vested
Margin compressionGalaxy Entertainment Group’s (GEG) 4Q14 EBITDA was 4% below consensus estimates due to changes in the revenue mix, as growth in the
lower-margin VIP segment outpaced the higher-margin mass gaming segment in addition to higher operating costs.
The next catalysts for GEG’s share price are likely to come from newsflow on the table allocation for Galaxy Phase 2.
Given the new capacity, we expect GEG’s FY15 earnings to be more resilient than its competitors.
Maintain Add rating but reduce our FY15-16 EPS forecasts by 10-13% to factor in lower margins.
Our target price is also lowered by 10%, based on SOP, with 13x EV/EBITDA for Galaxy’s current operations and HK$7.06/share for Galaxy Phases 3-4.
Key highlights from 4Q14 results GEG achieved 4Q14 adjusted EBITDA of HK$2.7bn, (-25% yoy, -19% qoq).
The 25% yoy decline in GEG’s 4Q EBITDA was slightly better than the sector average of a 27% decline.
EBITDA margin for the quarter fell to 16.6% (-2.9% pts yoy, -2.3% pts qoq) as a result of negative operating leverage from weaker gaming revenue,
changes in revenue mix and higher operating costs.
Galaxy Macau’s 4Q VIP revenue rose 2% qoq but fell 10% yoy, although both metrics outpaced the overall sector’s VIP performance (-29% yoy, -2% qoq).
Galaxy Macau’s VIP revenue was relatively resilient due a new junket room coupled with strong relationships with tier 1 junkets.
GEG declared a special dividend of 28 HKcts per share. Including the previous two special dividends for 2014, GEG is expected to pay out HK$6bn in dividends for FY14, representing a payout ratio of 59% in FY14 compared to 29% in FY13.
Our main concerns
As a percentage of revenue, FY14 employee benefit expenses jumped to 7.8% (vs. 6.8% in FY13) and rose 25% yoy on an absolute basis
(vs. 10% growth in FY13). As we expect staff costs to continue increasing, we raise our employee expense forecasts (as a percentage of revenue)
from 7.2% to 8.5% in FY15 and from 7.5% to 9% in FY16.
Another concern is the table allocation for Phase 2.
Based on our channel checks, Galaxy Macau has not received any table allocation notification from the Macau government yet.
We believe that an allocation of less than 200 tables signals further headwinds in terms of restrictive policies in Macau, which could put pressure on GEG’s share price.
Source: CIMB
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/Res ... _Daily.pdf
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"