Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of May 12, 2013:-



Higher Higher !

It's been a good few weeks for the S&P.

It has been grinding higher despite some bad news.

Everyone is saying now that it will only end when QE Infinity is stopped.

It's as if you can anticipate and act accordingly.

Looks like everyone has forgotten about stuff like the Flash Crash etc.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$95.97 from US$95.61 last week from US$92.78 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1447 from US$1471 last week from US$1462 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.80 from US$24.08 last week from US$23.97 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.38 from US$3.31 last week from US$3.18 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1634 from 1614 last week from 1582 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23321 from 22690 last week from 22548 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2247 from 2206 last week from 2178 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3444 from 3370 last week from 3348 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14608 from 13694 last week from 13884 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 101.62 from 99.03 last week from 98.04 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 99.94

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4133 from 2.4590 last week from 2.4528 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0017 from 1.0317 last week from 1.0275 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2396 from 1.2731 last week from 1.2714 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2993 from 1.3115 last week from 1.3029 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7610 from 7.7589 last week from 7.7634 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger, 83.14 from 82.12 last week from 82.47 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 3.89% from 3.82% last week from 4.06% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.20% from 4.04% last week from 4.28% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.90% from 1.74% last week from 1.66% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$52b from HK$59b last week from HK$60b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How fast can you run in a plunge ?

6. Properties - Transactions dropping

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of May 19, 2013:-



Higher or Lower ?

While the S&P 500 is grinding higher, HK Equities is going lower, as well as Commodities and the Risk-On Currencies.

Is this the calm before the storm ?

Do you really know what's going on ?

More importantly, will you be able to react when things do not go in your direction ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$96.02 from US$95.97 last week from US$95.61 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1358 from US$1447 last week from US$1471 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.20 from US$23.80 last week from US$24.08 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.31 from US$3.38 last week from US$3.31 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1667 from 1634 last week from 1614 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23083 from 23321 last week from 22690 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2283 from 2247 last week from 2206 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3449 from 3444 last week from 3370 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15138 from 14608 last week from 13694 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103.17 from 101.62 last week from 99.03 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4038 from 2.4133 last week from 2.4590. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.973 from 1.0017 last week from 1.0317 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2233 from 1.2396 last week from 1.2731 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2833 from 1.2993 last week from 1.3115 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7632 from 7.7610 last week from 7.7589 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 84.25 from 83.14 last week from 82.12 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 3.90% from 3.89% last week from 3.82% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.21% from 4.20% last week from 4.04% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.95% from 1.90% last week from 1.74% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$57b from HK$57b last week from HK$52b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - In a Flash Crash, I know that I would not be able to run fast. So I'm raising Cash while everyone has been reducing Cash.

6. Properties - Low transactions should lead to lower prices when everything drops. But will everything drop when the printing presses are working 24 / 7?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 26, 2013:-

Waiting for the "M"



The Japanese plunge caught a lot of people by surprise.

And while the money on the side-lines bought on the dip, it was also a selling opportunity for those who did not managed to get out in the first place.

As for myself, I'm waiting for the "M" to form before buying some puts.

I'm also lowering my existing exposure to Equities.

But the "experts" are saying that QE Infinity will continue to support the market.

Or will this lead to a "Triple Top" first ?





The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93.95 from US$96.02 last week from US$95.97 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1383 from US$1358 last week from US$1447 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.34 from US$22.20 last week from US$23.80 previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.30 from US$3.31 last week from US$3.38 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1650 from 1667 last week from 1634 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22619 from 23083 last week from 23321 the previous week. Sold China Unicom.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2289 from 2283 last week from 2247 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3393 from 3449 last week from 3444 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14612 from 15138 last week from the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101.01 from 103.17 last week from 101.62 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4002 from 2.4038 last week from 2.4133 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.965 from 0.973 last week from 1.0017 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2205 from 1.2233 last week from 1.2396 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Strong. 1.2934 from 1.2833 last week from 1.2993 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7636 from 7.7632 last week from 7.7610 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 83.60 from 84.25 last week from 83.14 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.14% from 3.90% last week from 3.89% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.42% from 4.21% last week from 4.20% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.01% from 1.95% last week from 1.90% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$66b from HK$57b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - So how did you react when Japan plunged ?

6. Properties - So how's bid vs ask gap on your investment property lately ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Mixed


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 02, 2013:-

Formation of the "M" ?



The S&P 500 does not look that strong.

And Japan is continuing to be volatile.

So it looks like "Selling in May and Going Away" is still the right strategy.

Although I dont think that there would be any real "tapering" by Helicopter Ben, the market seems to believed that it would be the next step.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$91.61 from US$93.95 last week from US$96.02 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1388 from US$1383 last week from US$1358 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.20 from US$22.34 last week from US$22.20 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.27 from US$3.30 last week from US$3.31 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1631 from 1650 last week from 1667 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22392 from 22619 last week from 23083 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2301 from 2289 last week from 2283 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3311 from 3393 last week from 3449 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13775 from 14612 last week from 15138 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 100.53 from 101.01 last week from 103.17 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4508 from 2.4002 last week from 2.4038 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9547 from 0.965 last week from 0.973 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2072 from 1.2205 last week from 1.2233 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Strong. 1.2989 from 1.2934 last week from 1.2833 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7628 from 7.7636 last week from 7.7632 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 83.38 from 83.60 last week from 84.25 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.16% from 4.14% last week from 3.90% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.44% from 4.42% last week from 4.21% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.13% from 2.01% last week from 1.95% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$61b from HK$66b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How's your exposure to Equities ?

6. Properties - Have you looked at the demand lately ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Setting -Up ?

8. US Market Direction- Lower. So do you really think that there would be some tapering ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 09, 2013:-



Transition

Are the markets in transition now ?

Are you expecting it to go down or up from here ?

While the US markets are grinding higher, the rest of the world is not doing so well.

Do you really know what's going on ?

Can you really predict the market direction from your charts and your fundamental analysis ?

As for myself, I'm hitting my third month now where I have not really done much trading.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$96.26 from US$91.61 last week from US$93.95 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1384 from US$1388 last week from US$1383 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.64 from US$22.20 last week from US$22.34 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.27 from US$3.27 last week from US$3.30 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1643 from 1631 last week from 1650 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21575 from 22392 last week from 22619 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2211 from 2301 last week from 2289 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3185 from 3311 last week from 3393 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 12878 from 13775 last week from 14612 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 97.5 from 100.53 last week from 101.01 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4771 from 2.4508 last week from 2.4002 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9515 from 0.9547 last week from 0.965 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1883 from 1.2072 last week from 1.2205 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Strong. 1.3219 from 1.2989 last week from 1.2934 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7625 from 7.7628 last week from 7.7636 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 81.67 from 83.38 last week from 83.60 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.19% from 4.16% last week from 4.14% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.55% from 4.44% last week from 4.42% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.17% from 2.13% last week from 2.01% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$58b from HK$61b last week from HK$66b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you really what's safe and what's not ?

6. Properties - Transition ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 16, 2013:-



Volatility

Are you now hoping for the market to drop so that you can buy ?

Or are you waiting for it to go up so that you can sell ?

In the meantime, are you able to stomach the volatility ?

Do you think that you are nimble enough to trade this type of market ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$97.72 from US$96.26 last week from US$91.61 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1388 from US$1384 last week from US$1388 83 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21.96 from US$21.64 last week from US$22.20 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.20 from US$3.27 last week from US$3.27 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1627 from 1643 last week from 1631 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20969 from 21575 last week from 22392 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2162 from 2211 last week from 2301 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3161 from 3185 last week from 3311 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 12687 from 12878 last week from 13775 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 94.22 from 97.5 last week from 100.53 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4889 from 2.4771 last week from 2.4508 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9578 from 0.9515 last week from 0.9547 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1990 from 1.1883 last week from 1.2072 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.19; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Strong. 1.3346 from 1.3219 last week from 1.2989 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7615 from 7.7625 last week from 7.7628 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 80.67 from 81.67 last week from 83.38 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.28% from 4.19% last week from 4.16% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.59% from 4.55% last week from 4.44% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.13% from 2.17% last week from 2.13% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$67b from HK$58b last week from HK$61b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you really know what are the risks in this type of market ?

6. Properties - Singapore Hotel rates are dropping by 10% - 20%

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 23, 2013:-



Market Direction

Do you really know what's happening in the market now ?

Do you really think that Helicopter Ben will taper things ?

Do you really know how second quarter earnings will be ?

Do you really know where China, Europe, Japan and the Middle East are heading ?

Do you really know where Oil, Gold and the other Commodities are heading ?

Do you really know where interest rates and bonds are heading ?

Do you really know where the various currencies are heading ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93.95 from US$97.72 last week from US$96.26 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. S$1298 from US$1388 last week from US$1384 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$20.04 from US$21.96 last week from US$21.64 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.10 from US$3.20 last week from US$3.27 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1592 from 1627 last week from 1643 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20263 from 20969 last week from 21575 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2073 from 2162 last week from 2211 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3124 from 3161 last week from 3185 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13230 from 12687 last week from 12878 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 97.83 from 97.50 last week from 100.53 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5116 from 2.4889 last week from 2.4771 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9218 from 0.9578 last week from 0.9515 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1758 from 1.1990 last week from 1.1883 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.19; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3118 from 1.3346 last week from 1.3219 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7587 from 7.7615 last week from 7.7625 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger, 82.32 from 80.67 last week from 81.67 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.62% from 4.28% last week from 4.19% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.91% from 4.59% last week from 4.55% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.53% from 2.13% last week from 2.17% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$70b from HK$67b last week from HK$58b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How much are you willing to lose before you cut your losses ?

6. Properties - Singapore Hotel rates are dropping by 10% - 20%

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Setting -Up ?

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 30, 2013:-



Calm after the storm ?

Is this the calm after the storm ?

Or the calm before the next storm ?

And what has really change over the past 3 months ?

Has the US economy really improved that much, that interest rates would be spiking soon ?

Has helicopter Ben really stopped throwing money around ?

Has China really slowed down that much ?

Has Europre fully recovered ?

Does Japan fully understand the unintended consequences of their actions ?

A lot of moving parts nowadays and it's so funny to see the "experts" on CNBC pushing their own opinion as if they know everything ..


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$96.49 from US$93.95 last week from US$97.72 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1235 from S$1298 last week from US$1388 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.59 from US$20.04 last week from US$21.96 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.05 from US$3.10 last week from US$3.20 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1606 from 1592 last week from 1627 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20803 from 20263 last week from 20969 the previous week. Bought Tencent.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 1979 from 2073 last week from 2162 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3150 from 3124 last week from 3161 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13677 from 13230 last week from 12687 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.20 from 97.83 last week from 97.50 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4910 from 2.5116 last week from 2.4889 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9218 from 0.9578 last week from 0.9515 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1594 from 1.1758 last week from 1.1990 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.19; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3012 from 1.3118 last week from 1.3346 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7568 from 7.7587 last week from 7.7615 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger, 83.14 from 82.32 last week from 80.67 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.55% from 4.62% last week from 4.28% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.77% from 4.91% last week from 4.59% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.49% from 2.53% last week from 2.13% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$82b from HK$70b last week from HK$67b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you know that you dont know ?

6. Properties - Will the new cooling measures work ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Time to short ?

8. US Market Direction- Higher but was it because of Window Dressing ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of July 7, 2013:-


US Earnings Season Again



It's US earnings season again.

And will it be the catalyst to push the market higher ?

Or the trigger to take the market lower ?

Maybe US earnings will not affect the market ths time since you have Europe, Egypt, Japan and China to also worry about.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$103.63 from US$96.49 last week from US$93.95 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1222 from US$1235 last week from S$1298 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$18.86 from US$19.59 last week from US$20.04 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.07 from US$3.05 last week from US$3.10 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1629 from 1606 last week from 1592 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20855 from 20803 last week from 20263 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2007 from 1979 last week from 2073 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3170 from 3150 last week from 3124 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14310 from 13677 last week from 13230 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 101.22 from 99.20 last week from 97.83 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4881 from 2.4910 last week from 2.5116 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9064 from 0.9218 last week from 0.9578 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1615 from 1.1594 last week from 1.1758 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.19; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2830 from 1.3012 last week from 1.3118 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7546 from 7.7568 last week from 7.7587 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger, 84.45 from 83.14 last week from 82.32 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.42% from 4.55% last week from 4.62% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.66% from 4.77% last week from 4.91% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.74% from 2.49% lst week from 2.53% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$59b from HK$82b last week from HK$70b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you really know what are the safe assets ?

6. Properties - Cooling measures in Malaysia

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Setting up ?

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of July 14, 2013:-



New High for the S&P 500

While you were worrying about the Fed's Tapering, Quarterly Earnings, Rising Interest Rates etc., the S&P 500 just made a new high.

Do you really know what's going on ?

And do you really think that you are able to analyze things better than the next guy ?

Or have more info than the next guy ?

Or maybe able to read the charts much better than the next guy ?



The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$106.25 from US$103.63 last week from US$96.49 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1283 from US$1222 last week from US$1235 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$19.86 from US$18.86 last week from US$19.59 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.15 from US$3.07 last week from US$3.05 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1680 from 1629 last week from 1606 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21277 from 20855 last week from 20803 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2039 from 2007 last week from 1979 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3236 from 3170 last week from 3150 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14506 from 14310 last week from 13677 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 99.29 from 101.22 last week from 99.20 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5175 from 2.4881 last week from 2.4910 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9045 from 0.9064 last week from 0.9218 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1414 from 1.1615 last week from 1.1594 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.19; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3067 from 1.2830 last week from 1.3012 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7587 from 7.7546 last week from 7.7568 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.94 from 84.45 last week from 83.14 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.48% from 4.42% last week from 4.55% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.78% from 4.66% last week from 4.77% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.58% from 2.74% last week from 2.49% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$56b from HK$59b last week from HK$82b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Arrogance, Ignorance, Fear & Greed

6. Properties - Property Agents demonstrating in HK

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- New High


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.