Sing Holdings

[behappyalways]

(No $800psf no sell.......^^)

ECs (The Latest Five ECs)

Update: The Forestville September 2013
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 372
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: 733
Units sold in the month: 27
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 281
Total Number of Units: 653


Update: Twin Fountains September 2013
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 345
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: 745
Units sold in the month: 6
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 73
Total Number of Units: 418


Update: Ecopolitan September 2013
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 348
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: 806
Units sold in the month: 14
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 164
Total Number of Units: 512


Update: Lush Acres September 2013
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 333
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: 794
Units sold in the month: 24
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 47
Total Number of Units: 380


Update: Sea Horizon September 2013
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 317
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: 818
Units sold in the month: 317
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 178
Total Number of Units: 495

[ichew]

just adding on to the notes here

as at 3Q13,
num of sh = 400.995m
devlpt ppty = 387.552m
cash = 100.157m => S$ 0.249
debt = 355.32m
equity = 267.498m
d/e = 1.328

nav = 56.39c
FY12 eps = 10.26c
9M13 eps = 7.33c
"Whilst the Group expects to be profitable for FY2013, the next quarter is expected to be loss-making"
=> so i am gg to assume FY13 eps gg to be 30% less YoY at 7c
and same div of 1.6c or 4% yield

---------------------
1) the Laurels 700m rev fully recog
cash now part of trade rcvables
3Q13 balance sheet:
cash to be recog = trade rcvables = 160.536m
current liab = 121.26m
net cash within nxt 12mth =¬ 39.41m or $0.098

2) Robin Drive project ($0.11 per sh)
they bgt freehold robin drive/robin road land for S$ 176.99m
this is a good site. 200m from steven mrt.
land area = 88,748.4 sq ft
gfa = 136,672.5 sq ft
land cost = S$1295 psf
construction costs = S$450-500 psf
b/even abt S$ 1800 psf
currently tat area selling for abt 2200-2500 psf
(robin suites 2500 psf, cyan 2200-2300 psf)
assume 2200psf, so net profit 400 psf or 54.67m or $0.136 per sh
minus 17% corporate tax = $0.113 per sh

what if can only sell at 2000psf?
means abt half of above profit Sad
net profit at 200psf = 0.0564

need to complete by 2016 else penalty
estimate rev recog from 3Q14 to 1Q15
cash in only after 2016 TOP?

3) Waterwoods EC ($0.106 per sh)
they tendered to build an EC at punggol - coral edge
on 06-de-13, tendered 162.1m for 42,921 sq m
70% theirs, 30% UE E&C (which is another good div stk)

gfa = 42,921 sq m = 462,173 sq ft
land cost = S$350 psf
construction cost = 111.2m or 240.6 psf
assuming sell S$750psf, net profit = S$ 159.39 psf or 73.6m
their 70% stake = 51.57m or 0.128 per sh
minus 17% corporate tax = $0.106 per sh

Since it is an EC, revenue recognition will only happen on TOP date which is expected to be 31 March 2017

so total cash expected in nxt 3yrs = 1+2+3= 0.317
discount 3yr at 3% = 0.317 / (1+0.03)^3 = 0.29
assume mgt r paid 18m over nxt 3 yrs, left 0.20
add current cash of 0.249 gives $0.449 cash

so buy now at 0.40 means i get to own a ppty biz worth abt 0.45 cash in 3yrs time + some bizTech ppty worth est 7c for free
hope i wasnt being overly "prudent" by the 3% discount + 17% tax + 18m exec pay
what u guys think ?

[behappyalways]

Just to add.....

1. Waterwoods you missed out on the 10% balcony space..... so GFA around 500,000 sf.

2. They have started construction of Robin since Jul 2013 abet slowly while waiting for the plot ratio. So with the plot ratio at 1.4 I think they will be launching it in 1Q2014 (I think they will launch it asap and they need some time to do the show flat) and recognition of revenue will start from 1Q2014 since construction is already ongoing.

Honestly they have too much cash now.....net debt to equity is 0.9 and around $100m coming in 4Q2013, the ratio will drop to 0.5......and they will still get around $100m from the remaining The Laurels project alone, the Waterwoods and also from Robin when it is launch........either they have to buy a few sizeable plots of land if not they have to do capital reduction.

[behappyalways]

146 units out of 373 units sold
http://www.executivecondominium.sg/WaterWoods.html

[Jordankbl]

Good morning Behappyalways san and All here.

Why are you leaving VB?

[behappyalways]

I think information based and less opinion based forum is better.. less talk and more readings

Good morning Behappyalways san and All here.

Why are you leaving VB?

[behappyalways]

Coming in to support. Let's see how much stocks the sellers got. I expect higher dividend this year. Today there is a small parcel for sale. Let's see if they bid.

[behappyalways]

LAND PARCEL AT GEYLANG EAST AVENUE 1
http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne ... 4-06a.ashx

with the failed attempt, there isn't any interest plot for Sing Holdings to tender in the next few months....either they are EC or the size of the plot is too big........let's see how the management going to manage the cash hoard esp with incoming cashflow for Laurels, Waterwoods and Robin Residences.....

[behappyalways]

coming land tenders are either EC(I doubt Sing Holdings will be interested with the new EC measures) or land parcel too big......
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends-an ... land-sales

so they will be piling on cash........As of 30/09/2013, $100m cash and $160m trade receivables......

LAND PARCEL AT GEYLANG EAST AVENUE 1
http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne ... 4-06a.ashx

with the failed attempt, there isn't any interest plot for Sing Holdings to tender in the next few months....either they are EC or the size of the plot is too big........let's see how the management going to manage the cash hoard esp with incoming cashflow for Laurels, Waterwoods and Robin Residences.....

[behappyalways]

Coming in to support. Let's see how much stocks the sellers got. I expect higher dividend this year. Today there is a small parcel for sale. Let's see if they bid.

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-23-page-89.html

yesterday sellers were merrill lynch(78) with a few lots from OCBC. Today sellers from Merrill lynch and UBS(47) and Fraser Securities....

78 and 47 are trying to push it down....I doubt they have so many shares since they have been selling for some time.....hope they borrow scripts from me....