HK - Market Direction 01 (Jan 12 - Jul 15)

[winston]

Dr Check had set 20,500 to 21,000 as a level for a Hang Seng Index rebound. It closed at 21,269 yesterday - not far from where it should start to recover.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

Ahead of China's policy meeting starting on March 3, Dr Check is in no hurry to add Hong Kong shares to his portfolio.

Source: The Standard HK

[behappyalways]

Barton's Global Market Trends
https://www.facebook.com/bartonsglobal/ ... =1&theater

[winston]

Focus on very best

A bullish stock market needs liquidity and investor confidence. Unfortunately, both are lacking now.

In 2008, an unprecedented financial crisis compelled Beijing to launch a huge stimulus package.

Mainland banks were ordered to lend aggressively to state enterprises and local governments. New projects sprouted up everywhere. But many schemes, after getting off the ground, found it difficult to secure further financing from banks.

So the nation's shadow banking sector expanded. By the beginning of this year, authorities realized they had to control the expansion of these new unregulated and innovative financing tools including trust loans, wealth management products and internet deposits.

Now credit has tightened. Gone are aggressive state plans to stimulate fixed- asset investments. Even China's trade data is discouraging.

Many are not convinced that the Chinese economy can primarily be led by domestic consumption.

So fund managers can't figure out what kind of stocks they should buy.

What we can do is focus on some relatively safe and defensive shares of firms that have consistently paid dividends and are involved in an easy- to-understand business.

If a few fund managers have the same idea, they can easily hold most of the shares that have fared well recently.

As long as their funds perform better than the benchmark - in our case the Hang Seng Index - redemptions are likely to be modest.


Source: Dr Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

Stocks face selling pressure

Hong Kong stocks may see further selling pressure due to economic uncertainty in the mainland, where demand in the crucial property sector is slowing.

The Hang Seng Index, which fell 1.3 percent to 21,976 on Monday, is likely to dip to 21,500 today and may even slip to 21,000 by June, analysts said.

"I see no technical support. The three blue-chip companies HSBC Holdings (0005), China Mobile (0941) and Tencent (0700) - have all performed weakly," said GEO Securities chief Francis Lun Sheung-nim. Lun said the bubble has burst in the mainland property sector and so he expects shares of mainland developers will keep falling.

Weak manufacturing data from China plus its central bank draining liquidity from the market makes Kingston Securities research director Dickie Wong pessimistic. He advised investors to sell should the market rebound today.


http://thecrux.com/forget-home-equity-l ... -cash-now/

[winston]

In Hong Kong, as most of the bear knockout warrants will have a knockout point at around 23,500 - any short squeeze under thin volume is possible.

[winston]

Goldman Sachs updated top picks in HK as follows:

Stock / Investment Rating / 12-month Upside Potential

AIA (01299.HK) +0.400 (1.035%) Short selling $18.47M; Ratio 6.258% / Conviction Buy / 12%
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) -1.450 (2.668%) Short selling $39.85M; Ratio 5.166% / Buy / 28%
HUTCHISON (00013.HK) +2.000 (1.934%) Short selling $43.76M; Ratio 15.012% / Conviction Buy / 17%
BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) +0.150 (0.648%) Short selling $885.80K; Ratio 0.391% / Conviction Buy / 23%
HKEX (00388.HK) +1.500 (1.035%) Short selling $46.72M; Ratio 10.295% / Buy / 9%
SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $1.83M; Ratio 6.651% / Conviction Buy / 23%
YUE YUEN IND (00551.HK) +0.200 (0.825%) Short selling $5.82M; Ratio 39.242% / Buy 13%


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Chartists may tell you the HSI has fared well as it has risen above April's high of 23,224.

This same comment applied in April when the index rose above February's high of 22,986. But it slumped 1,700 points to 21,137 two weeks later.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

DBS latest High Conviction Stock Picks of HK stocks (Table)

DBS Bank released an Asia-Pacific Strategy Report in which the bank listed the High Conviction Stock Picks. Those listed in Hong Kong are as follows.

Stock / Target Price (HK$)
ABC (01288.HK) / $4.61
ANHUI CONCH (00914.HK) / $36.75
CHINA RAIL CONS (01186.HK) / $8.8
COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK) / $5.99
GAC GROUP (02238.HK) / $10.3
LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK) / $10.8
SHIMAO PROPERTY (00813.HK) / $25.83
ZTE (00763.HK) / $22
DCH HOLDINGS (01828.HK) / $6.6
SOUND GLOBAL (00967.HK) / $9.78


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Standard Chartered selects the following in the HK Portfolio:

HUTCHISON (00013.HK) -0.800 (0.761%) Short selling $30.35M; Ratio 15.521%
AIA (01299.HK) -0.650 (1.650%) Short selling $22.71M; Ratio 9.541%
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) -1.050 (1.950%) Short selling $89.03M; Ratio 15.728%
WHARF HOLDINGS (00004.HK) -1.250 (2.168%) Short selling $27.28M; Ratio 9.397%
MGM CHINA (02282.HK) -0.550 (2.259%) Short selling $12.08M; Ratio 11.409%
LI & FUNG (00494.HK) -0.080 (0.714%) Short selling $26.11M; Ratio 20.481%
CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $3.38M; Ratio 16.478%
TECHTRONIC IND (00669.HK) +0.100 (0.417%) Short selling $1.24M; Ratio 2.313%
OOIL (00316.HK) -0.800 (1.912%) Short selling $710.18K; Ratio 8.232%

The Bank chose the following into the Old Economy Portfolio which can potentially benefit from the central easing policies.

BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $331.63M; Ratio 32.656%
CNOOC (00883.HK) +0.100 (0.719%) Short selling $63.92M; Ratio 11.438%
PING AN (02318.HK) -0.600 (0.969%) Short selling $57.31M; Ratio 7.414%
MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) -0.060 (0.840%) Short selling $107.13M; Ratio 14.312%
CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK) -0.010 (0.259%) Short selling $4.93M; Ratio 4.791%
HAITONG SEC (06837.HK) -0.100 (0.822%) Short selling $3.35M; Ratio 6.950%
GREATWALL MOTOR (02333.HK) -0.300 (0.984%) Short selling $70.47M; Ratio 47.816%
CHINA RAIL CONS (01186.HK) -0.030 (0.437%) Short selling $2.45M; Ratio 16.409%
BELLE INT'L (01880.HK) +0.190 (2.372%) Short selling $60.24M; Ratio 21.574%
WEICHAI POWER (02338.HK) -0.450 (1.454%) Short selling $78.79M; Ratio 44.594%
CHALCO (02600.HK) -0.030 (1.053%) Short selling $4.74M; Ratio 21.267%
ANGANG STEEL (00347.HK) -0.030 (0.620%) Short selling $13.17M; Ratio 30.875%
ND PAPER (02689.HK) +0.020 (0.370%) Short selling $5.96M; Ratio 33.274%
CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK) -0.080 (3.239%) Short selling $1.46M; Ratio 7.774%


Source: AAStocks Financial News