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Sugar, Stevia etc.
Re: Sugar
by behappyalways » Sat Mar 28, 2015 2:10 pm
Volatile sugar market afflicts Indian farmers
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32088334
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32088334
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- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
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Re: Sugar
by winston » Thu May 14, 2015 8:17 pm
It's Time to Bet on This Beaten-Down Commodity By Brian Weepie
One of the world's largest commodity firms just made a big bet on sugar.
If you're interested in making money in the commodities sector, you should consider doing the same…
Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness firm. The $20 billion company's business activities include processing palm oils and refining edible oils and specialty fats. It's also the world's largest raw-sugar producer and refiner.
Earlier this month, Wilmar made headlines when it bought a record 1.9 million metric tons of raw sugar against a May futures contract. To put this number into perspective, it's more than 1% of the world's total annual sugar production.
This is a big deal.
As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, futures contracts are an agreement to buy a certain asset at a certain price on a certain day.
However, about 90% of futures contracts go undelivered. Even if the owner of the position has a gain (meaning the price of the commodity is now higher than what he paid), he normally sells the contract. Few owners choose to receive the underlying commodity.
So Wilmar choosing to receive the sugar was a surprise. And the amount of sugar set a new record, according to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data that date back to 1989. Wilmar also asked for the delivery to be made as soon as possible. Several firms will deliver the sugar from ports in Brazil, Honduras, and Guatemala.
So why is Wilmar suddenly buying raw sugar? In short, it's betting prices are about to rally.
My colleague Matt Badiali told you about the opportunity setting up in sugar in January. From 2010 to early 2011, sugar saw a huge boom. Prices more than doubled in less than a year.
Rising prices caused farmers to increase their sugar production. But this led to an oversupply… and sugar prices crashed. Although prices have recently increased 14% from their March low, they're still down around 60% from their 2011 highs.
Please Enable Images to See this
But that's about to change…
Sugar production is set to fall this year in the world's main sugar-producing countries thanks to below-average rainfall forecasts and the potential of an El Niño event.
An El Niño event occurs when the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. And it affects weather worldwide.
In Australia (the world's ninth-largest sugar producer) and India (the world's second-largest sugar producer), an El Niño causes severe drought – which limits sugar-cane growth. For example, the El Niño in 2009 caused the worst drought in four decades in India.
In Brazil (the world's largest sugar producer), an El Niño has the opposite effect. It causes torrential rains, which adversely affect production, too. High water levels increase disease and pests. It also makes harvesting sugar cane more difficult. For example, according to commodity broker Marex Spectron, the El Niño in 1997 caused sugar production in Brazil to decline by 2%. That was the only year in the last decade when production fell.
Australia, Japan, and the U.S. have all said that an El Niño event emerged in February. And the U.S. Climate Prediction Center says there's a "70% chance the pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere this summer." Australia's weather bureau has even said this year's event will probably be "substantial."
So we could soon see sugar production decrease significantly.
Meanwhile, as Matt showed you in January, sugar demand is increasing in places like China and India.
Jack Scoville, senior market analyst for the PRICE Futures Group in Chicago, also says analysts expect refiners (especially in Brazil) will convert more sugar cane to ethanol if the price of crude oil remains at current levels.
You see, the recent increase in the price of crude oil from its mid-March lows (it's up around 44%) makes petroleum products (like ethanol) more valuable. As more sugar goes to fuel production, it will help increase sugar demand and the price.
Thanks to increasing consumption and decreasing production, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects sugar inventories to fall this year for the first time since the 2010-2011 crop year.
These are some of the reasons Wilmar is buying sugar right now. But they're not the only reasons to be bullish on sugar today…
Scoville says the Brazilian real is another reason we could soon see higher sugar prices.
From the end of June to mid-March, the U.S. dollar was on a tear. It appreciated 50% against the Brazilian real. The move helped sugar prices stay low.
Like most commodities, sugar is priced in U.S. dollars. But the production costs to make sugar in Brazil (which, as I said, is the world's largest sugar producer) are in reals. That means the cheaper the real is to the dollar, the cheaper Brazil can sell its sugar to the rest of the world.
But it looks like the real has bottomed against the dollar. It has appreciated 7.5% versus the dollar since its mid-March low. You can see this in the chart below (the higher the line, the more valuable the real is versus the dollar).
Please Enable Images to See this
With the real rising, so will the price of Brazil's sugar
So, there are several reasons why sugar prices are likely to rally this year. Of course, we can't know for sure what the weather will do, so this is a speculative trade. But one of the world's largest sugar producers is making the bet. If you want to profit in the commodities sector, you should consider doing the same.
Traders looking to speculate on increasing sugar prices can buy one of three exchange-traded funds with exposure to sugar: the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return Fund (SGG), the iPath Pure Beta Sugar Fund (SGAR), and the Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE). These funds are already beginning to head higher with the price of sugar. And they should continue to do well as sugar prices recover.
Source: Stansberry Resource Report
One of the world's largest commodity firms just made a big bet on sugar.
If you're interested in making money in the commodities sector, you should consider doing the same…
Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness firm. The $20 billion company's business activities include processing palm oils and refining edible oils and specialty fats. It's also the world's largest raw-sugar producer and refiner.
Earlier this month, Wilmar made headlines when it bought a record 1.9 million metric tons of raw sugar against a May futures contract. To put this number into perspective, it's more than 1% of the world's total annual sugar production.
This is a big deal.
As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, futures contracts are an agreement to buy a certain asset at a certain price on a certain day.
However, about 90% of futures contracts go undelivered. Even if the owner of the position has a gain (meaning the price of the commodity is now higher than what he paid), he normally sells the contract. Few owners choose to receive the underlying commodity.
So Wilmar choosing to receive the sugar was a surprise. And the amount of sugar set a new record, according to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data that date back to 1989. Wilmar also asked for the delivery to be made as soon as possible. Several firms will deliver the sugar from ports in Brazil, Honduras, and Guatemala.
So why is Wilmar suddenly buying raw sugar? In short, it's betting prices are about to rally.
My colleague Matt Badiali told you about the opportunity setting up in sugar in January. From 2010 to early 2011, sugar saw a huge boom. Prices more than doubled in less than a year.
Rising prices caused farmers to increase their sugar production. But this led to an oversupply… and sugar prices crashed. Although prices have recently increased 14% from their March low, they're still down around 60% from their 2011 highs.
Please Enable Images to See this
But that's about to change…
Sugar production is set to fall this year in the world's main sugar-producing countries thanks to below-average rainfall forecasts and the potential of an El Niño event.
An El Niño event occurs when the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. And it affects weather worldwide.
In Australia (the world's ninth-largest sugar producer) and India (the world's second-largest sugar producer), an El Niño causes severe drought – which limits sugar-cane growth. For example, the El Niño in 2009 caused the worst drought in four decades in India.
In Brazil (the world's largest sugar producer), an El Niño has the opposite effect. It causes torrential rains, which adversely affect production, too. High water levels increase disease and pests. It also makes harvesting sugar cane more difficult. For example, according to commodity broker Marex Spectron, the El Niño in 1997 caused sugar production in Brazil to decline by 2%. That was the only year in the last decade when production fell.
Australia, Japan, and the U.S. have all said that an El Niño event emerged in February. And the U.S. Climate Prediction Center says there's a "70% chance the pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere this summer." Australia's weather bureau has even said this year's event will probably be "substantial."
So we could soon see sugar production decrease significantly.
Meanwhile, as Matt showed you in January, sugar demand is increasing in places like China and India.
Jack Scoville, senior market analyst for the PRICE Futures Group in Chicago, also says analysts expect refiners (especially in Brazil) will convert more sugar cane to ethanol if the price of crude oil remains at current levels.
You see, the recent increase in the price of crude oil from its mid-March lows (it's up around 44%) makes petroleum products (like ethanol) more valuable. As more sugar goes to fuel production, it will help increase sugar demand and the price.
Thanks to increasing consumption and decreasing production, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects sugar inventories to fall this year for the first time since the 2010-2011 crop year.
These are some of the reasons Wilmar is buying sugar right now. But they're not the only reasons to be bullish on sugar today…
Scoville says the Brazilian real is another reason we could soon see higher sugar prices.
From the end of June to mid-March, the U.S. dollar was on a tear. It appreciated 50% against the Brazilian real. The move helped sugar prices stay low.
Like most commodities, sugar is priced in U.S. dollars. But the production costs to make sugar in Brazil (which, as I said, is the world's largest sugar producer) are in reals. That means the cheaper the real is to the dollar, the cheaper Brazil can sell its sugar to the rest of the world.
But it looks like the real has bottomed against the dollar. It has appreciated 7.5% versus the dollar since its mid-March low. You can see this in the chart below (the higher the line, the more valuable the real is versus the dollar).
Please Enable Images to See this
With the real rising, so will the price of Brazil's sugar
So, there are several reasons why sugar prices are likely to rally this year. Of course, we can't know for sure what the weather will do, so this is a speculative trade. But one of the world's largest sugar producers is making the bet. If you want to profit in the commodities sector, you should consider doing the same.
Traders looking to speculate on increasing sugar prices can buy one of three exchange-traded funds with exposure to sugar: the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return Fund (SGG), the iPath Pure Beta Sugar Fund (SGAR), and the Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE). These funds are already beginning to head higher with the price of sugar. And they should continue to do well as sugar prices recover.
Source: Stansberry Resource Report
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112617
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Sugar
by winston » Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:45 am
A VERY SWEET TRADE by Sean Brodrick
What's the most addictive substance you can think of? Heroin? Cocaine? Nicotine? No, no and no.
The answer is sugar!
Multiple studies have shown that sugar is more addictive than cocaine... or heroin... OR nicotine.
One study in 2013 tested sugar on lab rats using Oreo cookies. The drugs we view as "most addicting" came up short by comparison every time. In fact, the scientists found that Oreos activated more neurons in the brain's "pleasure center" than exposure to hard drugs.
Even if you don't know it, you're probably hooked on the sweet white stuff. The average American consumes about 3,550 pounds of sugar over the course of his or her lifetime.
This quantity would equal about three pounds of sugar per week! Sugar is loaded into everything from the usual suspects like cookies and cakes to more subtle "pushers" like pizza sauce and hamburger buns.
Heck, McDonald's oatmeal contains more sugar than a Snickers bar!
It's no wonder America is becoming a nation of diabetics. But I'm not here to rant against the evils of sugar. No... I come not to bury sugar, but to praise it!
That is, praise it as a potential investment. Let me show you an interesting chart...
Sugar Rush
As you can see, sugar tried to break down last week. That breakdown failed. So instead, sugar is forming a potential "double bottom" pattern... and is poised to go higher.
Sugar should rally to at least its 200-day moving average of $14.47 a pound, which would be a 20% rally from the current quote of $12.05... And that would be a very sweet trade!
Sugar's failure to break down is significant. Just last week, sugar fell to a six-year low, and Bloomberg declared, "There's nothing sweet in the sugar market for bulls." So why did sugar refuse to break down?
I'll tell you why...
Demand Edges Ahead of Production
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global sugar consumption will extend its long-term and steady rise. In 2015-2016, global consumption should rise by nearly 3 million metric tons to hit 173.4 million metric tons.
Sugar Rush
Meanwhile, the USDA says production will fall by nearly 1 million metric tons, which would mean that consumption would overtake production for the first time since 2009. And not coincidentally, the sugar price back then was triple today's price.
China Has a Sweet Tooth
America isn't the only nation with a craving for sugar. China is developing a sweet tooth in a big way. China has been the world's top sugar buyer and importer since 2011. This year it should see its purchases rise by 700,000 metric tons to 5.5 million metric tons. That's a new record.
In fact, China's sugar imports in April of this year were double that of a year ago. So, estimates of China's sweet tooth may be light.
At the same time, China's sugar production this year will be down a whopping 20%. So maybe the sugar market is looking at that and thinking China's hunger for imported sugar will be super-sized.
The El Niño Effect
And there's one more reason why sugar may rally sharply from current levels. Let's call it the meteorological wild card...
A "moderate to strong" El Niño is developing, according to meteorologists. El Niño is a weather pattern in the Pacific that has global effects - increasing dryness in some places and cranking up the rain in others.
El Niño is associated with more rain in Brazil's sugar regions, which could delay sugar harvests, maybe by weeks. More importantly, heavy rain will lower the sugar levels in plants.
The second-biggest sugar producer is India. El Niño creates weak monsoon seasons there, which would hurt the country's sugar crop.
And one thing to keep in mind is that predictions of a bumper sugar crop have been weighing heavily on the sugar price. So bad weather in any major sugar-growing region could lift the sugar price quickly.
To be sure, there are forces that could turn this budding sugar rally into nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. If the U.S. dollar keeps rallying, for example, that could weigh on sugar prices, as sugar, like other commodities, is priced in dollars. Additionally, a dip in demand for Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol would mean the excess sugarcane would become sugar, rather than ethanol, thereby boosting sugar supplies.
But the way it looks now, sugar has bared its (probably cavity-riddled) teeth in the face of extremely bearish news and refused to break down. The easiest path now is toward higher prices.
So How Can You Play This?
The New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) No. 11 sugar futures contracts are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per pound. Each contract represents 112,000 pounds. You can also buy options on sugar futures, if you have a commodity-trading account. And Sugar No. 11 is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) with the very same contracts offered on the NYMEX. The ICE also offers options and spreads on sugar.
There are also a few sugar-focused exchange-traded funds. But most of them are tiny and trade very few shares a day. However, the iPath Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: SGG), trading at $30.56 with a $40 million market cap, has pretty good volume.
So that would be my favorite way to speculate on the sugar rally that I believe is coming our way.
Source: The Non-Dollar Report
What's the most addictive substance you can think of? Heroin? Cocaine? Nicotine? No, no and no.
The answer is sugar!
Multiple studies have shown that sugar is more addictive than cocaine... or heroin... OR nicotine.
One study in 2013 tested sugar on lab rats using Oreo cookies. The drugs we view as "most addicting" came up short by comparison every time. In fact, the scientists found that Oreos activated more neurons in the brain's "pleasure center" than exposure to hard drugs.
Even if you don't know it, you're probably hooked on the sweet white stuff. The average American consumes about 3,550 pounds of sugar over the course of his or her lifetime.
This quantity would equal about three pounds of sugar per week! Sugar is loaded into everything from the usual suspects like cookies and cakes to more subtle "pushers" like pizza sauce and hamburger buns.
Heck, McDonald's oatmeal contains more sugar than a Snickers bar!
It's no wonder America is becoming a nation of diabetics. But I'm not here to rant against the evils of sugar. No... I come not to bury sugar, but to praise it!
That is, praise it as a potential investment. Let me show you an interesting chart...
Sugar Rush
As you can see, sugar tried to break down last week. That breakdown failed. So instead, sugar is forming a potential "double bottom" pattern... and is poised to go higher.
Sugar should rally to at least its 200-day moving average of $14.47 a pound, which would be a 20% rally from the current quote of $12.05... And that would be a very sweet trade!
Sugar's failure to break down is significant. Just last week, sugar fell to a six-year low, and Bloomberg declared, "There's nothing sweet in the sugar market for bulls." So why did sugar refuse to break down?
I'll tell you why...
Demand Edges Ahead of Production
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global sugar consumption will extend its long-term and steady rise. In 2015-2016, global consumption should rise by nearly 3 million metric tons to hit 173.4 million metric tons.
Sugar Rush
Meanwhile, the USDA says production will fall by nearly 1 million metric tons, which would mean that consumption would overtake production for the first time since 2009. And not coincidentally, the sugar price back then was triple today's price.
China Has a Sweet Tooth
America isn't the only nation with a craving for sugar. China is developing a sweet tooth in a big way. China has been the world's top sugar buyer and importer since 2011. This year it should see its purchases rise by 700,000 metric tons to 5.5 million metric tons. That's a new record.
In fact, China's sugar imports in April of this year were double that of a year ago. So, estimates of China's sweet tooth may be light.
At the same time, China's sugar production this year will be down a whopping 20%. So maybe the sugar market is looking at that and thinking China's hunger for imported sugar will be super-sized.
The El Niño Effect
And there's one more reason why sugar may rally sharply from current levels. Let's call it the meteorological wild card...
A "moderate to strong" El Niño is developing, according to meteorologists. El Niño is a weather pattern in the Pacific that has global effects - increasing dryness in some places and cranking up the rain in others.
El Niño is associated with more rain in Brazil's sugar regions, which could delay sugar harvests, maybe by weeks. More importantly, heavy rain will lower the sugar levels in plants.
The second-biggest sugar producer is India. El Niño creates weak monsoon seasons there, which would hurt the country's sugar crop.
And one thing to keep in mind is that predictions of a bumper sugar crop have been weighing heavily on the sugar price. So bad weather in any major sugar-growing region could lift the sugar price quickly.
To be sure, there are forces that could turn this budding sugar rally into nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. If the U.S. dollar keeps rallying, for example, that could weigh on sugar prices, as sugar, like other commodities, is priced in dollars. Additionally, a dip in demand for Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol would mean the excess sugarcane would become sugar, rather than ethanol, thereby boosting sugar supplies.
But the way it looks now, sugar has bared its (probably cavity-riddled) teeth in the face of extremely bearish news and refused to break down. The easiest path now is toward higher prices.
So How Can You Play This?
The New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) No. 11 sugar futures contracts are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per pound. Each contract represents 112,000 pounds. You can also buy options on sugar futures, if you have a commodity-trading account. And Sugar No. 11 is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) with the very same contracts offered on the NYMEX. The ICE also offers options and spreads on sugar.
There are also a few sugar-focused exchange-traded funds. But most of them are tiny and trade very few shares a day. However, the iPath Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: SGG), trading at $30.56 with a $40 million market cap, has pretty good volume.
So that would be my favorite way to speculate on the sugar rally that I believe is coming our way.
Source: The Non-Dollar Report
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112617
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Sugar
by winston » Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:03 pm
Sugar far from sweet spot for investors
by Catherine Boyle
Source: CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102762123?__sour ... =102762123
by Catherine Boyle
Source: CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102762123?__sour ... =102762123
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112617
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Sugar
by winston » Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:03 pm
Sugar far from sweet spot for investors
by Catherine Boyle
Source: CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102762123?__sour ... =102762123
by Catherine Boyle
Source: CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102762123?__sour ... =102762123
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112617
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Sugar
by behappyalways » Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:53 am
Sugar Exports From India Seen Doubling as Bumper Crop Looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... vest-looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... vest-looms
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42145
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: Sugar
by behappyalways » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:03 am
Forget gold, the sugar price collapse is far more dramatic - and here's why
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... psing.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... psing.html
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42145
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
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