Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 25)

[winston]

The Two Faces of Coal

By Robert Rapier

Source: Investing Daily

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/08 ... s-of-coal/

[winston]

The Two Faces of Coal

By Robert Rapier

Source: Investing Daily

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/08 ... s-of-coal/

[winston]

MS: Weak coal price is structural; industry outlook not attractive
2014/08/06

In light of the structural change of coal demand in Mainland China, it is expected that coal prices will remain weak, and coal stocks will find it hard to ourperform the broad market, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

The research house reduced the demand forecast, predicting coal price to drop 10% and 4% yearly in 2014 and 2015 respectively; meanwhile, its outlook on the industry has downgraded from Attractive to Equalweight.

Despite the dim industry outlook, the bank held that the current prices of coal stocks have reflected the sluggish margin estimates.

CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $79.98M; Ratio 20.506% was chosen as the industry top pick for its attractive valuation. Its target price was cut from $30 to 27 and the Overweight rating was unchanged.

CHINA COAL (01898.HK) -0.010 (-0.204%) Short selling $50.67M; Ratio 31.199% 's rating was downgraded from Overweight to Equalweight, with target price cut from $6.1 to $4.6. (Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2014-08-06 16:25.)


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Beijing cuts coal use 7pc in smog fight

Beijing cut total coal consumption by 7 percent in the first half of 2014 as part of its efforts to tackle smog, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing data from its environmental protection bureau.

Beijing is at the frontline of a "war on pollution" declared by the central government earlier this year in an attempt to head off public unrest about the growing environmental costs of economic development.

The city has already started to close or relocate hundreds of factories and industrial plants.

It will also raise vehicle fuel standards.

To reduce coal consumption, it is in the process of shutting down all of its aging coal-fired power plants and replacing them with cleaner natural gas-fired capacity or with power delivered via the grid.

Based on last year's coal consumption level of 19 million tonnes, the 7 percent cut would amount to around 1.33 million tonnes per year.

The Beijing environmental bureau said the city had cut total sulphur dioxide emissions by 5.43 percent over the first six months of the year.

Previous data showed that concentrations of hazardous airborne particles known as PM2.5 in Beijing stood at 91.6 micrograms per cubic meter in the first half of the year, down 11.2 percent year on year but still more than twice as high as the recommended national standard.

Source: REUTERS

[winston]

The best time to buy commodities is when this happens… and it’s happening all over the world right now

The best time to buy commodities is when most producers are losing money.

Such unprofitable periods reliably mark cyclical lows in metals and energy. Because when no one is breaking even, production will inevitably decline − putting supply and demand back in line. And setting the stage for a price rebound.

We’re seeing this happen in a number of sectors today. Including gold and uranium.

But the most acute example is coming from one particularly commodity: coal.

And the government of the world’s top coal producer, China, last week started making some big moves to fix the situation, according to Platts. Tacitly admitting that the industry is a complete bust right now in terms of profits.

The developments came from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Who met to discuss problems facing the Chinese coal sector of late.

Following the get-together, sources on the scene reported that the NDRC is planning some policy changes. Which are likely to include major steps to get the coal business (and prices) headed back in the right direction.

One of the major shifts will reportedly be a cut in coal production from the country’s largest miners. With the 14 largest firms expected to be told to curb 10% of their output.

That would be a significant figure. Amounting to a reduction of 48 million tonnes of annual supply.

Such a cut would certainly help in improving prices across the Chinese coal market. But the larger question for international investors is − what effect will it have on coal imports?

The answer isn’t immediately clear. With reports suggesting that NDRC may also implement controls on imports − aimed at discouraging foreign supply coming into the country.

But such a complete ban on coal imports could run afoul of World Trade Organization rules. Leading some analysts to suggest the Chinese government will circumvent this issue by simply banning low-quality coal imports. A measure that has been discussed for some time here.

That would be bad news for Indonesian coal exporters − who are the major supplier of lower-quality coal into China. But could be a boost for other exporters like Australia and the U.S. Who would no longer have to compete with the explosive supply growth that’s come out of Indonesia the last few years.

We’ll see what the final result is. In any case, it appears something has got to give in the coal space.


Source: Pierce Points

[winston]

Why King Coal is Bigger than Oil or Gas

Lost in the debate about exporting U.S. oil and natural gas is any mention of America’s greatest energy export.

Coal.

And while legislators, corporations, environmentalists and others argue over pipelines, refineries, tariffs and trade agreements in the oil and natural gas industries, the U.S. sends tons of coal to eager customers all over the globe.

Coal usage is at a 45-year peak, and Europe and Asia will take every ounce we can export

Source: Money Morning

http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2014/08 ... /#deeplink

[winston]

Why King Coal is Bigger than Oil or Gas

Lost in the debate about exporting U.S. oil and natural gas is any mention of America’s greatest energy export.

Coal.

And while legislators, corporations, environmentalists and others argue over pipelines, refineries, tariffs and trade agreements in the oil and natural gas industries, the U.S. sends tons of coal to eager customers all over the globe.

Coal usage is at a 45-year peak, and Europe and Asia will take every ounce we can export

Source: Money Morning

http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2014/08 ... /#deeplink

[winston]

Beaten-up coal sector starts to break out… coal-miner fund KOL jumps to its highest level since December

[winston]

Think coal's days are numbered? Read this and be amazed ...

by Matt Smith

Source: OilPrice.com

http://thecrux.com/think-coal-is-a-fuel ... be-amazed/

[winston]

China Bid to Curb Coal Output Seen Lifting Prices by 10%

Cutting production at the largest mining companies in China is on track to do what government officials are hoping: boost coal prices and help shore up the struggling industry.

That’s the conclusion of ICIS-C1 Energy, a consulting company in Shanghai, which predicts coal prices may advance 10 percent in the fourth quarter because of the output reduction and government plans to ban shipments of lower-quality cargoes from overseas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-1 ... y-10-.html