Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 15, 2013:-



Buy the Dips ?

It's now the middle of September and I'm still cautious.

However, I'm not expecting a plunge as there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for a good rentry point.

Therefore, I have been buying over the past few weeks.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$108.60 from US$110.23 last week from US$107.76 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1328 from US$1389 last week from US$1396 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.28 from US$23.86 last week from US$23.44 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.23 from US$3.26 last week from US$3.23 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1688 from 1655 last week from 1633 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22915 from 22621 last week from 21731 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2236 from 2140 last week from 2098 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3120 from 3048 last week from 3029 the previous week. Bought Sabana REIT & JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14405 from 13861 last week from 13389 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.66 from 99.11 last week from 98.17 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5925 from 2.6132 last week from 2.5773 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9244 from 0.9187 last week from 0.8902 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1730 from 1.1702 last week from 1.1345 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.329 from 1.318 last week from 1.322 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7542 from 7.7557 last week from 7.7555 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.45 from 82.15 last week from 82.09 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.58% from 4.50% last week from 4.40% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.59% from 4.54% last week from 4.46% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.88% from 2.93% last week from 2.78% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$61b from HK$52b last week from HK$55b lthe previous week.

2. Sentiment - Cautiously Optimistic ?

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Buying or Selling Opportunity ?

6. Properties - CLSA sees Hong Kong property prices falling 15pc by end of 2014

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Too Dangerous

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Sep 22, 2013:-





3Q Window Dressing

3Q Window Dressing activities should be kicking in next week.

And with the discussions on tapering and Syria fading into the background, the focus may be back to the US Deficit and Budget debates.

Intuitively, it may be safe for another week.

So is not a good time then, to be selling into the expected rally next week ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off


1. Oil - Lower. US$104.70 from US$108.60 last week from US$110.23 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1326 from US$1328 last week from US$1389 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.80 from US$22.28 last week from US$23.86 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.31 from US$3.23 last week from US$3.26 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1710 from 1688 last week from 1655 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23503 from 22915 last week from 22621 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2192 from 2236 last week from 2140 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3238 from 3120 last week from 3048 the previous week. Bought Hutch Port, Soilbuld Reit, and Fraser Comm; Sold Suntec Reit, Keppel Reit & JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14742 from 14405 last week from 13861 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 99.35 from 99.66 last week from 99.11 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5286 from 2.5925 last week from 2.6132 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9394 from 0.9244 last week from 0.9187 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1757 from 1.1730 last week from 1.1702 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3526 from 1.329 last week from 1.318 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7532 from 7.7542 last week from 7.7557 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.43 from 81.45 last week from 82.15 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.29% from 4.58% last week from 4.50% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.30% from 4.59% last week from 4.54% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.73% from 2.88% last week from 2.93% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$58b from HK$61b last week from HK$52b lthe previous week.

2. Sentiment - Optimistic

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you really know where the risks are ?

6. Properties - Grinding lower ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 29, 2013:-



US Government Shutdown ?

Do you really think that there would be an extended shutdown of the US government ?

And so what, if they cant meet the deadline and have to shutdown for a few weeks ?

Would it be really the end of the world ? Weren't those good buying opportunities in the past ?

And tomorrow is the last day for Window Dressing and thereafter, there would be new money coming in from a new month as well.

Under these circumstances, what would you be doing ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed


1. Oil - Lower. US$102.81 from US$104.70 last week from US$108.60 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1336 from US$1326 last week from US$1328 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.77 from US$21.80 last week from US$22.28 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.32 from US$3.31 last week from US$3.23 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1692 from 1710 last week from 1688 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23207 from 23503 last week from 22915 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2160 from 2192 flast week rom 2236 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3210 from 3238 last week from 3120 the previous week. Bought JMH & JSH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14760 from 14742 last week from 14405 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 98.27 from 99.35 last week from 99.66 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5705 from 2.5286 last week from 2.5925 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9318 from 0.9394 last week from 0.9244 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1703 from 1.1757 last week from 1.1730 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3523 from 1.3526 last week from 1.329 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7544 from 7.7532 last week from 7.7542 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.27 from 80.43 last week from 81.45 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.42% from 4.29% last week from 4.58% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.36% from 4.30% last week from 4.59% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.62% from 2.73% last week from 2.88% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Flat; HK$58b from HK$58b last week from HK$61b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How's your Asset Allocation ?

6. Properties -
a. HK new home sales during the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival break were just one-eighth those of last year
b. HK office rents in most areas were flat or rose modestly in the second quarter this year


7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 06, 2013:-



Buy, Sell or Hold ?

Now that the market is weak and correcting, is it time to buy, sell or hold ?

Just two weeks ago. everyone was waiting for a chance to buy on the dip.

Now that the dip is here, everyone is hesitating and hoping for a bigger dip.

Yesterday, one of my friends who dont really follow the markets, was talking about tapering.

Another young inexperienced guy was talking about how the US economy will collapse on their debt level and that would bring Asia down with them.

These are contrarian signs to buy on the dip.

If you are feeling frightened, that would be a better sign to buy.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$103.70 from US$102.81 last week from US$104.70 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1311 from US$1336 last week from US$1326 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.74 from US$21.77 last week from US$21.80 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.30 from US$3.32 last week from US$3.31 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1691 from 1692 last week from 1710 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23139 from 23207 last week from 23503 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2175 from 2160 last week from 2192 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3138 from 3210 last week from 3238 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14024 from 14760 last week from 14742 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 97.47 from 98.27 last week from 99.35 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5544 from 2.5705 last week from 2.5286 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9437 from 0.9318 last week from 0.9394 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1758 from 1.1703 last week from 1.1757 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3558 from 1.3523 last week from 1.3526 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Flat 7.7545 from 7.7544 last week from 7.7532 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.13 from 80.27 last week from 80.43 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.30% from 4.42% last week from 4.29% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.21% from 4.36% last week from 4.30% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.64 % from 2.62% last week from 2.73% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower; HK$53b from HK$58b last week from HK$58b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Are you buying on the dip or waiting to sell on the technical rebound ?

6. Properties - How's the bid ask gap on the property that you are looking at ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[profittaker]

I think the bull should let go and let market drop a bit.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct13 2013:-



Confused ?

Just when you are so sure that the market wll plunge due to the deficit discussion, the market turnaround.

Do you really know what's going on ?

Do you really think that you can beat this type of volatile market ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-off

1. Oil - Lower. US$101.74 from US$103.70 last week from US$102.81 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1273 from US$1311 last week from US$1336 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.33 from US$21.74 last week from US$21.77 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.27 from US$3.30 last week from US$3.32 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1703 from 1691 last week from 1692 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23218 from 23139 last week from 23207 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2228 from 2175 last week from 2160 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3180 from 3138 last week from 3210 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14405 from 14024 last week from 14760 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 98.59 from 97.47 last week from 98.27 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5522 from 2.5544 last week from 2.5705 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9465 from 0.9437 last week from 0.9318 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1793 from 1.1758 last week from 1.1703 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3546 from 1.3558 last week from 1.3523 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7543 from 7.7545 last week from 7.7544 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.36 from 80.13 last week from 80.27 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.28% from 4.30% last week from 4.42% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.29% from 4.21% last week from 4.36% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.69% from 2.64 % last week from 2.62% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$55b from HK$53b last week from HK$58b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How's your Cash level ?

6. Spore Properties - According to property consultancy firm Savills Singapore, the total value of transactions dropped by 45 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2012.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 20, 2013:-



US Earning Season

It's US Earnings season again.

So will it be a strong enough catalyst to keep the market going ?

Or would the market be selling into the strength as the US Budget Deficis discussion are now in the background for a while ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-on

1. Oil - Lower. US$100.86 from US$101.74 last week from US$103.70 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1316 from US$1273 last week from US$1311 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21.94 from US$21.33 last week from US$21.74 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.29 from US$3.27 last week from US$3.30 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1745 from 1703 last week from 1691 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23340 from 23218 last week from 23139 the previous week. Bought China Silver.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2194 from 2228 last week from 2175 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3193 from 3180 last week from 3138 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14562 from 14405 last week from 14024 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 97.79 from 98.59 last week from 97.47 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5479 from 2.5522 last week from 2.5544 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9675 from 0.9465 last week from 0.9437 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1986 from 1.1793 last week from 1.1758 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3686 from 1.3546 last week from 1.3558 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7533 from 7.7543 last week from 7.7545 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.65 from 80.36 last week from 80.13 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.17% from 4.28% last week from 4.30% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.26% from 4.29% last week from 4.21% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.58% from 2.69% last week from 2.64% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$58b from HK$55b last week from HK$53b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - So what else is there to worry about ?

6. Spore Properties - All the experts are saying that properties in HK and Spore will correct, yet they are quite satable.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 27, 2013:-



Up, Down or Sideways ?

US Earnings season is now in full swing.

And till date, it has not been negative for the market despite the poor revenue numbers.

Tapering is also now out of discussions for a few months.

In view of the above, shouldn't the market be heading higher since the "experts" were also underweight over the past few months and they have to now catch up before the year-end window dressing ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$97.90 from US$100.86 last week from US$101.74 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1352 from US$1316 last week from US$1273 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.59 from US$21.94 last week from US$21.33 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.27 from US$3.29 last week from US$3.27 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1760 from 1745 last week from 1703 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22698 from 23340 last week from 23218 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2132 from 2194 last week from 2228 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3205 from 3193 last week from 3180 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14088 from 14562 last week from 14405 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 97.40 from 97.79 last week from 98.59 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5519 from 2.5479 last week from 2.5522 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9585 from 0.9675 last week from 0.9465 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1857 from 1.1986 last week from 1.1793 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3803 from 1.3686 last week from 1.3546 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD flat. 7.7533 from 7.7533 last week from 7.7543 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.21 from 79.65 last week from 80.36 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.22% from 4.17% last week from 4.28% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.16% from 4.26% last week from 4.29% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.51% from 2.58% last week from 2.69% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$64b from HK$58b last week from HK$55b the previous week. Market down on higher volume. Not a good sign..

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - So where's the risk now ?

6. HK Properties - Rents for HK homes that Jones Lang LaSalle categorizes as luxury, fell about 1.1 percent in the first half of 2013, bringing their losses to about 13 percent since peaking in October 2011.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Earnings - Nearly half of the S&P 500 companies have reported their third-quarter results so far, and 69 percent have beaten Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates. The technology sector has led the way, beating expectations 84 percent of the time.

9. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 27, 2013:-



Now What ?

US Earnings Season is here and there wont be any tapering for a while.

The noise around the Syria, Iran & US Deficits are in the background. Europe is struggling along while China is supposedly still ok.

There could be some new money from the new month but what happens after that ?

And why would you want to buying at this valuation ?



The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$94.60 from US$97.90 last week from US$100.86 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1316 from US$1352 last week from US$1316 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.86 from US$22.59 last week from US$21.94 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.30 from US$3.27 last week from US$3.29 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1761 from 1760 last week from 1745 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23250 from 22698 last week from 23340 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2150 from 2132 last week from 2194 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3201 from 3205 last week from 3193 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14202 from 14088 last week from 14562 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 98.72 from 97.40 last week from 97.79 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.5513 from 2.5519 last week from 2.5479 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9437 from 0.9585 last week from 0.9675 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1735 from 1.1857 last week from 1.1986 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3488 from 1.3803 last week from 1.3686 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7521 from 7.7533 last week from 7.7533 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.72 from 79.21 last week from 79.65 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.08% from 4.22% last week from 4.17% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.97% from 4.16% last week from 4.26% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.62% from 2.51% last week from 2.58% the previous week.

4. Reserve Bank of India raises repo rate by 25bp to 7.75%


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower; HK$55b from HK$64b last week from HK$58b the previous week. Market up on lower volume. Not a good sign..

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - What are yo going to do with those risks that you cant see ?

6. Properties - Barclays Plc joined UBS AG (UBSN) and Bank of America Corp. in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting home prices will fall at least 30 percent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Market Direction- Flat


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 10, 2013:-



How hign can it go ?

As the US market continues to grind higher, the "experts" are having diverging opionions on how high it can go.

Some say that as long as interest rates are low, it can still go up for a bit while longer.

However, others are still talking about various risks eg. Europe, China, Deficits, Tapering etc.

As for myself, I think that there would be Window Dressing at the end of the year. However, what happens over the next month, it's anybody's guess..


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$94.35 from US$94.60 last week from US$97.90 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1289 from US$1316 last week from US$1352 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.50 from US$21.86 last week from US$22.59 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.26 from US$3.30 last week from US$3.27 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1771 from 1761 last week from 1760 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22744 from 23250 last week from 22698 the previous week. Bought AAC Tech

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2106 from 2150 last week from 2132 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3177 from 3201 last week from 3205 the previous week.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14087 from 14202 last week from 14088 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.09 from 98.72 last week from 97.40 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.5502 from 2.5513 last week from 2.5519 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9384 from 0.9437 last week from 0.9585 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1700 from 1.1735 last week from 1.1857 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. AUD to MYR[b] - AUD Weaker. 2.9837

6. [b]EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3365 from 1.3488 last week from 1.3803 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7517 from 7.7521 last week from 7.7533 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.21 from 80.72 last week from 79.21 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.14% from 4.08% last week from 4.22% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.11% from 3.97% last week from 4.16% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.75% from 2.62% last week from 2.51% the previous week.

4. Interest rates on HK time deposits with tenures of two to three months - a period that will bridge the year-end reporting requirements - have risen to a high of 1.25 per cent since October from about 1 per cent before.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower; HK$49b from HK$55b last week from HK$64b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How high can it go ?

6. Properties -

Barclays Plc joined UBS AG (UBSN) and Bank of America Corp. in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting home prices will fall at least 30 percent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.