EUR 06 (Sep 12 - Dec 23)

[winston]

Euro/Dollar:

Tested the 20 day EMA on the low, bounced, holding the move over the early April peak.

Trading in the top half of the range after the big May bounce off the bottom of the range.

1.3644 versus 1.3664 versus 1.3601

Source: Investment House

[winston]

Time to Bet Against the Euro By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

"They are going to trash the euro," economist Gary Shilling said a couple weeks ago.

I agree with him…

Shilling is the only economist on Wall Street to have correctly predicted lower interest rates – for decades. He is certainly one of Wall Street's most independent thinkers. And he and I agree on the euro…

Specifically, Shilling said:

Mario Draghi, the head of The European Central Bank, came out and said what I was predicting, that they are going to trash the euro because they see it as a promoter of deflation, of which they are scared stiff. (The full interview with Shilling is here.)

The fastest and easiest way for Draghi to jumpstart Europe's economy would be to "trash the euro" – as Shilling said.

Draghi needs to act fast… So he has taken pages out of former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's playbook. Several years ago, Bernanke put unprecedented economic stimulus measures in place in the U.S. – cutting interest rates to zero and printing money. This caused stock prices (and other assets like real estate) in the U.S. to soar higher than anyone could imagine, and it appears that the U.S. is on solid footing.

Draghi is hoping for the same. He has cut interest rates below zero, stocks are up, and he hopes the economy will recover, too.

Draghi's plan is to "trash the euro." We will take what he's giving…

It's time for us to bet on a lower euro.

Fortunately, we have everything that we want to see in place today…

We saw a similar setup in 2009. In late 2009, the euro had been soaring. And traders were betting heavily on a higher euro. So in my True Wealth newsletter in 2009, we bet against the euro – we bought shares of the ProShares UltraShort Euro Fund (EUO). Subscribers pocketed a 31% gain in six months, when we sold.

Fast forward to one month ago… and the setup conditions were the same as they were in 2009.

Draghi's back was against the wall. He needed to weaken the euro. (Central bankers might not be good for much… but one thing they can do is weaken a currency if they set their minds to it!)

So in last month's issue of True Wealth, we bet on Draghi trashing the euro… we bet that what happened in 2009 will happen again… and we bought shares of EUO, again.

So far, so good. But Draghi is not done. There are more gains to come…

As I write, we have an uptrend in EUO. EUO is breaking out to highs not seen since early February of this year. It's looking good.

Thankfully, you can set this trade up in a high-reward, low-downside-risk way…

The lows for EUO are around $16.50 – which is not that far from today's price around $17.50. So you can easily set up a trade where your downside risk is $1.00 – but your upside potential is $3.00 or more – if you use a $16.50 stop loss.

EUO is a unique investment… It will give you a lot more upside than the currency itself, if I'm right about the euro.

Here's how it works: If the euro falls by 1% in a day, this fund will rise by 2%. The opposite is true as well – if the euro rises 1% in a day, this fund will fall by 2%. (A proper description for this type of fund would be to call it an "inverse 2x fund.")

In short, Draghi is going to "trash" the euro. And EUO is an easy way to profit as he does. Check it out…

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Europe's currency is breaking down… the euro sinks to a five-month low

[winston]

Europe's downtrend continues as the euro sinks to its lowest level since November.

[winston]

The One Obvious Trade Right Now By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Europe's currency – the euro – is going down…

The reasoning is simple.

A weaker euro is politically the easiest fix available…

You see, Europe is struggling right now. But inflation is not a problem. So a weaker currency is an easy fix. And that is the exact solution that Europe is pursuing today.

If you haven't taken advantage of this situation yet, there's an easy way to do it through your regular brokerage account.

Let me explain exactly what's happening, and how to trade it.

From The Wall Street Journal last week:

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled Thursday he was pleased with the recent decline in the euro's exchange rate and outlined a number of forces that may weaken it further…

Mr. Draghi, according to the article, made "unusually blunt comments about exchange rates. Central bankers typically shy away from such direct remarks on currencies."

Government officials might be incompetent at a lot of things… But one thing they can do very well is "trash" their currencies. And the euro is in the midst of its trashing. Draghi isn't even trying to hide it.

Two months ago in DailyWealth, I explained exactly how to make this trade, through an exchange-traded fund – the ProShares UltraShort Euro Fund (EUO).

I wouldn't change a word of it today. Please read it:

As I write, we have an uptrend in EUO. EUO is breaking out to highs not seen since early February of this year. It's looking good.

Thankfully, you can set this trade up in a high-reward, low-downside-risk way…

EUO is a unique investment… It will give you a lot more upside than the currency itself, if I'm right about the euro.

Here's how it works: If the euro falls by 1% in a day, this fund will rise by 2%. The opposite is true as well – if the euro rises 1% in a day, this fund will fall by 2%. (A proper description for this type of fund would be to call it an "inverse 2x fund.")

In short, Draghi is going to "trash" the euro. And EUO is an easy way to profit as he does.

I wrote that two months ago. The picture has only gotten clearer since then. Draghi is closer to unleashing a QE-style stimulus in Europe. He's willing to do anything to continue to "trash" to euro. But the euro hasn't moved that much – yet.

Europe's politicians want a weaker euro. They will get it. And you can profit from it, by buying EUO – an inverse fund.

I suggest getting on board today…

Source: www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

The euro is stuck in a downtrend… Europe's currency sinks to a nine-month low.

[iam802]

EUR/USD

1. Bearish; weekly support in place
2. Scotland's vote coming up
3. Trading idea: Buy for rebound (life goes on regardless) or short after rebound (continuous weak sentiment on UK)

[winston]

It's Time to Take Profits if You're Short the Euro By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

In June, I told you the euro was about to be "trashed."

The trade lined up perfectly.

Normally, major currencies like the euro don't have big moves against the dollar. But if you took my specific advice, you should be sitting on a 9% gain today.

Now it's time to lock in that gain.

Let me explain…

Our thesis for betting on a lower euro was simple…

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's mission is to boost the European economy. And much like Ben Bernanke a few years before him, his best plan of action was to cut interest rates and print money… "trashing" the euro in the process. Here's what I wrote back then…

Draghi needs to act fast… So he has taken pages out of former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's playbook.

He has cut interest rates below zero, stocks are up, and he hopes the economy will recover, too.

Draghi's plan is to "trash the euro." We will take what he's giving…

It's time for us to bet on a lower euro.

In addition, at that time, investors all thought the euro would continue higher. Specifically, "Trader Optimism" was at multiyear highs (as measured by my friend Jason Geopfert of SentimenTrader.com).

The contrarian bet was on a lower euro. We made that trade, with leverage, with the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO).

EUO is up 9% in the three months since then. And now it's time to close the trade.

Why? In just three months, the entire story has changed.

The euro has gone from extreme optimism (which made us want to bet on a lower euro), to extreme pessimism now.

You can see this in the chart below. It shows the Commitment of Traders on the euro. Check it out…

The Commitment of Traders – or COT – is a weekly report that shows the real-money bets of futures traders. When the COT shows traders are all betting on lower prices, the euro tends to bounce. That's exactly where we are today.

Sure, the euro could fall a bit more from here… But sentiment in the euro is now at a negative extreme – exactly opposite of where we entered the trade. And that shows that we've already made the easy gains. There's no low-hanging fruit left here.

The best thing to do now is to lock in profits. So that's what we'll do.

Shares of EUO are up 9% in just three months. Take it!

Source: www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

Europe's currency continues its plunge… the euro falls to its lowest level in over a year.

[winston]

Why Japan's Big Move Means the Euro Is Going Lower By Justice "Jack Sparrow" Litle

Last week, the Bank of Japan announced an incredible monetary stimulus plan.

It sent Japanese stocks to seven-year highs… and it sent Japan's currency, the yen, to multiyear lows.

The Bank of Japan is dead set on creating inflation and stimulating its economy. And although you're not hearing it in the mainstream press, this is big news for Europe. Here's why…

Japan and Germany are direct competitors in high-end manufacturing exports. They are the big dogs of selling high-dollar, high-tech machinery and equipment to the rest of the world.

With Japan taking steps to dramatically weaken its currency, Team Japan just got a big leg up against Team Germany in a very high-stakes game. A weaker currency means Japan's manufactured products will be cheaper than Germany's manufactured products.

That means the German economy is going to take another hard whack as markets favor Japan's cheaper manufactured products… even as the global economy is already slowing…

Eventually, and perhaps sooner rather than later, Europe is going to be FORCED to do what Japan did.

The European Central Bank will be FORCED to go nuclear in efforts to stimulate the moribund eurozone and weaken the euro (to help make eurozone exports more competitive).

And when we say FORCED, we are talking loaded-gun-to-the-head type of forced. Ignore reality long enough, and it doesn't just tap you on the shoulder… it hospitalizes you or kills you.

It does not matter how much Germany hates it. The longer that Europe waits to take stimulative-crisis measures, the worse the situation becomes. And now the time table has been sped up by Japan.

A too-strong euro as the eurozone slips into deflation is a bigger and bigger liability by the day. This means the European Central Bank has no choice but to forcefully devalue the euro.

The mainstream press isn't reporting it… but Japan's devaluation efforts will force Europe to do the same. That means the euro is going lower.

Source: Mercenary Trader