticipated that Malaysia and other markets will record a vigorous growth on a constant currency basis, yet a large part of it will be offset by currency depreciation.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

AIA 3Q VONB Rises 25% YoY to US$552M

AIA (01299.HK) announced the third quarter results ended 31 August 2015.

The value of new business (VONB) recorded a 25 per cent growth on constant exchange rates (CER) to US$552 million.

VONB growth was 18 per cent in reporting currency.

Each of the geographical market segments, except for Korea, delivered strong double-digit VONB growth on constant exchange rates compared with the third quarter of 2014.

VONB margin up 8.4 percentage points (pps) to 57.6 per cent on constant exchange rates.

Annualised new premiums (ANP) amounted to US$936 million, up 7 per cent.

Total weighted premium income (TWPI) equaled US$4,846 million, up 7 per cent from a year earlier.

Mark Tucker, AIA?s Group Chief Executive and President, said that strong performance in Hong Kong with VONB growth benefiting from a double-digit increase in the number of active agents and continued strong growth momentum in Thailand and Singapore, driven by further margin expansion, again maintaining the positive trend established in the first half of the year.

Malaysia achieved excellent VONB growth on constant exchange rates from higher agent productivity driving strong ANP growth and the result of the strategy of focusing on regular premium products with protection riders.

Korea reported lower VONB compared with the third quarter of 2014 following continued challenging market conditions, as noted in the first half results.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

<Post-Result>Brokers' Latest Ratings & TPs for AIA (Table)

AIA (01299.HK) announced the results for the third quarter ended 31 August 2015.

The value of new business (VONB) recorded a 25% growth on constant exchange rates (CER) to US$552 million.

VONB growth was 18% in reporting currency.

The following is the latest investment ratings and target prices by 8 brokers:

Broker/ Investment Rating/ Target Price (HK$)
JP Morgan/ Overweight/ 60
Goldman Sachs/ Buy (CL Buy)/ 60
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Buy/ 58
UBS/ Buy/ 57.5
Credit Suisse/ Outperform/ 57.5
Deutsche Bank/ Buy/ 52.3->56.5
HSBC/ Buy/ 54
Macquarie/ Neutral/ 44


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

UBS Maintains AIA (01299.HK) at Buy with Target Cut to $56.5


UBS lowered AIA (01299.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $276.68M; Ratio 21.342% 's EPS forecast in 2015-2017 by 12%, 5% and 2% based on the foreign exchange trend movements, equity markets and premium income figures.

Its target price was trimmed from $57.5 to $56.5 and the rating was maintained at Buy.

The broker estimated that for every 5% strengthening of the US dollar against major ASEAN currencies, EV would fade 2.6% and for every 10% decline in equity markets they would fall 2.3%.

The broker believed that market concern about foreign-exchange movements and a potential slowdown in Hong Kong and China have limited the upside potential for AIA's shares. However, the value of new business (VoNB) growth should stay strong for the next two years.

Furthermore, snce AIA’s IPO, the importance of the China market to AIA has increased significantly. The VoNB contribution of the China market to AIA increased from only 8% in 2009 to 18% as of the first half of 2015.

Hong Kong and China markets should still be the company's major drivers in 2016.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

vested

AIA: China May Ban Offshore Insurance To Slow Capital Flight, 16% Cut In Valuation Seen

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... tion-seen/

[winston]

<Result Ann>C Suisse: AIA Has Long Term Investment Value; as Defensive Stock in Market
Dec 3, 2015

The major growth momentum for AIA (01299.HK) and PRU (02378.HK) came from Hong Kong and China.

Credit Suisse said that AIA has strong positioning in rapid growing ASEAN regions and performs very well in both Hong Kong and Mainland markets.

The research house sees AIA as an appealing longer-term investment and a defensive stock in this market environment.

The rating was retained at Outperform and the target price was maintained at $57.5.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

vested

<Research Report>BofAML: New Limit on UnionPay May Slash AIA's NBV Growth by 3 ppts

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said according to Bloomberg, the PRC government will impose a cap on the use of Unionpay bankcards and deposit cards for purchase of insurance products overseas tomorrow (4 February), making investors worry the new curb will dampen AIA (01299.HK)'s Hong Kong business.

Nevertheless, the research house found that the new curb does not limit online payment, wire transfer or bank draft, which may not have a significant impact on AIA.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained the company at Buy with target of $58 despite current negative market sentiment.

The research house said as Hong Kong business accounted for 30% for AIA's NBV and assumed 20% customers are from the mainland, the effect of worst case on the proportion of mainland customers buying insurance in Hong Kong reached 50% and may harm AIA's NBV by 3 percentage points.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

<Research Report>JP Morgan: AIA Rated Overweight; Target Cut to $56

JP Morgan pointed out that AIA (01299.HK)'s YTD share price has outperformed the market and other listed insurers.

It is believed that recent share price correction is a reflection of volatile market which bought negative impacts to the company's profit and NBV prospect.

The research house believes that the current level is an opportunity to accumulate. The target price was trimmed from $60 to $56, yet the rating was reiterated at Overweight.

The old belief is that P&C insurers outperform life insurers in a bear market since P&C underwriting cycle/ top-line sales have less correlation to the financial market;

P&C requires a relatively small capital base; and life insurers are more sensitive to reinvestment risk.

However, JP Morgan does not wholly agree with this opinion, saying that AIA can still outperform in the future. This is because AIA generates most of its free cash flow from its core insurance profit.


It also steadily delivers double-digit growth through market cycles. In addition, AIA offers sustainable shareholder return.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Citi: Impact of Unionpay Limits on AIA (01299.HK) Should Not Be Overstated

Citigroup, in its report, said Unionpay has been following the PRC relevant regulations to conduct its business and the cap of US$5,000 has been existing for long.

Therefore, the research house said the impact of Unionpay limits on AIA should not be overstated although it might not strictly follow the rules in the past and said the market has been overreacting.

The research house said AIA's mainland business only accounted for about 10% its ANP despite its high growth and the company has outstanding diversified business portfolio.

It kept AIA at Buy with target price of $60.

Source: AAStocks Financial News