Thai Beverage

[winston]

not vested

We upgrade THBEV’s earnings in 2014-15E by 8% and 5%, respectively, with the revised SOTP-based target price of SGD0.68, vs. SGD0.66 previously, after THBEV’s earnings in 2013 were higher than expected.

We maintain our BUY call for THBEV owing to the bright earnings prospect with upside potential on synergy from FNN.


Source: KT-Zmico

[winston]

Thai Beverage PLC: Likely to ride through Thai unrests

We maintain our view that the current political unrest’s impact on Thai Beverage PLC (ThaiBev) be only a slight dent on near-term revenue growth (5.2% in FY14F; 6.3% in FY15F) unless the protest ground widens beyond Bangkok.

First, the political unrest is mainly limited to Bangkok, whereas ThaiBev’s sales takes place in every province in Thailand.

Second, ThaiBev’s defensive alcoholic portfolio will provide shelter against economic contraction triggered by political uncertainty.

Third, proportional accounting (vs. current equity accounting) of F&N and FCL revenues would reduce ThaiBev’s underlying exposure to Thailand by an estimated 12.6ppt to 83.6% based on 1Q14 figures.

Historically during FY08-FY13 where political unrests are the norm, spirits segment’s revenue consistently grew by 7.3%-16.6%, thereby displaying growth resilience.

We re-iterate BUY with S$0.74 fair value estimate.


Source: OCBC

[behappyalways]

Is Thai Bev’s Charoen unimpressed with his own company’s growth prospects?
http://sbr.com.sg/food-beverage/news/th ... -prospects

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev braces for sharp growth slowdown after three beer brands flop
http://sbr.com.sg/food-beverage/news/th ... rands-flop

[winston]

not vested

Thai Beverage: Impacted by broader concerns over Thai King's health condition

The latest statement that was released on the health condition of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej revealed that the king's health has 'not stabilised'.

Amid such fears, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index continued its decline and fell 2.5% yesterday while Thai Beverage's share price was down 5.7% to S$0.91.

Near term sentiment may remain hit by the uncertainties around potential repercussions for Thailand. Nonetheless, we believe the long term fundamentals of Thai Beverage remains strong.

During times of political turmoil, we recall that its Spirits segment was still able to show resilience in earnings, while we believe the Beer segment would remain a key growth driver for the group ahead.

We have a HOLD rating and S$1.01 fair value estimate; while we advocate longer term investors to consider accumulating at current price levels.

Source: OCBC

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev's Tipsy Valuation
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... -investors

[winston]

not vested

Thai Beverage: Results met our expectations

Thai Beverage’s FY16 results met expectations as revenue of THB139.2b and PATMI of THB18.9b met 97% and 100% of our estimates.

Due to a change in financial year end from 31 Dec to 30 Sep, FY16 is comprised of 9MCY16.

Thus comparing the first nine months period of both years, FY16 revenue was 14.8% higher to THB139.2b and excluding the THB3.8b gain from disposal recorded last year, core net profit rose 14.3% to THB19.0b.

By segment, the Spirits business largely maintained its profits at THB14.5b while Beer’s net profit rose 281% to THB2.8b on the back of increased sales volume and lower raw material costs.

Excluding the one-off gain last year, Non-Alcoholic Beverages also saw a smaller net loss.

We maintain our HOLD with fair value estimate of S$1.01, pending an analyst briefing later today.

Separately, the group has announced a final dividend of THB0.40/share, bringing total DPS to THB0.60 (vs. THB0.61 last year), representing a payout of 80%.

Source: OCBC

[behappyalways]

Thai Beverage posts 28% rise in 1Q earnings to $313 mil
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/articl ... gs-313-mil

[behappyalways]

ThaiBev 1H earnings fall 1.8% to $580 mil
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/thaibe ... 18-580-mil

[behappyalways]

thai-beverage-acquire-kfc-stores-thailand-462-mil
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/thai-b ... nd-462-mil