What “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach is afraid of
Source: Bloomberg
http://thecrux.com/what-bond-king-jeffr ... -of-today/
Falling commodity prices are signs of China’s weakening economy, which will lead to more destabilizing devaluations of the yuan, Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday.
Moves by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates are fighting non-existent inflation and hurting gross domestic product growth, he said, adding that stocks are going to follow high-yield bonds down and low oil prices may lead to political instability.
“This is a capital-preservation market, not a money-making environment”
He reiterated his negative stance on junk bonds. Despite yielding 800 basis points more than Treasurys, “do not buy a junk bond index fund,” he advised: “You’re going to end up selling it at a loss as they get more and more populated with distressed energy and mining issues.”
Gundlach was just as bearish on emerging markets… “If you’re going to do something in emerging market equities, my recommendation is to short them,” said Gundlach. “They may fall a further 40%.”
The one exception is perhaps India. Gundlach remains a staunch bull on that particular country due to the massive growth in its labor force.
“When there’s blood in the streets, buy India,” he suggested. “Maybe you can buy it now if you have a really longtime horizon, but it may get caught in the broader emerging market sell-off.”
Interestingly, Gundlach was bearish on the U.S. dollar. “Once the Fed backs off its rhetoric, the dollar will [likewise] back down.”
The euro is likely to strengthen against the dollar as the probability the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs at its March meeting is virtually zero, and only 50 percent for the rest of the year, he said.
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